COPtimism: Five Reasons to Be Optimistic About Climate
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The COP 21 deception

The earth athmosphere is thin like an orange peel

There are some positive aspects of the COP 21.

But they also are a trompe l’oeil !

The COP 21 is a Worldwide diplomatic success : it has been signed off unanimously by nearly 200 delegations. To me this unanimity is very suspicious, as the easiest way to get unanimity is to reduce the content/quality of the document. i.e. A lower common denominator.

And that is exactly what happened :

The Carbon Price policy is favoured by most economists (including Jean Tirole, Nobel prize 2014). But as Saudi Arabia furrowed their brows, the issue has been immediately forgotten about.

The COP 21 objectives are « Intended Nationally Determined Contributions » (INDC). It is a major problem, as each Nation defines its own methodology : there is no way these INDCs can be compared nor added ! And there are solid reasons for that :

the initial reference points are different : 1990, or 2005, etc…

the « contributions » will give effects at different dates ; 2035, or 2050, etc

the INDCs are measured differently : % of GNP, or per head, or by number of pollution peaks,…

the objective achievement may be conditional : international aid received, or increase in nuclear energy, etc…

the internartional aids are approved as concepts, but it is not defined who will give what to whom, and when.

In order to limit the increase at « more than 2°C » implies a REVOLUTION in the Western Way of life. And the less wealthy countries should receive huge aids in order to improve their situation while protecting the environment.

It is unlikely that Policicians who propose a difficult path will be elected. Therefore, I am quite pessimistic : people will accept efforts only when they will have no other choice.. i.e. Too late…

(in french) :

Jean P. Ciron

The earth athmosphere is thin like an orange peel