Where next? The route from May’s Finance Bill defeat to a General Election

The No Deal defeat for the Government doesn’t stop a No Deal happening. Legally, a No Deal will happen automatically if a deal isn’t agreed by the Brexit date. But, this defeat does show how we can get out of the mess May has got us stuck in.

The defeat CONFIRMS there is a majority against No Deal in the Commons. So what if a No Deal happens anyway if May’s deal is defeated? The confirmation of a No Deal Majority shows the way out, the steps would be:

1. May’s deal is defeated (as seems certain)
2. May’s doesn’t quit as PM and carries on bringing back her botched deal for more defeats.
3. A No Deal looks certain.
4. Labour call a vote of No Confidence.

This will be the moment of truth for the Tory MPs who aren’t No Deal Hard Brexiters, party or country? Vote with Labour, if Labour win the vote, at a minimum May must go taking her red lines with her. Or, vote with May and take the country to a suicide No Deal Brexit.

5. a) Labour win the vote, May quits and a new Tory leader is immediately appointed who can command a Commons majority. They can renegotiate with the EU as this is a significant change and their mandate is no to a No Deal.

OR

5. b) Labour win the vote, May or a new Tory leader isn’t able to build a majority within 14 days so a General Election has to take place if Labour can’t form a majority (Labour would need Tory MPs for majority, that seems unlikley). The most likely election outcome is a Labour win with a mandate for their deal, ie a customs union with the EU.

6. a) Labour renegotiates with the EU and gets a new deal that is backed by the Commons. Done.

OR

6. b) Labour fails to renegotiate a new deal OR the deal it negotiates is rejected by the Commons. Labour would then call for a 2nd Referendum as a deal of any sort doesn’t look possible.

So, bottom line, assuming as is likely May’s deal fails in the Commons:

— MPs who don’t want a No Deal should be ready to back a Labour vote of No Confidence.

— So should MPs who want a Second Referendum

— So should MPs who want a practical Brexit