The Balkan Peninsula lies on the intersection of the interests of Europe, Russia and Turkey. As history shows, the region is of extreme importance when it comes to stability of the wider region, having in mind that the Balkans have been called the powder keg- and rightly so! These three powers have been struggling to gain dominance throughout the centuries, and after the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of Yugoslavia the rivalry has been renewed.
The countries of the Western Balkans opted for joining the European family of democratic, stable and prosperous nations through the membership in the Western Alliance and the European Union. The perspective for joining NATO and the EU was a strong incentive for reforms towards democracy, human rights and market economy.
Yet, 25 years after the fall of communism, the Balkan is still unstable. It is still very fragile and characterized with lots of divisions and democratic backsliding. And while nationalism blossoms, the economy is stagnating, the corruption seems that is inborn to us. It is not only governments that lack complete legitimacy- it is also some states that lack legitimacy too! Institutions are weak and rarely efficient. And the list can go on. I dare even not mention the wounds of the past, the insecurities regarding the future and the frustrations of the present.
Last decade has been characterized by the reducing of the influence of the USA and the EU in the region. All of this- the worsening of the conditions inside the region and the disengagement of our strategic partners- puts the stability of the region into question.
There is a paradox related to the Balkans: when the Balkans are stable- no one seems to care about them; but when no one cares- the Balkans become unstable. Then suddenly everyone is interested and everyone cares… till the Balkans are stable again when again no one cares. And the circle starts again.
The multiple crises and the lack of reforms on the side of the Western Balkans as well as the multiple crises on the side of EU brought disengagement with the region and stalling of the reform processes. This created a power vacuum which was exploited by the two regional powers- Russia and Turkey- who wish to project their power in the Balkans for their interests, primarily for the campaign purposes of their leaders but also for some long-term purposes.
These two powers do not offer any real alternatives for the countries of the Western Balkans. Although the Balkans is not so much part of the focus of their foreign policies, yet they do want to influence the region in order to achieve their goals.
Moscow wishes to keep the Western Balkans countries out of NATO and proposes for them to form an alliance of military neutral countries. With this they hope that they will exploit the soft underbelly of Europe by causing further destabilization and divisions in the region of the Western Balkans but also in the wider region of Europe. Russia presents itself as the protector of the orthodox Christians in the Balkans and has special relations with Serbia and the Republica Srpska, as well as with the opposition in Montenegro and the ex-government in the Republic of Macedonia.
Russia exerts its influence in the region by direct meddling in the internal affairs of the countries, blocks Kosovo in the UN and other international organizations, supports the independence of the Republika Srpska and supported a highly authoritative and corrupt government in Macedonia. Also Russia has a strong propaganda at its disposal that is used to add oil to the fire, to reinforce divisions and to create mistrust towards the West. Russia Today, Sputnik, few national televisions, newspapers and web portals have the reputation of being Russian propagandistic tools in the Balkans. Also, Russian businesses invest in some of the countries in the region, thereby buying political influence. Maybe it is most important to say that Russia gives hope to the idea of Greater Serbia. The fact that Russian agents played a significant role in the attempted coup in Montenegro in 2016 and in the violent events in the Macedonian Parliament less than two months ago should not be neglected!
On the other hand, Turkey wishes to play the role of protector of the Muslims of the Balkans. In comparison to Russia, Turkey has a much softer approach and most of the time is in line with the attitudes of its western allies.
If Moscow has special relations with Serbia and Republika Srpska, Ankara has special relations with Bosnia and Kosovo. Its influence is through soft mechanisms such as business investments, but also invests in schools, NGO’s and mosques. A new trend is investment in political parties. It is important to note that Turkey has been pressing for revision of history of the Balkan countries and tries to change schoolbooks in Bosnia, Kosovo and Albania so as to represent the Ottoman Empire as not so cruel conqueror but as good and wise governor. Mr Erdogan exploits the good relations with the Muslims in the Balkans and their political leaders so as to keep his image as protector of the Muslims in Europe.
The most important influence that Russia and Turkey do project in the Western Balkans countries is that they suggest an alternative political and social order and therefore drag the region away from the path of democratization and European and Euro Atlantic integrations. Mr Putin and Mr Erdogan do have high ratings among the supporters of the Balkans’ autocrats. Balkans’ authoritarian leaders actually give and receive legitimacy by their close relations with the authoritarians in Moscow and Ankara. That is why there are frequent visits and statements of support and cooperation. The people in the Western Balkans feel betrayed and abandoned by the West, plus the reforms that we need to implement seem endless and too complex. The political and propagandist centers that support the authoritarians in the region claim that if Russia and Turkey are able to live with so high levels of corruption and authoritarianism- maybe it is normal to live like that and still to be ok. In a situation when we think that we are abandoned by the US and the EU, some would want to suggest that we have an alternative for our foreign policy and for our political, economic and social order.
As a conclusion: Disengagement with the Western Balkans region means surrendering the region to instability and attracting undemocratic regimes to do a negative influence in the countries additionally worsening the situation and drawing away the region from Europe. The WB countries need to reconsider their values and the course where they are headed. They need to stop the adventures with Russia and Turkey and firmly to rededicate themselves towards the western liberal values. On the other hand, Europe needs to reopen the European perspective for the Western Balkans countries by making the accession a realistic possibility in the foreseeable future, by focusing on the Copenhagen criteria.
