Beyond Correlations, a Causal Theory for Studying War

As a tenured professor with The College of William and Mary in Virginia, David Dessler, PhD, worked within the Department of Government. Published in his field, Dr. David Dessler authored the extensively cited “Beyond Correlations: Toward a Causal Theory of War” (International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 35, №3, September 1991).

In the paper, he sought to expand the academic paradigm at a time when the scientific study of war relied largely on correlational studies. These seek to unearth patterns tying together events, conditions, and actions when it comes to interstate conflict. Unfortunately, such studies are subject to significant subjective biases, and it is these that the author addresses in framing an “explanatory theory of war” with reproducible evidence as its basis.

The foundational problem of nonintegration within the study of war is that it has its roots in an overly restrictive epistemology — or theory of what separates “justified belief from opinion.” Drawing on integrative causal reasoning practices common in the natural sciences, the paper recommends that researchers into war develop a similar causal theory that helps overcome a situation of “empirical fragmentation.”