NFL Week 9 Spread Locks

Mike Cortez
Nov 2 · 12 min read
Sports Illustrated

Half of the 2019 NFL season has come and gone. With it have been good games, bad games, surprise teams, epic meltdowns, and too many penalty flags to count. 2019 has been a solid season overall, and to celebrate, let’s hand out some midseason awards.

MVP: Russell Wilson
Runner-Up: Aaron Rodgers

No one expected much out of the Seahawks, and the same goes for Russell Wilson. In fact, there was fantasy buzz that this was the year Wilson fell off. Boy, were some folks dead wrong.

Instead, Wilson has put together a masterpiece through eight games. He has thrown for 2,217 yards and 17 touchdowns, throwing just one interception on the season. Wilson has relied less on his legs, but still rushed for three touchdowns and accumulated 182 yards.

It is not a take to say he has been the main reason his team is 6–2 and right in the thick of the playoff race. He has had to deal with a lackluster receiving core and a subpar defense, which is why he got the nod over Aaron Rodgers, who has been equally superb, and has the best chance to take the MVP out of Russ’ hands.

Defensive Player of the Year: Stephon Gilmore
Runner-Up: Shaq Barrett

The Patriots returned to their roots of dominant defense and savvy game management. For as much praise as Tom Brady gets, and rightfully so, the Patriots are best when their defense is dominant.

That has been the case this year as the Patriot defense has been dominant even for their standards. The secondary has given up only two touchdowns all season and have locked up every top receiver they have faced. If you are looking for someone to thank, Stephon Gilmore is your guy.

Free safety Devin McCourty has gotten the stats, but Gilmore has been the one shining in the shadows. Opposing wideouts have done nothing against him, and in the few times Gilmore has been thrown at he has made the offense pay. He has three interceptions, one touchdown as he has been the backbone to the best unit in football.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Josh Jacobs
Runner-Up: Gardner Minshew II

People that have not been watching will probably go with Kyler Murray. Folks that have watched will know this was Josh Jacobs without a doubt. Okay, maybe a slight doubt because Minshew Magic has been damn good, but Jacobs’ resume trumps all.

Jacobs has been the pillar of the Raiders’ offensive attack. He has immediately stepped in to be a workhorse for Jon Gruden’s squad, racking up 620 rushing yards, 102 receiving yards and four rushing touchdowns through the first seven games of his career.

His strong play has allowed the Raiders to remain in the playoff hunt, and has made Derek Carr’s life much easier. Minshew could catch him if the Jags continue to win and Jacobs gets hurt or torpedos in the latter half of the season. I do like Minshew, but believe Jacobs will follow Saquon Barkley’s lead as the first running back taken in the draft to win the award.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Nick Bosa
Runner-Up: Josh Allen

Everyone knew Nick Bosa would be a manchild in the league, and so far he has done nothing to dispel that belief. Bosa has not only looked like the best defensive rookie, he has a decent claim to Defensive Player of the Year votes.

Through eight games the younger Bosa brother has seven sacks, eleven tackles for loss, one forced fumble and even an interception:

https://twitter.com/Mr_KevinJones/status/1188584743559786496?s=20

It’s a shame because Bosa’s dominance on the best defense in the NFC has overshadowed Josh Allen’s rookie campaign, which has been just as good. Allen also has seven sacks on the year to go along with two forced fumbles. Good thing the Jets passed on him for an interior lineman right?

Comeback Player of the Year: Teddy Bridgewater
Runner-Up: Dalvin Cook

When Drew Brees went down with a thumb injury, most thought the Saints’ winning went with it. Wrong. Teddy stepped in and ran the table, going a perfect 5–0 as the starter. His numbers aren’t as gaudy as Dalvin Cook’s rushing numbers or Cooper Kupp’s receiving numbers, but neither had to come back from what Teddy had to.

Let us not forget how horrific Teddy’s knee injury in 2016 was. Even his surgeon was freaked out. For him to not just recover, but to become an above average starter on the best team in the best conference is phenomenal. His season is likely ‘done’ since Brees is back, but his sensational job in relief plus narrative should be enough to get him the nod.

Coach of the Year: Frank Reich
Runner-Up: Kyle Shanahan

I’ll keep this short. Frank Reich lost Andrew Luck once again, only this time forever. And once again, his team persevered. The Colts are in first place in the AFC South and Jacoby Brissett has looked like a man that was properly prepped. Reich has built an amazing foundation in Indianapolis, that he could probably start Nate Peteman and find a way to win.

Surprise Team of the Year: San Francisco 49ers
Runner-Up: Green Bay Packers

Whoever forecasted the 49ers being 8–0 halfway through the season is a bigger liar than Roger Goodell. No one saw this coming. They have risen from the dead thanks to a dominant defense, strong running game and solid coaching. The most amazing part of their strong start is that for most of it Jimmy Garropolo has not been that good.

Thursday in Arizona could have been the start of Jimmy G’s hot streak (four touchdowns), so the Niners could just be getting started.

