Boris will be Back

Before the 2015 general election David Cameron made headlines when he stated that he would not be pursuing a third term as Prime Minister. It was during this time that one of the papers (I forget which one) made the very valid point that David Cameron would have to step down as PM before 2020 to allow the next Prime Minister to introduce themselves to the electorate. It was this claim that made me believe David Cameron orchestrated the EU referendum knowing that he would lose and would have to ‘resign’. I (wrongly) believed that following the outcome of the referendum it would be Boris Johnson who became Prime Minster. His time as Mayor of London and his ‘loveable buffoon’ persona made him a reasonably popular politician. Even people who would never vote Tory admitted that Boris was interesting. I thought David Cameron would step aside and Boris would take up the mantle unopposed.

I was wrong

Tomorrow Theresa May will become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, however that doesn’t mean that my theory is dead in the water. Consider this.

Theresa May is now responsible for dealing with Brexit. Article 50 gives two years to negotiate the exit of a member state meaning that if May imitates it soon after her ascension to ‘the highest office’ the UK will be out of Europe some time in late 2018 (or early 2019). Depending on the terms the government manages to agree this could lead to Theresa May’s political suicide or a huge rise in support for the Conservatives. Regardless of the outcome of EU negotiations Theresa May will have to resign.

If she can negotiate everything that vote leave promised (a trade deal with the EU and the world without open borders) then the Conservatives can campaign for re-election in 2020 as the party that both brought about the referendum and the party that negotiated the deal. May will step down as leader and ‘a new face for a new generation/UK’ will appear. Or perhaps Boris is waiting in the wings to be this person.

However, if she cannot get a good deal for the UK and if Brussels are harsh then she will have to resign for ‘failing the UK’ and the Conservatives will seek out a fresh face to distance the party from the disaster. I believe Theresa May will make drastic changes to the cabinet introducing new politicians in preparation for whoever comes next (I bet Boris).