Meet (Some of) Samurai Japan
I’ve been watching Japanese baseball for a few years now, and this year will be the first WBC since I started. I’m extremely excited to watch Japan’s squad (aptly named “Samurai Japan”) compete. I’ve decided to convey some of my excitement about the team and add a few thoughts about the roster’s construction below.
Japan’s roster is definitely on the back foot after losing the most dynamic baseball player in the world, Shohei Otani. His loss has a significant impact to both the pitching and the offense. Japan has entered previous tournaments as favorites, but due to Otani’s absence and stronger-than-usual MLB participation, Japan are probably underdogs this year. Things could start getting tough for them in the second round of pool play, when their rotation starts to get stretched and as they face more challenging teams. Still, even without Otani, there’s no doubting that Japan has an extremely talented (if flawed) roster.
Unfortunately, I don’t know about every player (owing to limited time and the Central League’s continued absence of a unified streaming package). Instead of writing about the entire roster I’ll write longer capsules about a few players. This article is mostly targeted at those not already familiar with Japanese baseball and Japanese baseball players.
Should Samurai Japan advance to the later rounds, there are some players who have a good chance to make an international impression, even though not many of the below players are famous outside of Japan.
The second base log-jam
NPB has two world-class second basemen playing in their ranks this year. Both are on Samurai Japan’s roster, and neither have played much out of position before. The presence of a DH spot may provide for some extra flexibility, but manager Hiroki Kokubo may have his hands full finding playing time for both.
Tetsuto Yamada
Until the second half of last season, Tetsuto Yamada looked unstoppable. In his breakout age-22 campaign in 2015, Yamada paired plus defense with a .329/.416/.610 batting line (193 wRC+). He hit 38 homers, stole 34 bases in 38 tries, and was worth 12.9 WAR per DeltaGraphs. NPB WAR should be looked at with even more caveats than its stateside counterpart, but… 12.9!
At the all-star break in 2016, Yamada was on pace to beat the insane standards he put forward the previous season. He had posted an OPS over 1.000 in each individual month. However, at the end of July, Yamada was hit in the back by a pitch and had to miss some time with a bone bruise in his ribs. In August he still managed a .271/.417/.500 line in 60 plate appearances, but that slowed to .176/.300/.412 in 80 plate appearances in September.
Even after the slump, Yamada’s full season batting line was .322/.425/.607, good for a 180 wRC+. He stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, and tallied 9 WAR per DeltaGraphs. The hit-by-pitch represents a clean explanation for why his production tailed off at the end of the season. Even so, for the first time in two years, Yamada will have something to prove.
Yamada’s home stadium, Meiji Jingu, has a fairly-earned reputation of being a bandbox, and his power is almost exclusively limited to the pull side. This may not necessarily play as well in the Tokyo Dome or at Dodger Stadium, should Samurai Japan advance to the finals. Still, even if some of those balls don’t make it over the wall, Yamada crushes bad pitches and is extremely fast, provided that his back is healed.
Yamada is Samurai Japan’s position player most likely to make an impact in MLB someday. If he continues to tear through NPB in 2017, he may be suiting up in the US sooner rather than later.
Ryosuke Kikuchi
Given the above praise for Yamada, it may be confusing as to why he is not a slam dunk to start at second base, instead of playing out of position and displacing one of Samurai Japan’s other capable infielders. That reason is Ryosuke Kikuchi, who has manned second for the Carp for the past five seasons. Simply put, Kikuchi is one of the best defensive second basemen in the world:
These videos would be more impressive if they showed the 3–4 best plays from each year instead of 20 each, but they show Kikuchi’s excellent range, quick hands, and good instincts. He has been inconsistent at the plate, but 2016 was the second-best hitting season of his career. Kikuchi had a better argument for the Central League’s MVP award than teammate and winner Takahiro Arai (though perhaps worse than Seiya Suzuki, profiled below). As long as he remains above-average with his bat, the glove will propel him to the upper levels of performance in Japan.
