BitDice (CSNO): Market Analysis

What’s BitDice?

BitDice is a profitable Online Casino that accepts cryptocurrencies and It has been online since 2014.

BitDice ( https://www.bitdice.me/ ) had an ICO during August 2017 and they distributed 100 Millions Ethereum Tokens (ERC233 Standard).

BitDice will distribute quarterly 70% of the Profits via ETH to all holders of CSNO.

According to https://dicesites.com/ , BitDice is the 2nd Casino in order of Total BTC wagered (approx 248k BTC wagered).

Why are they having an ICO?

They had an ICO because they needed funds for expanding in this growing Market, adding games, functionalities and lot of marketing.

BitDice team wants to develope tons of new games (such as Poker) and sport Betting (that would help a lot the growth).

What I like about BitDice and CSNO tokens:

It’s a Casino that has been around for years. In fact It’s already well known: if you are a Casino Player, then surely you heard about them.

It’s provably fair: You can check at https://dicesites.com/bitdiceme almost everything about their activity.

It will share 70% of their profits.

It’s operating in a growing market valued billions. It’s also implementing sport Betting.

The Casino (of course, its online since 2014) will share this last Q4–2017 Profit with Token Holders at the beginning of 2018.

The Market

As stated on the BitDice’s Whitepaper, the online gambling industry its valued 46 Billions Dollars and It’s expected to reach 56 Billions Dollars during 2018.

Only 5% of this Market is attributed to cryptocurrency.

Projections says that the global Market could reach 100 Billions Dollars by 2024.

Calculations

Actual Scenario

Differently from the projects I analyzed in the past, here we can do an extimation on an already existing product.

Visiting https://dicesites.com/bitdiceme You will be able to Check how much BTC the BitDice’s profit day by day.

During Q1–2016 BitDice made roughly 170 BTC of Profit

During Q2- 2016 BitDice made roughly 450 BTC of Profit

During Q3–2016 BitDice made roughly 135 BTC of Profit

During Q4- 2016 BitDice made roughly 75 BTC of Profit

During Q1–2017 BitDice made roughly 560 BTC of Profit

During Q2- 2017 BitDice made roughly 330 BTC of Profit

That is an average of 286 BTC for every quarter.

That means that actually, BitDice should have paid an average of

286 BTC * 0.70 = 200 BTC

200 BTC / 100M CSNO = 200 Satoshi (Reward for Each CSNO Quarterly)

200 * 4 = 800 Satoshi (Reward for Each CSNO Yearly)

That means that the price of each CSNO should be located in a range between

800 — 6664 satoshi, meaning respectively a 100% and 12% return yearly.

This is the Math Calculation for the Actual situation doing an average of 2016–2017

(as You can see I’m making all my calculations in BTCs, but quarterly rewards are distributed in ETH. I’m making these calculations with approximation showing you the potential and theorical data about the BitDice, its profit and its rewards).

The Actual Price of each CSNO is 0.16$ (= 3200 satoshi)

This means that Q4–2017, if the average profit is confirmed, Token Holders will gain 6,25% of profit. Yearly it would be 25%.

In the BitDice’s Whitepaper there are 3 Scenarios Mediocre, Optimistic, Extremely Optimistic. They analyzed the Two Primary Input variables: Wager Growth, Attribution to Lower-Edge and Higher-edge games.

I will analyze Profit, that like I said: 286 BTC is the average profit for each Quarter.

Scenario A) discrete growth

During 2016 the average profit was roughly 200 BTC. At the moment during 2017 the average is roughly 300 BTC. So, I’m assuming we will see 400 BTC as an average in 2018 (PAY ATTENTION: BitDice will implement new games and betting, so I think the revenue will be higher, because more bets will be placed.)

400 BTC * 0.70 = 280 BTC (profit shared among token holders)

280 BTC / 100M = 280 satoshi (Reward for each CSNO Quarterly)

280 * 4 = 1120 satoshi (Reward for each CSNO yearly)

1120 * 8.33 = 9330 Satoshi (12% profit Yearly)

So the price will have a range between 1120 - 9330 Satoshi for respectively 100% and 12% yearly profit.

