Don’t yell at me but too many Labour supporters are being too optimistic about a General Election!

Don’t all yell at me at once but I see too many Labour supporters being optimistic about how we’ll do in the upcoming General Election (GE). I think we have real issues to worry about. Before you yell disagreement, at least read this post to see why I say that.

The optimism for Labour is mostly based on:

1. What happened in 2017: the polls were wrong, Labour added on c.20% to what the polls were saying, we’ll do it again.
2. Once we get the fair airtime a General Election requires, people will see our policies and Jeremy properly.
3. It’s the policies that will do it. People will see beyond Brexit at the sort of country we want going forward and will pick Labour.

Here’s why I think these 3 points don’t apply as much they seem:

1) It’s not 2017 May calling that GE was a total surprise

The polls in the run up to her announcement were all on the assumption of no GE. Today, unless you’ve been in a cave, most people know a GE is very likely. People would have responded to polls with their GE heads on. So, I think it’s wrong to assume that not just a bounce in the polls but a big bounce up for Labour will happen as the GE campaign gets underway.

2) Fair airtime won’t make a big difference

The broadcast media have been heavily skewed to covering the Tories. Once a GE is declared they will have to give fair time. Yes, that will make a difference when people can see Jeremy and Labour’s polices explained but won’t be enough by itself.

3) It will be difficult for the policies to cut through Brexit

Unlike in 2017, the big planks of Labour’s plan are already out in the 2017 Manifesto and the many new policy announcements since. Yes, fair airtime will give more exposure to these. But even if Labour come out with a range of big new amazing policies they will be fighting against Brexit. Whether it has or hasn’t happened by the time of the GE it will cast a big shadow over the GE. If there is a delay in place, that shadow will be massive. It will affect how people vote.

To be clear this isn’t a counsel of despair, it’s one of caution. Labour can win the next election, it’s policies are what the country needs. But we won’t win by assuming it’s in the bag or what worked in 2017 will work again or that we can ignore Brexit. So what do we do?

There are 2 reactions to what I’ve said:

1) I’m wrong, it’ll be fine, we’ll win

or

2) I have some kind of a point, so what is it we need to better or new this time to last time? I’m more interested in people’s constructive thoughts on (2) but will look at other comments too.