I agree with your sentiment that trying to reverse-engineer historical trends and apply them blindly to “explain” current events without any respect for economics, human psychology and political theory, leads to a narrative that sounds interesting but has no ultimate meaning or predictive power. I actually think that these days, any high-school student could create a pseudo-historical narrative mentioning Brexit, Trump and a nuclear scenario, so it’s not even a question of “Trust me, I’m a Historian”. Nonetheless, this is not what will lead Trump to power, and this is not what caused Brexit.