Buying CSNO at 3500 Satoshi would give 1120 satoshi back ( 32% of initial investment only with rewards)

Scenario B) Good Growth

I’m assuming a x3 from the actual profit, because BitDice will add lot of games and will do marketing. An x3 within 1–2 years it’s likely to happen.

300 BTC * 3 = 900 BTC (profit each quarter)

900 BTC * 0.70 = 630 BTC (profit shared among token holders quarterly)

630 BTC * 4 = 2520 BTC (profit Yearly share with CSNO holder)

2520 BTC / 100M = 2520 satoshi (reward for each CSNO yearly)

2520 * 8.33 = 20,992 Satoshi (12% profit Yearly)

So the price will have a range between 2520 - 20,992 Satoshi for respectively 100% and 12% yearly profit.

Buying CSNO at 3500 Satoshi would give 2520 satoshi back ( 72% of initial investment only with rewards)

Scenario C) Very Good Growth

In a YoY analysis (Year over Year), we can see that Bitdice’s profit grew an average of +105% yaarly.

Considering that Bitdice will add more games, do marketing and it will add also sports Betting (tha’ts a huge market).

In my opinion we can expect more than 105%. I will use for my calculation a growth of 140% each Year

So in 2018 We could sea a 140% growth:

286 BTC * 2.40 = 686.4 BTC Quarter

686.4 * 4 = 2745.6 BTC yearly

2745.6 * 0.70 = 1922 BTC (Profit shared among CSNO holders)

1922 / 100M = 1922 Satoshi (Reward for each CSNO)

1922 * 8.33 = 16010 satoshi (12% profit yearly)

So the price will have a range between 1922 – 16010 Satoshi for respectively 100% and 12% yearly profit.

Buying CSNO at 3500 Satoshi would give 1922 satoshi back ( 55% of initial investment only with rewards)

In 2019 we could see another 140% growth:

686.4 * 2.4 = 1647.36 BTC Quarter

1647.36 * 4 = 6589.44 BTC yearly

6589.44 * 0.70 = 4612,6 BTC (Profit shared among CSNO holders)

4612 / 100M = 4612 satoshi (Reward for each CSNO)

4612 * 8.33 = 38423 satoshi (12% profit yearly)

So the price will have a range between 4612 — 38423 Satoshi for respectively 100% and 12% yearly profit.

Buying CSNO at 3500 Satoshi would give 4612 satoshi back ( 131,77% of initial investment only with rewards)

In 2020 we could see:

1647.36 * 2.40 = 3953,664 BTC quarter

3953,664 * 4 = 15814,65 BTC yearly

15814,65 * 0.70 = 11070,26 BTC (profit shared among CSNO holders)

11070 / 100M = 11070 satoshi (Reward for each CSNO)

11070 * 8.33 = 92,215 satoshi (12% profit yearly)

So the price will have a range between 11700 - 92215 Satoshi for respectively 100% and 12% yearly profit.

Buying CSNO at 3500 Satoshi would give 11700 satoshi back ( 334,28% of initial investment only with rewards)

Marketcap Predictions

I previously did calculations about Price, with a mathematical and investment mindset.
About the Marketcap my predictions are the following:

• Q1 2018 = 40M$ marketcap (meaning 0.40$ each CSNO), according to the roadmap they will deliver lot of features that will bring the price up and grow the userbase
• Q4 2018 = 80–100M$ marketcap (meaning 0.80–1$ each CSNO. During 2018 they will add lot gamechangers! Poker and Sports Betting will bring more users and money to the platform and the mobile app will help for achieving it.
• 2019–2020 = 200–250M$ marketcap. This is pure speculation, but I think that after the delivery of new features, more and more users will start using BitDice and a +100%-150% would be possible within 2 years, starting from the Q4–2018 value of 100M.

If you liked my report and you would like to help me with this work, I will appreciate a donation:

BTC Address: 1Lzi9NZ4fp4UMKvFhHx9Yra3BiHJ6X35pT

ETH Address: 0xBB79a38a885bDe06945d553b2126A9c2f9Ba0f61

Waves Address: 3PENM7bwxcqmyq5jNcXAq3iQdgtcfDcCPrt

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This report, and in general everything wrote by me, is not a financial advice. You are free to follow my analysis or not. You need to remember the golden rule: Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose