Nice article; curious to know your thoughts once most/all cars are self-driving, how many less cars…
John Mabe
1

Thanks for reading the article, John! This is a great question. I think your conclusion is spot on. I don’t have car reduction number in mind, but here’s how I think about it. Once the network is fully-optimized, I think there will be a dramatic reduction of cars on the road for a few reasons: 1) logistics networks will make rides more efficient by optimizing routes, ride times and even specific roads for certain types of autonomous transport. 2) auto makers will be incentivized to be design AVs for max # of riders who could fit comfortably into a vehicle. This number # of riders will be greater than the # today. 3) Less personal car ownership due to fully-optimized AV network. I can imagine a buy back program where folks to sell their car to corporations to retrofit for autonomous transport. Many of the cars in the buy back program won’t meet retrofit requirements (think of how many poor-condition cars are on the road today) and will be scrapped, removing millions of cars from the road. These cars will be scrapped because the AV network gets better the more networked cars are on the road (this akin to a network effect)