CFB Week 4 Predictions

Had a bounce back performance in Week 3! Conference play kicks into high gear this week, and I can’t wait to see what happens!

Week 3 Stats
My Winner Picks: 45–10 (82%)
My Against the Spread Picks: 29–26 (53%)
My Over/Under Picks: 33–22 (60%)

Season Stats 
My Winner Picks: 100–41 (71%)
My Against the Spread Picks: 74–67 (53%)
My Over/Under Picks: 77–63–1 (55%)

Must Watch Games

#12 Georgia 38 @ #23 Ole Miss 27 (11:00 AM CT on ESPN)
Georgia has won as an underdog on the road since 2009. The last two games UGA has looked underwhelming, but the sense I get with this team is that they are going to play to the level of their competition. Nick Chubb has ran for at least 125+ yards and 1 TD against the 5 ranked teams he has faced in his career. I expect that streak to continue and that Jacob Eason will continue his ascent as an SEC QB. UGA will know how important ball control will be in this game and I will be looking for them to eat clock and extend drives to keep Chad Kelly off the field. On the other side, Ole Miss will get their fair share of points, but their spirit has to be damaged after surrendering two 21 point leads in their first three games. I wouldn’t be surprised if they let Alabama beat them again this week because they won’t win with a disheartened effort against this talented UGA team. My worry for the Dawgs in this game is protecting the QB. Eason was sacked 4 times last week and if they can’t shore up some of those O-Line struggles, Ole Miss will definitely exploit them with their potent pass rush.

#11 Wisconsin 9 @ #8 Michigan State 17 (11:00 AM CT on BTN)
After a scare from Georgia State, Paul Chryst decided it was time to shake things up at QB. Alex Hornibrook will make his first start on the road against Sparty. In my mind, this is not an ideal situation for Wisconsin. Especially when you consider how good Michigan State looked last week. Oh and I didn’t even mention that the Badgers best player on offense, RB Corey Clement, is questionable with an ankle injury. I think Michigan State’s offense takes a step back in this game facing a solid Wisconsin D, but I don’t see Sparty giving up many points. Also it’s worth the reminder that for some reason this game is on Big Ten Network so don’t miss it when you’re looking for a game to watch Saturday morning.

#19 Florida 12 @ #14 Tennessee 23 (2:30 PM CT on CBS)
After a lackluster 3 game start, Tennessee finally gets to play in the game they have been waiting for. Somehow, Tennessee hasn’t beaten Florida since 2004. Many were confident that streak would end this year, but after seeing Florida’s nasty D and Tennessee’s struggles on offense this game seems like a toss up now. However, Luke Del Rio getting injured last week has thrown a wrinkle into the equation. Purdue transfer, Austin Appleby will be starting for Florida at QB and I just don’t see how a first time starter goes into a hostile environment and wins. I think Josh Dobbs will step up in this game and make plays down the stretch. The matchup that could win this game for Florida is their D-Line against Tennessee’s O-Line. The Gators have already recorded 15 sacks this year, and should have a great chance in this one to continue their dominance over O-Lines. It will be up to Dobbs to extend passing plays with his legs to give his team a chance to win. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a a couple of defensive TDs scored in this ugly affair.

#7 Stanford 31 @ UCLA 24 (7:00 PM CT on ESPN)
It’s Christian McCaffrey vs Josh Rosen. I can’t wait to see how this star matchup plays out. After McCaffrey torched the Bruins on the ground last year I expect UCLA to stack the box and make QB Ryan Burns beat them. This will be Burns first road start so it may very well come down to his ball control and game management being the difference for the Cardinal. If UCLA finds a way to take away McCaffrey on the ground, I still expect Stanford to find ways to get him the ball. I don’t like UCLA’s chances if they can’t establish a run game. Last week against BYU they were only able to muster 50 yards on the ground. They had two RBs suspended for that game and their status’ for this week is questionable. Rosen is a great QB, but he is not good enough to beat a very good Stanford team by himself. That is why, along with the help of a balanced offensive attack, Stanford will keep their win streak alive against UCLA.

#17 Arkansas 35 vs #10 Texas A&M 31 (8:00 PM CT on ESPN)
Out of all of the games in Week 4 this is the most perplexing to me. TAMU has won the last 4 in this series, and seems to be much more talented the Arkansas. Their D-Line is as advertised and their O-Line looks to be sneaky good. However, since Johnny Manziel’s departure in 2013 the Aggies are 2–5 in ranked vs ranked games. For the first time in September, Bertball (having a steady run game behind 5 humongous people) is in full effect, which is not good for ranked teams. Bret Bielema has won his last 3 games against ranked teams and I smell #4 coming. All of the talk surrounding this game has been about TAMU’s D-Line. It seems that the pundits are forgetting about Arkansas’ massive O-Line that will be ready to play Bertball early and often. Rawleigh Williams will have room to run in turn setting up the playaction pass for Austin Allen. The key to this game is if Arkansas can generate a pass rush and put some pressure on Trevor Knight. If they can’t get to him and he has all day to throw it won’t be good, but I think they’ll play physical and make Knight uncomfortable. This could very well end up being the best game of the day.

Sleeper Games

#18 LSU 20 @ Auburn 17 (5:00 PM CT on ESPN)

It’s the 20th anniversary of the barn burner between Auburn and LSU!