Biggest Clown Show: New York Jets
Runner-Up: Atlanta Falcons

You have to be a special type of clown to overmatch the 1–7 Falcons, but as always the Jets get the job done. It’s not just about the 1–6 record for the Jets, they had a brutal schedule to open. The stuff off the field, and some on, has been the difference.

To recap: Substitute owner Christopher Johnson allowed former GM Mike Maccagnan to choose the incorrect head coach (Adam Gase), draft the wrong player (Quinnen Williams is good but they needed someone like Josh Allen), and use up cap space on positions of little impact (middle linebacker and running back).

Johnson then fired Maccagnan three months too late, gave Gase interim GM duties, and allowed Gase to trade Darron Lee to Kansas City for pennies on the dollar. The only thing Gase did right was bring in Joe Douglas as new GM, who appears to have a clue.

The Jets are now 1–6, have traded away the final piece of the 2015 draft that is officially a waste, and will likely trade Jamal Adams in the offseason. And if that weren’t bad enough, Sam Darnold has looked like post-2010 Mark Sanchez on the field.

With the awards now over let’s move on to the second half of the season.

Home teams are in CAPS.


Texans (-1) over Jaguars

It’s tough to go against Deshaun Watson with the year that he is having, but for some reason it’s hard to dismiss the Jaguars in London. Their London magic ended last season with a 24–18 loss to the Eagles (they had won three straight games in London prior) but they still have some Minshew magic on their side.

Minshew Mania started in the fourth quarter in the first meeting of these two, with Minshew single handedly leading his team down the field in the waning seconds of the game. A lot has changed since Week 2, but Minshew’s play has not. He has been the most impressive rookie quarterback, and is good enough to beat bad defenses. The Texans were already mediocre and that was before J.J. Watt was lost for the season. The question is can Minshew beat up the Texans more than Watson beats up the Jags.

The first game was a low scoring affair, let’s hope this one has some more points.

Prediction: Texans 33, Jaguars 30

CHIEFS over Vikings

This game remains in limbo as we await the status on Patrick Mahomes. If he can go, expect the Chiefs to be favorites. Without Mahomes the offense is not as electric, yet Matt Moore proved competent enough to keep them in it against the Packers last Sunday night. Had LeSean McCoy not fumbled the Chiefs may have even won the game outright.

The Vikings have to love this matchup because it allows them what they do best: run the football. Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison should be looking at clear lanes all day, which accomplishes two things: makes Kirk Cousins’ life infinitely easier and keeps the KC offense on the sideline. If Mahomes is able to go though, it’s hard to pick against him in a head to head with Kirk Cousins, but given he dislocated his knee cap it is doubtful he plays, leaving it up to the line to decide the fate of this one.

Prediction: Pending

Update: Mahomes is a no-go, but the line is -3.5 Vikings. Road Cousins is due to show up at some point.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Chiefs 20

EAGLES (-4.5) over Bears

As a Jets fan dying for a good team I am rooting for an Eagles meltdown so they stupidly fire Doug Pederson. Given the Jets’ luck that will not happen, so I feel like the Eagles are turning things around. A strong outing in Buffalo was a start, now they get Mitch Trubisky and the bad luck Bears.

Kicking woes kept them from beating the Chargers at home in an all too familiar scene of ineptitude. If the Eagles defense can force Trubisky to beat them with his arm this game is as good as over. Add in a Jordan Howard revenge game, a healthy Eagles receiving core and I am sold. As for covering though? Eh.

Prediction: Bears 16, Eagles 21

Colts (EVEN) over STEELERS

No James Conner for the Steelers is a big blow for this game. Had he been healthy, this might have been a solid game. The Steelers have held the ship together after it looked like they were headed for the top five of the draft. Since they do not own their first round pick (Minkah Fitzpatrick trade) they have to win as many games as possible.

As ambitious as they may be, the Colts are a better team. What the fuck happened last week against Denver is anyone’s guess. They still managed to get the win, which is all that matters. There is no spread to worry about this time around which makes this choice much easier.

Prediction: Colts 26, Steelers 17

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Titans

Did the Titans beat the Buccaneers last week or did the Buccaneers beat the Buccaneers last week? I’m going with the latter. Nothing about the Titans is good. Their running game is average, their passing game is below average and Mike Vrabel is simply not very good.

Had the refs not foolishly blown the whistle on this bonehead Vrabel decision, the Titans would have paid for being fools.

Carolina is much more of a respectable team. Ron Rivera is a good coach, all things considered, and Christian McCaffrey is one of the five best offensive players in the league. They got their asses handed to them last week in SF, but the Niners are a force to be reckoned with. The Titans are not.

Kyle Allen was brought back to reality, but can get back on track by feeding number 22.

Prediction: Titans 16, Panthers 31


Poo Poo Platter
Warning: Don’t spend much time watching the following four games.

A pretty scarce platter this week thankfully. The AFC and NFC East-heavy platter are the only real games to avoid, with a possible Browns stinker hiding in the weeds.

