ETBS: MARKET ANALYSIS (OLD)
THE NEW MARKET ANALYSIS IS AVAILABLE HERE https://medium.com/@CryptoHODLERS/etbs-market-analysis-updatev2-1bf91aec8710
EthBits is an UK company that aims to deliver 2 platforms: Local Ethbits and iTrade.
According to their Whitepaper they will distribute part of their profits to their ETBS Token Holders quarterly.
In this Market Analysis I will take in consideration various scenario and I will make a projection about the ETBS price.
What’s Local EthBits?
Local Ethbits ( https://www.ethbits.com/ ) is a platform that will be launched officially on 7th October 2017. It will be used by users for buying BTC/ETBS and other Altcoins (such as ETH and XMR) with BTC/CASH/SEPA/Bank Transfer/ETBS through an easy and user-friendly layout. In less words the platform aims to give access to the mass to the most famous cryptocurrencies with FIAT money. Local Ethbits also have less fee, only 0.5% compared to Local Bitcoin and, as already said, will allow users to buy many altcoins. These points will help the growth of Local Ethbits.
During the 1st Year 80% will be distribuited to ETBS token Holders, then it will be lowered to 60% during 2nd Year
from the 3rd year 13% of the profit will be shared among ETBS token holders
Let’s take a look at numbers:
Note: Local Bitcoin (at the time of writing) has a daily volume of 40M$
Note 2: I considered a 80% Share:
Scenario A) Discrete Growth (2.5% of Local Bitcoin)
40M * 0.025 = 1M$ (daily Volume on EThBits Local)
1M * 0.005 = 5.000$ (fees collected by the platform daily)
5.000 x 0.8 = 4.000$ (fees Shared among Token Holders daily)
4.000 / 1.6M = 0.0025$ (dollars allocated to each ETBS daily)
0.0025 * 365 = 0.9125$ (dollars allocated Yearly to each ETBS)
Scenario B) Optimistic Growth (12.5% of Local Bitcoin)
40M * 0.125 = 5M$ (daily Volume on EthBits Local)
5M * 0.005 = 25.000$ (fees collected by EthBits Local daily)
25.000$ * 0.8 = 20.000$ (fees Shared among Token Holders daily)
20.000 / 1.6M = 0.0125$ (dollars allocated to each ETBS daily)
0.0125 * 365 = 4.5625$ (dollars allocated to each ETBS yearly)
Scenario C) Very Optimistic Growth (25% of Local Bitcoin)
40M * 0.25 = 10M$ (daily Volume on EthBits Local)
10M * 0.005 = 50.000$ (fees collected by EthBits Local daily)
50.000 * 0.8 = 40.000 (fees Shared among Token Holders daily)
40.000 / 1.6M = 0.025$ (dollars allocated to each ETBS daily)
0.03125 * 365 = 9.125$ (dollars allocated to each ETBS yearly)
What’s the iTrade Platform?
iTrade aims to be an user-friendly exchanger completely customizable. It will be a centralized exchanger aiming to be as decentralized as possible. You can imagine it as a Bittrex with a tradingview ability and an Auto Trade system; In fact would be possible to follow the Top Trader Strategy with an unique built-in Algorithm. ETBS team aims to add also the option for depositing and withdrawing FIAT. ETBS will be used for paying the transaction fees, so the Tokens will have also an usecase inside iTrade. So the points are:
- Aims to be Fully Decentralized (at the beginning it will be centralized)
- ETBS usecase
- Auto Trade Algorithm
- Friendly Layout for analyzing the market
- Provably Fair
- FIAT Deposits/Withdrawals
Profit are shared in the same way of Local EthBits, so: During the 1st Year 80% will be distribuited to ETBS token Holders, then it will be lowered to 60% during 2nd Year. From the 3rd year 13% of the profit will be shared among ETBS token holders.