Thunder in the outfield
Japan’s offense is not typically known for its power. However, this outfield is stacked, even beyond the inclusion of Samurai Japan’s only MLB player, Nori Aoki.
Seiya Suzuki
Suzuki, Kikuchi’s teammate, had an incredible breakout last year. In his age-21 season, he hit .335/.404/.612 (186 wRC+) while playing a capable center field. His power particularly shined, as he hit 29 dingers in a homer-neutral park.
Suzuki has a great arm, though he may have to convert to right field at some point. That’s a few years down the road, though, and Suzuki will likely be Samurai Japan’s starter in center.
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo
Tsutsugo has long been considered one of the best power-hitting prospects in Japan, but before 2016 he hadn’t put it all together, topping out at 24 dingers the year before. In the first half of last season, it looked as if that trend was going to continue.
However, after the all-star break, Tsutsugo went berserk. In the first four games after the break, Tsutsugo hit six dingers. In the first eleven games after the break, he hit 10 dingers. In the first 16 games after the break, he hit 12. In the month of July, Tsutsugo hit .429/.529/1.095 (1.625 OPS!) with 16 homers. That insane streak propelled him to an overall season batting line of .322/.430/.680. His 198 wRC+ led qualified batters in NPB, as did his 44 bombs, all of which are shown in this video:
Some of those homers were cheap (like Yamada, Tsutsugo plays in a small park), but many of them were not, and many were to the opposite field. Tsutsugo is Japan’s most dangerous power threat. He will either play left field or DH for Samurai Japan.
Other position players of note
Hayato Sakamoto: Sakamoto put up an MVP-caliber season at shortstop for the Giants after finding his power stroke. I haven’t watched him much, since I do not care for the team he’s on. Fans may enjoy knowing that he walks up to the song Let It Go from Frozen. He turned down an international free agent option this offseason so he could continue starring at short in Tokyo.
Nobuhiro Matsuda/Sho Nakata: More infield power threats. Both of these players are capable of hitting mistakes a long way. Both also suffer from occasional approach issues. One or both may be displaced to the bench by the crowded roster.
Nori Aoki: Aoki will likely start in right field for Samurai Japan. He is the team’s only MLB player.
Shogo Akiyama: Akiyama is only one year removed from breaking NPB’s single-season hits record, and put forward another good year for the Lions in 2016. Akiyama plays center, though figures to be displaced by Suzuki. If Tsutsugo ends up at DH, Akiyama may start, though at this point it’s not clear how the team will fit so many good players into so few starting lineup spots. At the very least, Akiyama should see some time as a pinch hitter and as a defensive replacement.
Seiichi Uchikawa: Another capable offensive player and a veteran of 16 NPB seasons. He’s very good at putting the ball in play, and hit 18 dingers last season (partially thanks to the Hawks’ short porch). He may see playing time either at first base or in the corner outfield.
And to think, all of this outfield depth is without Yuki Yanagita, who perhaps has Japan’s best hitting approach. Yanagita is still recovering from a finger injury he suffered at the end of last season.
An Unstable Pitching Staff
Unlike Japan’s deep lineup, the pitching staff looks somewhat vulnerable. Shohei Otani’s absence looms large, as does the lack of Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, or Kenta Maeda, all of whom are recovering from injury or declined to play in the tournament. As a result, Samurai Japan’s pitching staff is in a state of mild disarray. There’s enough talent here to push them through, but enough instability to send them to an early exit.
Tomoyuki Sugano
Like Sakamoto, Sugano had an extremely good season which I wanted no part of watching. Sugano was the Giants’ best pitcher last year, and had an argument for the Sawamura Award. I haven’t watched any of his starts, but here’s a highlight reel where he looks every bit as good as his numbers indicate:
YakyuDB put translated a profile of Sugano’s pitches in the offseason which is worth reading, particularly because it contains the following:
One-seam: 150-plus, late movement, stopped using it for a while, returned to the pitch this year
I don’t know what a one-seam fastball is, but now I’m way more interested in watching Sugano pitch.
