Which Running Backs Are Worthy Of A First Round Pick In Fantasy Football?
Summer’s over and while it is sad to say goodbye to Summer 16 it’s time to say hello to another special friend — football. Fantasy football to be more specific. No matter how mundane the NFL has been the past couple of years, fantasy has been there to bail us out. If you have not yet drafted for your league chances are the draft is coming up soon and no one wants to be the guy that wings it.
The top players are as clear this year — if you do not draft Antonio Brown first overall shoot yourself in the head and pray for a better afterlife — as they’ve ever been. Take a top flight receiver if he’s on the board and keep it moving. But what happens when those receivers are gone? You go into the unsafe land of running backs where any player can be a landmine that ends your season. Those landmines are the top projected backs. There are few guarantees in fantasy, but a hyped running back sending your team into the toilet is one of them (i.e. Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson).
Lucky for you I have experience in taking the wrong running back. You’re talking the idiot who has taken garbage like Rudi Johnson, Joseph Addai, and Matt Forte (on his only down year), in the first round over the years. So without further laughter at my running back misfortune and let’s see this year’s projected first round backs.
There is not much to hate about Todd Gurley. He runs the football like he is being shot out of a cannon and he has solid enough hands to be a receiver out of the backfield. His one Achilles heel last season (if you’re being picky) was his quarterback. The flaccid play of Nick Foles and Case Keenum made it easy for teams to key on Gurley later in the season. Gurley still secured Rookie of the Year honors as he ran for 1,106 yards and reached the end zone ten times in just 13 games.
This season that quarterback problem should be behind the Rams. The key word here is “should”. First overall pick Jared Goff has looked decent in the preseason and Hard Knocks, but anyone can look decent on HBO. As long as Goff is average Gurley should be a top flight player in 2016 and certainly one of the best running backs.
You’re in the middle of the first round. The top receivers are gone. Todd Gurley is gone. Do you reach on a quarterback or Rob Gronkowski? Do you take a big reach? These are the questions you must ask yourself if you are in this predicament. One of the possible solutions to your question may be taking Le’Veon Bell.
Bell is out for the first three games for missing a drug test and will be greeted by top run defenses like the Jets upon his return. Still the thought of snagging a player that would be top three if not suspended at a middle pick is enticing. When he’s in your lineup he puts up top running back AND receiver numbers as well as touchdowns.
If you do roll the dice just know that you are wagering on Bell to carry you to the championship game. The risk lies in getting to that championship. In taking him you are passing on guys like A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Gronk, and others who can contribute right away.
If you have a weak stomach pass on Bell, but if you are confident you can win two of the first three or run the table towards the end of your schedule pull the trigger. He has green matchups around fantasy playoff time facing teams like the Browns, Giants, and Colts down the stretch.
For years Adrian Peterson has defied the odds of opposing defenses stacking the box against him. He’s been the Vikings’ only weapon for a majority of his career, but has managed to stay near the top in fantasy production. He’s reached the 1,000 yard mark every season excluding 2011 and has scored at least ten touchdowns every year.
What hurts AP is his quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater once looked like someone who could take some of the load off Peterson’s shoulders. Instead the third year quarterback has somehow put more on his plate. In their playoff loss to the Seahawks last season Bridgewater couldn’t move the chains much if at all. His arm strength might be in the same class as Chad Pennington which is not what you want to hear if you’re Stefon Diggs or Laquon Treadwell.
Expect teams to load the box and force Bridgewater to throw over them. The Vikings offensive line is already suspect so eight guys in the box will not end well for Peterson more times than not.
There are few guarantees in fantasy, but one is a hyped running back not living up to the hype. As of this writing Johnson is the top rated running back in PPR leagues. That should already be a scarlet flag. Yes, Johnson was amazing in limited action last season. In 161 touches he racked up 1,038 total yards (581 rushing/457 receiving) and scored 12 touchdowns.
This year Johnson will not creep up on teams like he did at the end of last year. They’ve heard the hype by now and are not buying this Marshawn Lynch 2.0 narrative. Don’t forget it took Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington to get hurt for him to get the starting role. I could be completely wrong, but I do not see Johnson being a top five running back this season.
When the Cowboys took Ezekiel Elliott fourth overall I laughed. Then I thought what a great sleeper he would be in fantasy this year. Then I laughed again when I saw him rated as the eighth overall player and third overall running back.
Nothing against Elliott, who was a monster at Ohio State last season, but how can a rookie can possibly be this high? All the “experts” keep citing the Cowboys offensive line and DeMarco Murray’s 2014 season. That sounds cool on the computer screen. What the experts are leaving out is that Murray was the sole owner of the Cowboy backfield that season.
Elliott will be sharing carries with Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris early on. Also, are we sure this guy can take a kill shot? What will happen if he catches a toss and comes face to face with James Harrison? Oh and did I mention he might have a domestic violence case on the horizon? Of the five backs on this list this has the most bust potential. Don’t buy into the hype, draft him if it’s the late second round or keep it moving there’s always next year.
Originally published at sidelinesapp.com on August 25, 2016.