With that announcement out of the way, here’s my thoughts on this game. If Auburn can’t figure out it’s offense against Texas A&M why should we believe they’ll figure it out against an equally great LSU defense. To me, Auburn’s only shot in this game is that Danny Etling plays really bad in his first road game and the Tigers are able to force like 3 or 4 TOs. I think Auburn’s D is good enough to keep them in the game, but they will not win if they can’t force a turnover like last week. To further support my pick, LSU has clear two mismatches in this game: 1.) a dynamic playmaker on offense 2.) D-Line is much better than AU’s O-Line. I hope Auburn can prove me wrong and put together a great performance, but from what I’ve seen so far this season I don’t have alot of confidence that will happen. Like the UT/Florida game I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two defensive TDs in what might be the ugliest game of Week 4.

Oklahoma State 48 @ #16 Baylor 31 (6:30 PM CT on FOX)
Has anyone who watched Baylor this year actually been impressed with them? I know they always have a stupid easy out of conference schedule to start each season, but they have looked flat and inconsistent on offense in their last two games agaisnt SMU and Rice. Obviously this isn’t shocking after they lost their offensive guru HC, Art Briles, but they still have alot of the skill position players from last year. Meanwhile, their defense hasn’t been tested in the slightest and that will undoubtedly change when the Pokes come to Waco on Saturday. After Oklahoma State’s fluke loss to Central Michigan, many probably didn’t see their emphatic bounce back win against Pitt last week. Mason Rudolph threw for 500+ yards and OK State looked like they were playing with a purpose again. I think this is a dangerous game for Baylor because they have looked mediocre and haven’t even been tested yet this season. The Cowboys have a renewed focus and I see them pulling off the upset in Waco.

Other Games

Wyoming 38 @ Eastern Michigan 30 (Friday @ 6:30 PM CT on CBSSN)

TCU 34 @ SMU 20 (Friday @ 7:00 PM CT on ESPN)

USC 17 @ #24 Utah 31 (Friday @ 8:00 PM CT on FS1)

Charlotte 7 @ Temple 24 (11:00 AM CT on ASN)

#13 Florida State 35 @ USF 24 (11:00 AM CT on ABC)

Colorado State 13 @ Minnesota 23 (11:00 AM CT on ESPNU)

Iowa 27 @ Rutgers 23 (11:00 AM CT on ESPN2)

Kent State 3 @ #1 Alabama 42 (11:00 AM CT on SECN)

Nevada 34 @ Purdue 24 (11:00 AM CT on ESPNews)

San Jose State 21 @ Iowa State 31 (11:00 AM CT on FSN)

Central Michigan 42 @ Virginia 21 (11:30 AM CT on ESPN3)

East Carolina 13 @ Virginia Tech 38 (11:30 AM CT on ACCN)

Syracuse 18 @ UConn 28 (12:00 PM CT on CBSSN)

App State 42 @ Akron 34 (2:30 PM CT on ASN)

Boise State 35 @ Oregon State 38 (2:30 PM CT on FS1)

Duke 20 @ Notre Dame 45 (2:30 PM CT on NBC)

BYU 13 vs West Virginia 27 (2:30 PM CT on ESPN2)

Miami (OH) 10 @ Cincinnati 21 (2:30 PM CT on ESPNews)

Miss State 35 @ UMass 10 (2:30 PM CT on ASN)

Penn State 13 @ #4 Michigan 42 (2:30 PM CT on ABC)

Pittsburgh 49 @ North Carolina 34 (2:30 PM CT on ESPNU)

UTSA 21 @ Old Dominion 28 (2:30 PM CT on CUSA.TV)

Wake Forest 31 @ Indiana 27 (2:30 PM CT on BTN)

Tulsa 43 @ Fresno State 28 (3:30 PM CT on MWN)

Vanderbilt 21 @ Western Kentucky 35 (3:30 PM CT on CBSSN)

Colorado 45 @ Oregon 39 (4:30 PM CT on PAC-12N)

Ball State 26 @ Florida Atlantic 28 (5:00 PM CT on CUSA.TV)

North Texas 24 @ Rice 35 (5:00 PM CT on CUSA.TV)

Army 48 @ Buffalo 21 (6:00 PM CT on ESPN3)

Georgia Southern 31 @ Western Michigan 42 (6:00 PM CT on ESPN3)

#6 Houston 45 @ Texas State 6 (6:00 PM CT on ESPNU)

LA Tech 42 @ Middle Tennessee 45 (6:00 PM CT on ASN)

New Mexico State 34 @ Troy 38 (6:00 PM CT on ESPN3)

UCF 35 @ FIU 20 (6:00 PM CT on beIN Sports)

#20 Nebraska 24 @ Northwestern 20 (6:30 PM CT on BTN)

South Carolina 20 @ Kentucky 10 (6:30 PM CT on SECN)

Bowling Green 14 @ Memphis 38 (7:00 PM CT on ESPNews)

#3 Louisville 56 @ Marshall 28 (7:00 PM CT on CBSSN)

Southern Miss 44 @ UTEP 27 (7:00 PM CT on Stream)

LA Lafayette 28 @ Tulane 24 (7:00 PM CT on ESPN3)

Idaho 24 @ UNLV 42 (8:00 PM CT on MWN)

California 48 @ Arizona State 55 (9:00 PM CT on ESPN2)

Air Force 28 @ Utah State 17 (9:15 PM CT on ESPNU)

#9 Washington 41 @ Arizona 17 (9:30 PM CT on Pac-12N)

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