The Arctic is like the ‘new world’ — and the nation that controls it will be golden age Spain. The Arctic will provide vast amount of black gold, control shipping routes, as well as a way to extend that nations sphere of influence. Make no mistake, if the resources and strategic position of the Arctic region are used correctly than the nation that achieves this will be a superpower.
Russia is beginning to do this, it has slowly and gradually claimed the Arctic as its own backyard. Russia is reforming former Soviet Military units and re-building/ expanding old Arctic bases. The point of all of this is to back up Moscow's claims to large chunks of the Arctic.
There are millions of barrels of oil sitting in the Arctic. Russia, for obvious reasons, wants to control this. It is worth noting that this is not the only reason and that there are significant barriers to oil extraction, as currently:
- oil price is currently so low that it is uneconomic to extract these resources;
- the nature of the Arctic and vast amounts of sea ice make it very hard to extract the oil; and
- several other nations claim part of the Arctic, or oppose Moscow’s claim.
Control of the Arctic is vital to Russia for other key reasons, including:
- Russia has always been obsessed warm water ports. The more the ice melts the more ports that Russia can utilise;
- Control of the Arctic gives Russia control over a vital area to hide its submarines ;
- Increased trade and control the Northern Sea Route;
- access to potentially massive quantities of hydrocarbons; and
- the ability to provide a buffer over northern Russia and increase the security of Russia.
This article will look at petroleum in the Arctic, the claims of the Arctic states, the militarisation of the Arctic and the importance of the opening of the North Sea Route.
In my view who ever secures the Arctic and the new trade routes will wield immense political and economic power in the future. There is also the potential to negate some of the effects of china’s militarisation of the South China Sea — In that, control of the Northern route will allow trade to bypass the island fortresses in the South China Sea.
Oil in the Arctic
In 2008 the U.S Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a survey that estimated at least 1/4 of the world undiscovered petroleum resources are in the Arctic. The majority of these resources are claimed to be offshore. The USGS summarises the findings as “ The sum of the mean estimates for each province indicates that 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found in the Arctic, of which approximately 84 percent is expected to occur in offshore areas”.
Obviously, extracting these resources will depend on the price of the resources, exploration and production technologies, environmental concerns, geopolitical and legal concerns and the militarisation of the Arctic, ect.
The point here is that there is lots of potential oil in the Arctic, it’s hard to get and lots of nations want it — If you want to read more about that there is tonnes of great articles floating around.
Global Warming
Whilst most nations lament the oncoming warming of the planet and its side effects the Russian Federation welcomes it. For one this means that Moscow (in the right conditions) may finally extract these vast supplies of oil and secondly it will increase the popularity of the Northern Sea Route.
The Northern Sea Route has the potential to provide Russia with control of one of the world largest trade rous, lower cost of Europe to asia trade and neglect the strategic implications of China’s militarisation of the South China Sea.
Moscow is a major winner if the ice caps melt, and you can see why.
Northern Sea Route
Changes in climate have resulted in hipping lanes are opening that were previously inaccessible. Including, The Northeast Passage which is a shipping lane across the top of Eurasia connecting the Atlantic to the Pacific. Russia’s Northern Sea Route is also becoming more accessible. The Northern Sea Route runs from the Kara Gate to the Bering Strait.
The opening of the Northern Sea Route has huge commercial and strategic implications. For example,
For instance, a voyage from Shanghai to Rotterdam is about
10,525 nautical miles via the Suez Canal, the heavily pirated Strait of Malacca and waters off the Horn of Africa and the disputed South China sea. In contrast a route through the Northern Sea Route the distance is about 8,031 nautical miles — a reduction of about 20%. other examples include:
Yokohama: 11,123 nautical miles (Suez Canal) — 4,589 nautical miles (Northern Sea Route); and
Vancouver: 8,855 nautical miles(Panama Canal) — 6,938 nautical miles (Northern Sea Route).
A major benefit of the Northern Sea Route is that ships can reduce fuel costs, emissions and travel time by arriving at their destination earlier (or use slow sailing to further reduce fuel costs and emissions).
The Northern Sea Route is slowly growing in popularity. However, the conditions remain unpredictable and the obvious restrictions relating to sea ice remain there. Another issue is posed by the fact that ships now need an ice breaker escort — which costs about $400,000 USD.
That is insignificant traffic compared to the approximately 17000 ships that pass through the Suez Canal annually. However, the Russian Federation continues to invest billions in its arctic infrastructure, including in new ports and in nuclear-powered icebreakers. You can see the potential for the Northern Sea Route to become a major sea channel.
To highlight the potential for the use of the Northern Sea Route see the table below
The 13,706,000 TEU Asia-Northern Europe plus the 6,739,000 TEU Asia-Mediterranean is 20,445,000 TEU out of a global total of approximately 61,334,279 TEU. This reflect the potential for almost 30% of total TEU (container trade) to run through the Northern Sea Route instead of through Suez and the South China Sea. I do not have the figures for non-container ships but I would judge figures to be comparable.
“But industry executives and analysts cite a number of challenges for shipping along the NSR. Even during the summer, unpredictable weather and ice floes make navigation difficult. Ships often require an icebreaker escort, which can cost some $400,000, and additional insurance that offsets some of the route’s potential savings. Moreover, Moscow’s control of the NSR and the attendant icebreaking fleet is troubling for some shipping executives, who fear the Kremlin could abruptly hike fees. Finally, while the NSR may provide a viable alternative for shipping bulk cargo such as oil, coal, and ore in the near future, it may be of limited value for container shipping, which operates on a tight delivery schedule. Many analysts say it will take at least another ten years of warming before shipping along the NSR is practical.” — The Emerging Arctic, Council on Foreign Relations
The Players
Russia
Russia claims a largest amount of the Arctic. The Russian claim is based on a claim for an extended Continental shelf whereby Moscow believes that the Lomonosva Ridge is an extension of the Siberian Continental Shelf. The Russian claim does not cross into any other arctic sector of any other Arctic State.