The Fighters and Giants both selected Sugano in the first round of the 2011 draft, with the Fighters winning negotiation rights. Sugano elected to not sign and was re-drafted by the Giants in 2012 as the Fighters selected Otani. Practices like this are rare but not unheard of, and are yet another reason (of quite a few) that I do not care for the Giants.
(Incidentally, Sugano’s history made the Fighters’ selection of Otani in the 2012 draft all the more bold. A few days before the draft, Otani stated in no uncertain terms that he would not sign in NPB. The Fighters selected him anyways, and the rest is history. Losing two first-round picks in a row would have been disastrous, especially in a league with much lower free agent mobility.)
The Japan Times’ Jason Coskrey profiled Sugano this week. In that article, he also speaks of adjusting to the WBC’s ball, which is slicker than NPB’s variant. Sugano is considered the ace of this staff by default in Otani’s absence.
Sugano’s health is slightly in question because he missed the playoffs (and Samurai Japan’s friendly matches in November) with an injury which was never disclosed by his team. Apparently he is ready to go, but since the injury was never specified it’s fair to wonder if it will have an impact on his performance.
Takahiro Norimoto
Fans of international play may recognize Norimoto’s name. He started when Samurai Japan no-hit a team of MLB players in 2014’s All-Star Series. Norimoto pitched five perfect innings before being removed due to pitch count limits. Here are some highlights from that appearance:
I’ve watched Norimoto a lot, because he’s the ace of the team I cheer for most, the Eagles. He’s quietly put up two very good seasons since that video was recorded. Here are all of his strikeouts in 2015:
Norimoto has led the Pacific League (AKA the league with Otani in it) in strikeouts for three consecutive seasons. He’s fanned over 200 batters all three times. Between NPB’s shorter seasons, longer rotations, and higher contact rates, 200 strikeouts is a bigger milestone than it is in the US. Neither Darvish nor Tanaka struck out over 200 batters in three consecutive NPB seasons. Norimoto also has very good control, boasting a walk rate below 6.1% in all three of those years. He has also proven to be very durable, though the Eagles haven’t made a deep playoff run since his rookie season.
This all sounds fantastic, but so far the results haven’t followed that potential. Norimoto’s ERAs are typically in the high 2s; pretty good for a neutral park in the DH league, but nowhere near where somebody with his peripherals should be.
There are a few reasons for these nagging problems. Norimoto’s fastball is his worst pitch, so he can have problems early in the count. It’s typically in the 91–95 range, which is above-average in NPB, but it can be flat and hittable. Norimoto will also struggle with command. At their best, his slider and splitter can be devastating, but he doesn’t spot them quite as well as he should. He’ll get knocked around when they aren’t working.
Put that together and you get somebody who could be the consensus second-best pitcher in Japan, but hasn’t reached that point yet. Still, Norimoto is capable of putting together simply dominating starts, just like he did against MLB hitters two years ago. Japan will need him to be on point if they want to survive into the later rounds.
Kodai Senga
I really like Kodai Senga, but as of now it appears that he will be in the bullpen for the tournament. Senga has always put up good strikeout numbers, but until this year has had limited playing time due to a series of shoulder injuries and the Hawks’ depth.
I first noticed Senga earlier this year when he pitched against the Fighters and struck out 13 batters, including Otani twice (click for video):
In the Climax Series opener, Senga put together an even more impressive outing, striking out 12 Marines in seven innings behind an excellent forkball:
Senga will occasionally struggle with command, but for a 23-year-old pitching in his first full season, he did admirably well. He could be a fast riser in the NPB ranks if he can stay healthy.
Kazuto Yamazaki also wrote about Senga for The Dynasty Guru here. He shows video from Senga’s outing in last November’s pre-WBC friendlies, in which he struggled quite badly. The ball may be an issue (as Yamazaki noted), and it’s also possible that fatigue was playing a role. As a result, Senga is a question-mark for Samurai Japan, and may end up in middle relief to start the series.