BILLS (-10.5) over Redskins

The only way the Bills do not cover this game is if the Redskins kill the clock the way they did against the 49ers. Dwayne Haskins will be making his first start, which could add mild excitement, but that is where it ends for Washington.

Buffalo was beaten handedly by the Eagles last week, but they are actually good. The Redskins are not. This should be a get right game for the Bills and a narrow cover thanks to the largeness of the line.

Prediction: Redskins 10, Bills 23

Jets (-3) over DOLPHINS

Something’s gotta give for the Jets. They have managed to mess up any and everything. The trade deadline went well for them until Jamal Adams wasn’t traded. Adams, one of the lone bright spots on this dog shit team, got in his feelings over being traded. What makes it even more odd is Adams admitted he wanted to go to the Dallas!

Winning cures all so the Adams soap opera can be put to bed by beating the shit out of the tanking Dolphins. Miami has made is painfully clear they are playing for Tua Tagovailoa, not to win games. All the Jets have to do is show up and play. Simple enough right? Just give Le’Veon Bell the ball 30 times and don’t fuck this up.

Prediction: Jets 27, Dolphins 13

Browns (-4) over BRONCOS

The Broncos have descended down to tank levels after placing Joe Flacco on IR. You know your team is in a dark place when losing Joe Flacco is a blow. Brandon Allen will get the start in Flacco’s absence, and if you are wondering who the fuck Brandon Allen is, you are not alone.

Apparently he has a good arm and is smart according to his teammates and head coach. That’s nice. This should be a game the Browns use to prove they still have a pulse. Baker Mayfield had enough energy to get spicy with a reporter, so hopefully he has something for the Broncos.

Will he have that same energy for the Broncos defense? Probably not. At least Cleveland can always hand the ball to Nick Chubb 30 times.

Prediction: Browns 27, Broncos 20

Cowboys (-7) over GIANTS

What did ESPN do to the NFL to deserve this? Their streak of bad games continues with the Giants and Cowboys. The best thing about this game for the Giants are the throwbacks they will be rocking.

On the field it is all about Saquon and nothing else. For Dallas, fresh off a bye, there are a few more things to look forward. Beyond the obvious of Zeke and Dak, their offensive line is healthy as are their receiving core. This was no contest in Week 1, and while the Giants should fare better this time around, the final result should never feel in doubt.

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Giants 20


RAIDERS (-2.5) over Lions

It’s impossible to get a read on either of these teams. The Lions are not bad, yet they have not beaten a single team with a winning record. The Raiders have a slightly better resume, yet don’t instill much confidence on their end. They should have beaten the Texans last week but could not contain Watson.

Matthew Stafford possess some danger to him, but overall the Lions do not. If you can contain Stafford early the only worry you have to deal with is garbage time. A steady flow of Josh Jacobs should be enough for Carr and company to put enough points up to win.

Prediction: Lions 23, Raiders 28

SEAHAWKS (-4.5) over Buccaneers

Jameis Winston can’t get out of his own way. The Buccaneers are better than their 2–5 record suggests, but this is an unforgiving game. Last week an early whistle by the refs cost them. Winston didn’t help his case by turning the ball over three times. This is an enticing matchup this week against a Seawhawks secondary that allowed Matt Schaub’s washed ass to throw for 500 yards on them.

Both of Seattle’s losses have come at home which is surprising given their history at CenturyLink under Pete Carroll. The Bucs defense can’t stop the pass which will be their downfall, but is respectable against the run. To win this game Russ will have to piece together another strong game which as safe a bet as any.

Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Seahawks 34

Packers (-3.5) over CHARGERS

Kudos to the Chargers for finally covering a game, it felt like the day would never come. This week they face a much better NFC North opponent, and a quarterback who can accurately deliver the ball over 20 yards.

Aaron Rodgers has been an MVP candidate in his own right, and might be getting his top weapon back finally, Davante Adams. If Adams sits again, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are good enough to carry the load. The dynamic backfield committee has been leaned on by A-Rod and each time they have come through.

This will be a virtual home game because Chargers fans do not exist anymore, and the Packers are better in every facet.

Prediction: Packers 23, Chargers 17

Patriots (-3) over RAVENS

I don’t ask for much when it comes to the NFL, but please let this game be good. Every time we have thought the Patriots have met their match Bill Belichick has crushed our dreams. Sunday night is one of those games.

Lamar Jackson has been the breakout player this season, proving idiots like Bill Polian dead wrong, and leading his squad towards a playoff berth once again. They had two weeks to prepare for the Patriots so they should be giving their best shot, but the scary part is, you can give Belichick your best shot and still get blown out of the water.

Expect the Patriots to force Jackson to beat them with his arm. Jackson certainly is capable, and the best quarterback that Pats defense has faced all season, but as I said it will not matter. As good as Jackson may be, he does not have enough weapons to overcome the dominance of New England’s defense.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 23


This Week: 0–1
Last Week: 9–6
Overall: 61–63

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