The Russian economy is extremely dependent on fossil fuel revenues, which provide for roughly half the federal budget. The Yamal-Nenets region in West Siberia is home to Russia’s largest reserve of hydrocarbons. Russia’s claim to the Arctic and its resources are essential to the future prosperity of the Russian Federation.
Russia is also increasing it’s military presence in the region. The Russian Northern Fleet is headquartered in Severomorsk, in the Kola Gulf. The Northern Sea Fleet includes about 35 submarines, six missle cruisers and a nuclear powered guided missle cruiser. additonaly, Russia has sever units specifically trainied for actic combat. These include two Arctic motoried infantry bregaded ( the 200th Independent Motor Rifle Brigade and the 80th Independet Motor Rifle Birgade). From what I can tell one brigade will be stationed near Murmansk on the border with Norway and the other in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Further, there are numerous any anti air, air force and artillery asssets positioned by Russia through the Arctic region. It is worth noting that Russia, in its annual Victory day parade rolled out some new Arctic missile systems (which I will write about soon).
This military presence will only increase and looks to further cement as the eyes of NATO are on Ukraine and the Baltic States and Syria.
Canada
Canada is a leading energy producer and the largest foreign supplier to the United States. Geologists believe some areas of the Canadian Arctic hold major reserves, but Canada has trailed other Arctic states in developing these resources. However, interest in offshore exploration has recently grown. Chevron and Norway’s Statoil joined forces to explore the Beaufort Sea in 2012, and Statoil and Canada’s Husky Energy made one of the largest oil discoveries in recent years in the sub-Arctic waters off the coast of Newfoundland in late 2013.
United States
The Alaskan Arctic, including the outer continental shelf in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, holds the largest undiscovered oil deposits in the Arctic region, estimated at about thirty billion barrels. But a lack of infrastructure is a major challenge to development. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline’s throughput peaked in 1988, and its operators are eager to find new resources to sustain its profitability. Industry analysts say oil production off the coast of Alaska could begin in a decade, but note that the shale revolution and environmental concerns have reduced the appeal of remote Arctic energy.
Militarily the US has the best submarines in the region, but aside from that I could only find limited large formation or plans to deploy to the Arctic region. That being said, I would not underestimate the US — and if they decided to make the push north i’m sure they would do it well. Lets just hope they don’t leave it till too late.
Further, the US has its specialist Army of Alaska and its navy is beginning to plan for a future with less ice — by 2030 the US will be ready. (The US currently has very few surface ships that can operate in the Arctic).
Denmark
Greenland is keen to develop the energy and mineral resources that could help the self-governed island gain full independence from Denmark, though some residents and advocacy groups are wary of the environmental risks. Greenland is also moving to unlock the island’s considerable mineral wealth, including rare-earth metal deposits that experts say could provide roughly a quarter of the world’s supply. Denmark has limited Military assets in the region, and whilst its defence force is modern and well trained I do not regard it as capable of projecting power far North.
Norway
Norway is one of the world’s top energy producers, supplying much of Europe’s oil and gas. But Norway’s petroleum production peaked in 2001 and its reserves in the North and Norwegian Seas are declining rapidly. Industry analysts say the country’s hydrocarbon future lies in the Barents Sea, which Oslo opened for exploration in 1981. Norway and Russia resolved a decades-old maritime border dispute in the Barents Sea in 2010 and have agreed to partner in the region on energy development. But experts say environmental sensitivities may impede offshore exploration.
Norway has excellent Arctic troops, and has recently began expanding its armed forces to counter the Russian threat. Again, without US assistance there is little influence that Norway can have in this struggle.
The Key
In my opinion , the way to secure this wealth is to exploit the Western Liberal ideology and I don’t mean that as an insult. If push comes to shove and the west properly responds — Russia loses. If Russia Pushes at the Right stage — forties those gain well a weak Western response grants control of the North to Russia for at least some time. I’m thinking something similar to the way Russia would control the Suwalki Gap. Russia hasn’t forgotten the break up of Yugoslavia, the Independence of Kosovo or the Western Support for nations it views as being in its sphere of influence. If Russia cannot have the old, it will have the new.
To control the Arctic you need to control the Bering straight. The Bering straight is a narrow pass of water between Russia and the US. The US and Russia will militarise this straight — not overtly, but enough to prevent any one controlling this vital seaway — Russia cannot have the US controlling the waters near Greenland/ Iceland and the Bering straight. Russia must also control its Northern border and its new ‘warm’ water ports.
The things to look for are:
- Russia building more ice breakers — with better weapons;
- increasing submarines at its northern bases and sallies in the Atlantic and Pacific;
- positioning missile systems north of Siberia;
- increasing and deploying light infantry further and further North;
- development of new weapons, systems and defences relating to the arctic;
- increased upgrades to existing bases in the North and potential occupation on of uninhibited islands in key shipping areas; and
- the creation of a multi-layered anti-air and ship system covering as much of the oil fields and the strategic Arctic region as it can. — Due to the shape of the North this might be obtainable with key positioning of surface ships, bases, subs and missile systems.
Summary
The arctic is valuable — who ever controls it will control the largest known oil stockpiles in the world and the Northern Shipping Lanes. For Russia this is essential, control of the Arctic will mean a return to a past glory! and its reemergence as a superpower. The West and China need to stop looking in other places whilst Russia builds up its Arctic forces and gain political capital to trade for influence in the north.