Shintaro Fujinami
Fujinami was a late addition to Samurai Japan’s roster and is one of the most intriguing players to make the team. To understand why, a history lesson is in order.
Before the 2012 draft, Fujinami was viewed as nearly as good of a prospect as Otani. The two even faced off in that year’s Spring Koshien. Otani pitched, hit cleanup, and took Fujinami deep. However, in the end, Fujinami prevailed. Four teams had to compete for the rights to sign Fujinami in the draft, with the Tigers winning the selection.
Watching Fujinami has been frustrating so far in his young career, because his talent is incredibly obvious:
However, his control still hasn’t fully developed and he lost some velocity at the beginning of last season.
Fujinami turns 23 in April, so there’s still time for him to harness his ability. Additionally, it has been reported that Fujinami worked on strength training with Yu Darvish this offseason. This WBC could be the proving ground for that training. He’s an interesting option if Samurai Japan needs a fourth starter in pool play, but more than likely he will be appearing out of the bullpen.
Yuki Matsui
Matsui is far from the best pitcher on this roster, but he may be the most fun. He was selected by the Eagles in the first round of the 2013 draft. Five teams tried for Matsui, with the Eagles eventually winning the lucky draw. Competition was fierce because Matsui was a high school superstar, rising to prominence after he struck out 22 batters in a tournament game:
However, Matsui struggled heavily with his control and mechanics in his first audition with the Eagles. Matsui is just 5'8" (and a half) and 163 lbs, and a starter’s workload did not appear to work with his build. At the start of 2015, he was converted to a reliever full-time.
As a 19-year-old in NPB’s top level, Matsui’s relief debut was unbelievably successful. In 72–1/3 innings, Matsui struck out 103 batters and walked 28. That’s a strikeout rate of 36.2% in a contact-oriented league. The walk rate was a bit high, but the K%-BB% was still over 26%. He paired those incredible peripherals with an ERA of 0.87. At his best, he was simply untouchable.
Unfortunately, Matsui reverted to his formerly-wild ways in 2016. His walk rate spiked to almost 15% (5.8 BB/9). He still missed a lot of bats, but his ERA stepped back to 3.37 (particularly ruined by a 6R, 0.1IP implosion against the Marines in May — one fewer run than he allowed in all of 2015). Matsui managed to remain in the closer’s role despite his struggles, but many of his saves caused Eagles fans more heartburn than they would care for.
Matsui turned 21 shortly after the end of last season, so he’s still young and has an incredible amount of potential. When he’s pitching well, he just puts a smile on your face. He’s a 5'8" reliever who tops out at 90, generating whiff after whiff on fastballs and sliders and being expressive on the mound while doing so. It’s a joy.
Here are some video examples of how fun Matsui can be, including every strikeout he recorded in his 2015 campaign:
And some highlights from 2016:
Based on his numbers from last year, it stands to reason that Matsui shouldn’t be the closer for Samurai Japan. Yet, based on how much fun it is to watch him pitch, I hope he is. If he’s pitching well, this is a chance for the world to experience the fun I’ve had watching him close games for my team.
Starting Pitchers I Don’t Know Enough About:
Ayumu Ishikawa: A pitch-to-contact right-handed pitcher with excellent control. He doesn’t blow anybody away but has a fun overhand curve. He’s likely to be in the back half of Japan’s rotation. Highlight video:
Shota Takeda: In the last two years, Takeda has become a stalwart in the Hawks’ otherwise oft-cycling rotation. He was added to the roster when Otani was removed, and may get a start in pool play. Here are a bunch of his curveballs:
Should the rotation be Sugano, Norimoto, Ishikawa, and Takeda, as is currently rumored, Samurai Japan would not have a left-handed starting pitcher.
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3000 words later, and there’s a preview of some of the players I’m excited to see. Japan is not in the same position they’ve been in during previous WBC tournaments, particularly with their pitching staff, but they still have some great players. However, to repeat their victories in 2006 and 2009, they’ll need some of their talented-but-flawed players to step up.