Let’s take a look at Numbers:
Note: During the calculations I’m assuming 0.2% of transactions fees
Note 2: I considered a 80% share
Scenario A) Low Growth 1M daily Volume
1M * 0.002 = 2.000$ (dollars collected with transaction fees)
2.000 * 0.80 = 1.600$ (dollars allocated to Tokens Holders daily)
1600 / 1.6M = 0.001$ (dollars allocated to each ETBS daily)
0.001 * 365 = 0.365 (dollars allocated to each ETBS yearly)
Scenario B) EtherDelta-like growth: 4M daily Volume (top 40 in exchanger rank)
4M * 0.002 = 8.000$ (dollars collected with transactions fees)
8000 * 0.80 = 6.400$ (dollars allocated to Token Holders daily)
6400 / 1.6M = 0.004$ (dollars allocated to each ETBS daily)
0.004$ * 365 = 1.46$ (dollars allocated to each ETBS yearly)
Scenario C) 10% of Bittrex daily Volume that is 300M$ daily
300M * 0.10 = 30M$ (10% of Bittrex daily Volume at 26/9/17)
30M * 0.002 = 60.000$ (dollars collected daily in transaction fees)
60000 * 0.8 = 48.000$ (dollars allocated daily to Token Holders)
48000 / 1.6M = 0.03$ (dollars allocated to each ETBS daily)
0.03 * 365 = 10.95$ (dollars allocated to each ETBS yearly)
I analyzed these three different scenery with the 1st year Share of 80%. But there are other variables to keep in mind:
- Share will change during 2nd year and from the 3rd year to respectively 60% and 13%.
- ETBS will be used on iTrade for paying fees and some of them will be burnt from ETBS Team, so the Supply will be lowered and each ETBS will be more valuable
- Auto Trade feature can bring more people to the exchanger -> more Volume
- Total Market Cap and Daily Volume will increase in the following months/years
LET’S DO THE THE SUMS
I analyzed separately Local Ethbits and iTrade. Of course we need to sum them, because they are working together at the same time.
In this part of my blog post I will give you a range of values for ETBS: the mininum is given by a mathematical calculation that give you +100% of your investment in ETH, while keeping your ETBS safe in a wallet. The maximum is given by the 12% yearly; In fact a good investment in the market (not cryptomarket) is the one giving you at least 12% yearly (Warren Buffett docet) -> so 100/12 = x8.33 of the value calculated.
Scenario A final:
0.9125$ + 0.365$ = 1.2775$
1.2775 * 8.33 = 10.641575$
Scenario A Final has a ETBS range of 1.2775$ — 10.6411575$, in which you get from +100% of your investment or +12% of your investment, if you bought respectively at 1.2775$ or at about 10.64$ each ETBS
Scenario B Final:
4.56$ + 1.46$ = 6.02$
6.02$ * 8.33 = 50.1466$
Scenario B Final has a ETBS range of 6.02$ — 50.1466$, in which you get from +100% of your investment or +12% of your investment, if you bought respectively at 6.02$ or at about 50.1466$ each ETBS
Scenario C Final:
9.125$ + 10.95$ = 20.075$
20.075$ * 8.33 = 167.22475$
Scenario C Final has a ETBS range of 20.075$ — 167.22475$, in which you get from +100% of your investment or +12% of your investment, if you bought respectively at 20.075$ or at about 167.22475$ each ETBS
NOW LET’S PLAY A MATH GAME
What If iTrade reaches Bittrex on daily Volume and Local EthBits reaches LocalBitcoin?
For iTrade we can do x10 of the scenario C, so:
10.95$ * 10 = 109.5$ (dollars to each ETBS yearly)
For Local EthBits we do x4 of the scenario C (since we did 25% of the daily Volume -> 100/25=4), so:
9.125$ * 4 = 36.5$ (dollars to each ETBS yearly)
MATH game Final:
109.5$ + 36.5$ = 146$
146$ * 8.33 = 1.216.18$
Scenario MATH Final has a ETBS range of 146$ — 1216.18$, in which you get from +100% of your investment or +12% of your investment, if you bought respectively at 146$ or at about 1216.18$ each ETBS
As I said I considered a share of 80% happening during the 1st year, in the table below I’m showing you the same scenery but with the different proportion:
MARKETCAP PREDICTIONS:
I previously did calculations about Price, with a mathematical and investment mindset.
About the Marketcap my predictions are the following:
8–10M by the end of Q4 2017, if ETBS got listed on other exchanger and pay Q4 2017 share (roughly 6.25$ each ETBS)
50M for Mid-2018, because iTrade is expected to be delivered by that date (roughly 31$ each ETBS)
100M by the end of 2018 (roughly 62$ each ETBS)
Today the price of ETBS is undervalued at 1.50$. So It would means a x4 — x40 growth during 15 months.
In any case I see a bright future for ETBS and I think it will be a nice token to HODL during the next couple of years. In my opinion 50M marketcap are reachable easily.
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This blog post, as any posts, is not a financial advice. You are free to follow my analysis or not. You need to remember the golden rule: Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose.
