CFB Week 3 Predictions

Must Watch Games

#2 Florida State 23 @ #10 Louisville 27 (11:00 AM CT on ABC)
I still don’t understand why this game got the 11AM kickoff slot, but it’ll be ok because this is sure to be fun AND we get to see Lamar Jackson play. Coming into this season, I really liked what Florida State has to offer and still do; however, this is a rough first road game to ask your Freshman QB to win. While I do think Deondre Francois is capable of leading FSU to a victory in this game, I just like Lamar Jackson and Louisville’s offense more — especially with it being a home game. I expect FSU’s pass rush to contain Lamar Jackson’s running ability, and his improved passing ability (and receivers to not dropping his passes) will win Louisville this game. A couple of things to leave you with on this game: 1.) FSU will be without their best playmaker in the secondary, Derwin James AND 2.) FSU has allowed eleven 20 yard pass plays in their first 2 games (ranking them last nationally in that category)

#1 Alabama 17 @ #19 Ole Miss 13 (2:30 PM CT on CBS)
This game reminds me alot of the 2013 Alabama @ Texas A&M game. They are both games where Alabama is on the road trying to avenge a loss to that team from the previous season. Both of Alabama’s opponents feature returning, outspoken QBs (Johnny Manziel & Chad Kelly). And in both games Alabama is heavily favored to win. Now the win thing that is different is that TAMU was trying to win 2 in a row and Ole Miss is trying to win 3 in a row. I think that is why people are jumping on the bandwagon for Alabama to steamroll the Rebels. While that’s a valid and plausible assumption, I think Ole Miss is going to go out there and compete with Alabama the entire game. This is going to be a tough first road game for Jalen Hurts, and unless Alabama’s rushing attack can come to life this week, I see this game being a defensive struggle. I expect Ole Miss to still play with tempo, but slow it down a bit to keep their defense more fresh. Watching the psychological war between Coach Freeze and Coach Saban will be a fun part of this game.

#22 Oregon 41 @ Nebraska 49 (2:30 PM CT on ABC)
This game just sneaks into my Must Watch games because there really aren’t many good games on during the mid-afternoon cycle. When I look at this game, I honestly have no idea on who to pick. Oregon has a brand new FCS grad transfer QB who is unproven on the road, and Nebraska lost their first 5 games of last season by 5 points or less. The one thing I have picked up on is that Oregon’s defense is bad this year. Brady Hoke (yes the former Michigan HC) was brought in expecting to cure Oregon’s defensive woes, but sadly for Ducks fans, they are still getting torched up and down the field. And it has to be encouraging for Nebraska fans that they put away a team in the 4th quarter last week — even if it was only Wyoming. With all that said, I think Nebraska will find a way to contain Royce Freeman on the ground (averaging 9+ yards per carry this season) and it will come down to who can make the less mistakes at QB. In this category, I’m going to go with Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong over Oregon’s Dakota Prukop mainly because he’s more experienced and playing at home; however, he has been prone to mistakes (aka he threw 16 INTs last year) during his career. This will be a fun shootout to keep up with during that somewhat boring mid-afternoon slate.

#17 Texas A&M 24 @ Auburn 27 (6:00 PM CT on ESPN)
During preseason predictions, many in the college football media dubbed this game as the 2016 Anxiety Bowl. It can be assumed that both Gus Malzahn and Kevin Sumlin both came into this season on the hot seat, and that a loss for either in this game could tipping point. I honestly don’t think it is nearly that dramatic, but it is a very important game to get SEC play started for both teams. Some might have found it surprising that Auburn is the favorite in Vegas to win this game, but I really like the Tigers chance for a win. From what we’ve seen on the defensive side, Auburn’s front 7 will be able to challenge A&M’s inconsistent O-Line and put pressure on Trevor Knight. This will be a key as A&M’s big physical WRs definitely have the advantage against our secondary. The key in this game will be Auburn’s run game. Last year A&M was dreadful against the run and superb against the pass. I don’t think Sean White is going to have an easy go at it throwing against A&M’s pass rush and secondary, but I do think Kerryon Johnson and Kam Pettway can carry the load and wear out A&M’s front 7 by the 2nd half. And with this being a night game in Jordan Hare, I really like Auburn’s chances of finding a way to win.

#12 Michigan State 31 @ #18 Notre Dame 29 (6:30 PM CT on NBC)
To me, this game is hard to predict because we have seen so little of Michigan State. So I’m going to give y’all some stats about these teams 1.) Since Brian Kelly’s arrival in 2010, Notre Dame is 4–1 in home games where both teams are ranked 2.) Since 2010, Notre Dame is 25–5 in home games with only one of the losses coming against a ranked opponent 3.) Michigan State has never beaten Brian Kelly at Notre Dame. From these stats it seems like a no brainer to pick Notre Dame. On top of it all, they have the best player on the field in QB DeShone Kizer. Wellllll, I’m going to go against the grain here and go with Sparty. I’m compelled to pick Michigan State because 1.) their defense is much better than Notre Dame’s 2.) Mark Dantonio has schemed something up in his off week. Most CFB pundits were unimpressed with Michigan State in their lackluster Week 1 win against Furman, but I think that vanilla gamplan was by design — Dantonio wanted to make sure and show nothing. And think about it, why schedule your Bye in Week 2 — unless it’s before a team and coach you really want to beat like Notre Dame and Brian Kelly. This is going to be a very fun coaching battle to watch as the game progresses. Tyler O’Connor will be the key for the Spartans because his passing game will open up the running game for LJ Scott and Gerald Holmes in the 2nd half. I expect this matchup will be the most compelling of the night stint.

#3 Ohio State 17 @ #14 Oklahoma 28 (6:30 PM CT on FOX)
It’s crazy how one not so good game can change everyone’s perspective on a team. After Oklahoma lost to Houston, it seems as though most have given up on this team. They’re weak on defense and one-dimensional on offense. The media has pounced on this team, and I think given them some bulletin board material for this huge game against Ohio State. Meanwhile, Ohio State has steamrolled through their competition. This has got many people picking Ohio State to win by double digits in Norman. I’m just not buying it. I think this Oklahoma team is still very competitive, and will play very well in front of their home crowd. As impressive as Ohio State has looked against lesser competition, they are still a very young team and it is a lot to ask them to go to Oklahoma as the favorite and win. Since Bob Stoops arrival to Oklahoma in 1999, the Sooners have only been a home underdog twice. The last coming in 2000 against Nebraska. They won both of those games, and I think they are going to win Saturday against Ohio State. I expect their defense to look much better than it did against Houston and that they will rely on their run game on offense to pull out the victory.

USC 14 @ #7 Stanford 34 (7:00 PM CT on ABC)
Besides two long TD runs, Christian McCaffrey didn’t look all that great in his 2016 debut. Stanford had a Bye in Week 2 and while that might not seem like the best week for time off, I think it comes at the perfect time for McCaffrey. It gives the Heisman hopeful and David Shaw double the amount of time to gamplan for this conference opener. Plus USC is battling injuries on the D-Line and I think there is going to be alot of pressure on the coaches and team to come through with a win. An interesting stat about this rivalry game is that the underdog has won the last 4 regular season games between these teams. That trend ends this year with a balanced attack from Stanford’s offense, and disciplined defense that will really put alot of pressure on Max Browne. Unless USC can get a running game going in this game, I think it will be a long day for the Trojans.

Sleeper Games

#25 Miami (FL) 27 @ App State 13 (11:00 AM CT on ESPN)
At the time this game was scheduled, Miami probably thought they were being nice to schedule a road game against App State. Present day, the idea doesn’t look so hot as many are picking App State to upset Miami. I just don’t see despite the valiant effort the Mountaineers put up against Tennessee in Week 1. Honestly, I think App State would be better suited for this game if it didn’t have as much attention as it is getting. After their good performance against Tennessee, it has alerted Miami that they can’t sleep on this game and better come ready to play. Mark Richt is going to have the Hurricanes coached up for this game, and I expect Miami’s RBs Mark Walton and Joseph Yearby to wear on the veteran App State defense. Brad Kaaya will play a heady game at QB and Miami will pull away in the 2nd half. I won’t be surprised if App State’s talented RB, Marcus Cox, gives Miami’s defense trouble, but unless Miami beats themselves with turnovers and dumb penalties I don’t see them losing this game. There is one undeniable fact about this game, Boone, NC will be lit come Noon ET on Saturday. Currently tickets are going for $150+ so I’m pretty sure this will be the most raucous crowd Kidd Brewer Stadium has ever seen.

Pittsburgh 30 @ Oklahoma State 42 (2:30 PM CT on ESPN)
An interesting game between two teams that are in much different emotional states. Oklahoma State is probably still wondering what happened last week, while Pittsburgh is still partying for beating Penn State for the first time since 2000. I think last week was an aberration for Oklahoma State — especially on offense. They had to learn the hard way not to sleepwalk through home non-conference games, but I think they come back this week more focused and beat Pitt at home. Mason Rudolph has a big day through the air and Pitt won’t be able to keep up with the Cowboys scoring attack. My one concern for the Oklahoma State is their O-Line play as they have already allowed 5 sacks this season. It’s interesting because they returned all 5 starters from last year’s O-Line. If their struggles continue Pitt has the playmakers on the D-Line that could take advantage of another poor performance from the OK State O-Line. It will be fun to watch how that battle plays out. One interesting stat to leave you with, during Mike Gundy’s tenure at OK State he’s an impressive 25–2 in home non-conference games, despite last week’s debacle. Their only other loss came to Houston came to Houston in 2009.

UCLA 24 @ BYU 20 (9:15 PM CT on ESPN2)
So far Kalani Sitake’s first season at BYU has been crazy — kind of like him. Week 1 it featured with inserting a true freshman kicker to win the game against Arizona. Week 2 was even crazier because BYU forced 6 Utah turnovers, but they all went for naught after Sitake’s ballsy decision to go for the win with a 2-point conversion failed. What could possibly happen in Week 3?? We do know that BYU’s back-to-back-to-back Pac-12 game stint will come to an end with Josh Rosen and UCLA. This will prove to be a very tough test as Josh Rosen will be the best QB BYU will face all season. I think the Cougars do have a good defense, but Josh Rosen will get his and find a way for the Bruins to win. Watch out though for BYU RB Jamaal Williams as he could have some opportunities to get loose against a UCLA defense that was gashed on the ground by Texas A&M and UNLV.

#11 Texas 48 @ California 34 (9:30 PM CT on ESPN)
I just think this game is going to be fun to watch from a shootout perspective. I don’t think it’s going to be quite as high scoring as last week’s Arizona State/Texas Tech game was, but I have a feeling we will see some fireworks. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Cal hangs around for a little while because we all know the can score points with the best of them. In the end, Texas RBs Chris Warren and D’Onta Foreman will be the difference makers as they will be able to wear Cal’s {bad} defense out in the 2nd half. Be sure to tune in for instant offense and alot of points.

Other Games

#21 Baylor 38 @ Rice 17 (Friday @ 7:00 PM CT on ESPN)

Arkansas State 24 @ Utah State 36 (Friday @ 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN)

Arizona State 49 @ UTSA 21 (Friday @ 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2)

Akron 24 @ Marshall 45 (11:00 AM CT on CBSSN)

Georgia State 7 @ #9 Wisconsin 34 (11:00 AM CT on BTN)

Iowa State 10 @ TCU 49 (11:00 AM CT on FS1)

Kansas 24 @ Memphis 35 (11:00 AM CT on ESPNU)

MTSU 42 @ Bowling Green 24 (11:00 AM CT on ASN)

New Mexico 20 @ Rutgers 28 (11:00 AM CT on ESPNews)

Ohio 20 @ #15 Tennessee 42 (11:00 AM CT on SECN)

Temple 13 @ Penn State 38 (11:00 AM CT on BTN)

Vanderbilt 16 @ Georgia Tech 31 (11:30 AM CT on ACCNExtra)

Virginia 22 @ UConn 19 (12:30 PM on ESPN3)

Idaho 21 @ Washington State 49 (1:00 PM CT on Pac-12N)

Florida Atlantic 0 @ Kansas State 27 (1:30 PM CT on FSN)

Fresno State 27 @ Toledo 45 (2:00 PM CT on ESPN3)

UNLV 24 @ Central Michigan 23 (2:00 PM CT on ESPN3)

Boston College 12 @ Virginia Tech 16 (2:30 PM CT on ESPNU)

Colorado 14 @ #4 Michigan 41 (2:30 PM CT on BTN)

FIU 13 @ UMass 20 (2:30 PM CT on ASN)

San Diego State 24 @ Northern Illinois 7 (2:30 PM CT on CBSSN)

USF 38 @ Syracuse 20 (2:30 PM CT on ACCNExtra)

Western Kentucky 35 @ Miami (OH) 24 (2:30 PM CT on ESPN3)

East Carolina 16 @ South Carolina 27 (3:00 PM CT on SECN)

New Mexico State 28 @ Kentucky 31 (3:00 PM CT on SECN Alt.)

Western Michigan 26 @ Illinois 29 (3:00 PM CT on ESPNews)

Eastern Michigan 17 @ Charlotte 20 (5:00 PM CT on CUSA.tv)

Old Dominion 20 @ NC State 35 (5:00 PM CT on ACCNExtra)

LA-Monroe 28 @ Georgia Southern 45 (5:00 PM CT on ESPN3)

Army 28 @ UTEP 32 (6:00 PM CT on ASN)

LA Tech 27 @ Texas Tech 42 (6:00 PM CT on FSN)

Maryland 36 @ UCF 17 (6:00 PM CT on CBSSN)

Miss State 10 @ #20 LSU 34 (6:00 PM CT on ESPN2)

Navy 23 @ Tulane 15 (6:00 PM CT on ESPN3)

South Alabama 35 @ LA Lafayette 31 (6:00 PM CT on ESPN3)

Troy 45 @ Southern Miss 41 (6:00 PM CT on beIN SPORTS)

#16 Georgia 24 @ Missouri 13 (6:30 PM CT on SECN)

North Texas 0 @ #23 Florida 49 (7:30 PM CT on ESPNU)

Texas State 17 @ #24 Arkansas 38 (6:30 PM CT SECN Alt.)

Duke 16 @ Northwestern 17 (7:00 PM CT on BTN)

Buffalo 21 @ Nevada 27 (8:00 PM CT on MWN)

Utah 30 @ San Jose State 19 (9:30 PM CT on CBSSN)

Hawaii 28 @ Arizona 42 (9:45 PM CT on Pac-12N)