Jumpshot data predicts disappointing Q2 revenue from Expedia despite growth in tourism

Just like your vacation savings, Expedia’s revenue this quarter will be pretty disappointing.

On April 28, Expedia released its quarterly earnings report for Q1 and exceeded analyst expectations, causing the stock to rise 8%. While the average analyst prediction was $1.8 billion in revenue, Expedia topped out at $1.9 billion, which represented a 38.7% YOY growth. Jumpshot, using our clickstream data from our 100-million user panel, predicted $1.8 billion in revenue, which is in-line with the average analyst prediction.

But, saying we were a near-hit about what happened after results were already published is easy, so we decided to up the ante and predict Expedia earnings before results are released.

Expedia will release its earnings on July 28. Based on the clickstream data from our user panel, we predict that Expedia will report total booked transactional revenue of $1.9 billion, representing a 26% increase from 2015 Q2. Analyst average prediction for Q2 is $2.25 billion, 35% YoY growth from 2015.

Based on our data, we predict that Expedia is going to miss analyst predictions for this quarter.

How did we do it?

Jumpshot looked at those in our panel who booked flight, hotel, and car reservations in the United States and 27 countries across the globe. This analysis was then correlated to Expedia’s earnings releases since Q1 2014. Applying a regression model, Jumpshot was able to closely predict future earnings just by a single metric. Honestly, what better way to anticipate performance by a company selling travel online than to look at the number of bookings trended over time.

Jumpshot historical transaction data correlated very closely with Expedia’s publicly reported bookings.

We ran this same analysis for 27 International markets, including Germany, France and Japan. Comparing past earnings reports with transaction data from the panel, Jumpshot’s data scientists created a regression model going back to Q1 2014.

We are firm believers in the power of data-driven intelligence to predict sales for any e-commerce company.

For more information about Jumpshot, how we were able to pull this off, or what else we can do, please contact us.

About Jumpshot

Jumpshot is a marketing analytics company that helps marketers understand their customer’s entire online lives. From the key sources of traffic to a site, to the browsing, consuming, and buying behavior on a site, to where customers go once they’ve left a site, our platform reveal the entire customer journey. Jumpshot tracks more than 160 billion monthly clicks from our 100-million customer panel’s clickstream activity. In short, we are able to see every single click that our user panel performs in the order that they do them from January 2014 through yesterday.

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