Cindicator Bot: December summary
2017 was a huge year for crypto assets. The total cryptocurrency market cap skyrocketed from $15 billion in January to over $600 billion by the year’s end. December proved to be an exceptionally busy month, both for the crypto market as a whole and for Cindicator, with the release of the Cindicator Bot marking a major milestone. In this post we will provide an overview of the market, offer statistics about indicators, including details of the best performing indicators over the past month, and discuss the potential for development.
Crypto in December
In December 2017 we saw both a new all-time high in the price of the first decentralised digital currency, Bitcoin (it reached nearly $20,000 in the middle of December), and subsequently what was probably its nastiest correction in 2017.
In addition, there were a few changes to the top five cryptocurrencies by market cap when comparing the beginning and end of the month. On 29 December, the digital currency Ripple surged nearly 56% to an all-time high, and became the second most valuable digital coin by market cap, surpassing Ethereum. Cardano (ADA), which started the month as the ninth most valuable cryptocurrency, finished in fifth place.
3 December 2017
31 December 2017
Source: coinmarketcap.com
Indicator stats
From 11 to 31 December Cindicator Bot users took advantage of 128 indicators — 17 Beginners, 29 Traders and 82 Experts. The first month of operation showed that the Expert plan is clearly the most valued by the community. The distribution of the different indicators could be subject to change with alterations to the pricing model. The Beginner and Trader plans could therefore become a more enticing prospect in future, with an increase in the number of indicators available on the plans or the introduction of new types of indicators for the plans.
{Distribution by type of indicator and by plan}
Among all the indicators for December it was the crypto indicators which prevailed. Nevertheless, Cindicator users received a relatively high number of indicators for traditional markets. The distribution was 7:3.
As many users will have noticed, some of the events for which we sent out indicators in December have yet to take place. To assess a product’s key indicator, we will take into account only those events which we can be assured have taken place. Of the 128 indicators for December 58 are now closed, and we are still waiting to learn the results for the remaining events.
The key indicator of the value of Cindicator Bot is the accuracy of the indicators themselves. So how did they fare in December? Among all the events where the outcome is already known, the indicators were correct in 72.41% of cases. This is a very significant result for the first month. Think about it this way — Hybrid Intelligence was consistently able to predict the outcome of three in four events during a very volatile December.
On top of that, we believe that our most important achievement is ensuring that this level of accuracy is stable and sustainable over time — we can confirm this by looking at the results of prior predictions.
Next, we’ll describe more examples of the most successful indicators for December.
Example: Market Events indicator (graphic + description)
Take a look at this example from the Market Events indicator for Ripple:
A couple of our token holders using the beginner plan told us that they purchased Ripple on the strength of our indicator alone, since it was very bullish (94%!) This indicator was sent to all token holders starting with the Beginners at 15:00 UTC on 20 December. As we can see, if they held onto their Ripple even for just two weeks they would have made a very high profit. The price of Ripple at the moment the indicator was sent out was $0.7 — at the time of writing it has risen to $3.3 on the Bitfinex exchange. Those who followed the Price Level indicators at the same time (sent to Experts) gained even more insight into the asset, including specific price levels and the likelihood of them being achieved.
Example: min/max for fiat (graphic + description)
We sent these weekly S/R levels for WTI Crude Oil Futures at 14:00 UTC on Monday, 11 December. In this case neither the support nor the resistance levels were breached.
We can also see cases where support or resistance levels were breached. The point of these levels is that if they are breached, the price rise or drop happens very quickly. Thus, hybrid levels act like normal S/R levels — the breaches occur when traders’ attention is concentrated.
Example: support/resistance levels for crypto
Take a look at the example of the crypto min/max indicator we sent to our community at 15:00 UTC on Monday, 25 December. Despite the high volatility of Bitcoin, these support and resistance levels worked very effectively. For example, the resistance level was $16,555 and the real maximum level of Bitcoin was $16,494. In our opinion, this was a fantastic prediction considering the high degree of market uncertainty.
Example: Price Level indicator for fiat
The VRX indicator was sent at 14:20 UTC on Monday, 11 December, right before Wall Street opened. This indicator could have generated at least 8.5% gross profit for those who followed it if they bought VRX stock right when the indicator was sent and sold when the target price was reached.
Example: Price Level indicator for crypto
This example shows how our token holders could make use of Price Level indicators. We sent two indicators for NEO -– the first was sent on 11 December and the second at 20:00 UTC on Thursday, 14 December. Traders noted a bullish sentiment for NEO, and Hybrid Intelligence predicted that NEO would surge at least as high as $80. Both indicators proved accurate. NEO is now about to breach the $100 level (as of 5 January).
Example: ICO ranking
In the last month we published two ICO rankings, both of which are still active. It is reassuring to see that both ICOs placed first by Hybrid Intelligence are currently showing very strong growth.
Verify’s CRED tokens were ranked first in the Cindicator rating from 2 December 2017. CRED’s dollar price peaked at around 20 times that of the ICO price (as of 5 January).
Bounty0x’s BNTY token was placed first in the rating from 14 December. BNTY’s dollar price also peaked at around 20 times that of the ICO price (as of 5 January).
This indicator is sent to all token holders using the Trader plan (token holders must be in possession of at least 200,000 CND tokens). Therefore, any trader who received this indicator and took part in the ICO could have received as much as a 20-fold return on dollar invested capital for CRED and Bounty0x alike.
Some of our token holders shared their experiences of not being able to participate in these ICOs (either due to lateness or low thresholds on the maximum volume of participation) — they simply bought the tokens on the market after the ICO at a price around two times higher than the ICO price. They still managed to make a five- to sevenfold profit on both tokens.
Development: recent updates and further plans
In December we continued to work on increasing the stability of our product infrastructure. Many internal procedures and even the entire project architecture underwent significant changes. Judging by the more relaxed disposition of our support team compared with the first week after the release, we can safely say that we are on the right track.
Users noticed a number of functional innovations with the release of version 1.1. The bulk of the functionality in this update was the result of feedback from the community. We changed the UI/UX structure, added a more convenient option for receiving information about indicators for the current day, and improved the functionality for notification settings.
Our main priority is improving the accuracy of our indicators, and a significant part of our development team’s work goes towards making that happen. We have tripled the number of data scientists working with us in house, and continue to make constant improvements to the accuracy of our indicators, using the latest models and taking into account the increasing number of factors which govern each concrete forecast. In a forthcoming article we will describe in greater detail the results of the ML team’s work, our self-correcting ensemble models that we are already using to increase the indicators’ accuracy, and future plans to expand the team.
In addition to the work of the data science team, our medium-term plans include improvements to the UX/UI architecture and adding new functions for Cryptometer, and working on new types of indicators. The views of the community are a priority for us, and so we’re going to let you in on a little secret. The first community sprint for analytic products will launch next week. Holding a community sprint will allow us to share the most important directions in the development of our products bringing the maximum possible benefit to the ecosystem, and will allow us to forge new links with the core of our community.
2018 is going to be huge. We’re excited to have you on board.
Stay tuned and happy trading,
The Cindicator team.
This report was created by:
Vlad Kazakov, Product Manager
Nodari Kolmakhidze, Chief Investment Officer
Kate Kurbanova, Head of Analytics
