Inferno Friday market analysis

moonhub
2 min readJul 20, 2018

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Tuesday’s remarkable move upwards completed the inverse head and shoulders we’ve discussed in our previous analyses, punching through long-term downwards-sloping resistance at $6,800 in the process, and also through the daily 50 MA.

This is a great start to ending the downtrend, and the indicators are flipping bullish. Bitcoin is currently sitting around $7,400, consolidating in a tightening range. We will shortly be due the next significant move, whether that is up or down.

Ideally, we’re now looking to break $8k on volume, and maintain that level as support. But bitcoin has made great strides forward since the bottom of $5,775 just three weeks ago. It’s been 7 months since we topped out at $20,000, making this bear market half the length of the last one (assuming that it really is over).

One of the encouraging factors we’re hearing about is that OTC volumes are drying up. Larger traders tend to buy blocks of bitcoin off-exchange, for various reasons. In the past, the OTC market has been thriving. More recently, supply is dropping off — sellers are getting thin on the ground: ‘there are people that are selling, but the deals are not nearly as sweet to be completely honest. The discounts are a lot shallower and the flexibility in negotiations has become much stiffer. In addition, the buy orders have grown to outrageous volumes and the sell orders are coming in smaller tranches from whales with so much $BTC that even a $1k profit suffices.’

We are at a very interesting point in bitcoin’s cycle and history. Interest is enormous. Confidence is returning. Smart and large money is making offers. It’s been a tough bear market, but it looks like interesting times are round the corner.

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