The Stretch Four: Is Supply a Problem?
The arrival of analytics in basketball has created a specific commodity. Has college basketball kept up with the demand?
Rejoice: The Kris Humphries experiment is finally over. Through all the cheers of Washington Wizards fans, there’s one that’s been resounding above others. As a guest on ESPN 980 a few days ago, Randy Wittman went on a short rant about analytics in basketball:
“Listen, it’s everywhere. I mean, I can’t go down to the local grocery store without somebody in the aisle saying something about analytics. I mean, it’s everywhere. And it is what it is. Listen, as a coach I take the things that are important to me and use those. I’ve got to coach the team. Analytics haven’t won a ballgame. You’ve got to take what you have and put guys in position that they can best succeed at. And there are some things with numbers that help that, but if you see some of the number sheets that we have, it would drive you crazy. But you know what, that’s the world we live in.
You can almost assume the botched effort of turning a bruising, rebounding power forward into a stretch four had something to do with Wittman lashing out at analytics.
The analytics guys would say it was worth the try. This year, players 6’8 and above shoot at a meager 39.4% clip from 10–19 feet out, the classic mid-range of an old school power forward. Taking the same shots from behind the arch, they’d only need to shoot at a 26.3% clip to achieve the same efficiency. It’s why the Cavs are okay with Kevin Love being a 16/10 player over the 26/13 he was in Minnesota. It’s why Ryan Anderson is going to be offered a max contract this offseason. And it’s why Wittman reluctantly gave Kris Humphries the green light to shoot as many threes as possible.
The evolution of the power forward into the stretch four has given us some awkward moments. As I was watched the NFL combine, I noticed stark similarities with what’s going on with the tight end position. As the position has evolved, guys such as Gronk and Kelce have become increasingly valuable commodities. With the lack of depth in this year’s draft, it only highlights the lack of supply. At 6'6 with soft hands, a 4.5 40-yd dash, and a 25 rep bench press, there’s not many prototypical tight ends roaming this planet.
With all the changes the power forward position is going through recently, I wondered if the NBA is going through the same sort of issues with supply at the college level.
After some research, I found some interesting details. You can read more at The Full Court Press.
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