The Tesla Model 3 Theory
Tesla’s autonomous ride sharing is coming sooner than we think
Here is going to be the story over Tesla’s plan to entering the autonomous ride sharing and a break down on how the new Model 3 is optimized to take over any day now.
In the second installment of his Master Plan, Musk outlined the future Tesla Ride Sharing Network as follows:
“When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.
You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you’re at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost.”
The Model 3, as it turns out, is Tesla’s Highlander.
It’s the only car in Tesla’s current lineup capable of someday joining its ride sharing network. The S and X, despite appearing to share the same autopilot hardware, will not make it in current form, nor do they even make sense as robotaxis, given this imminent and cheaper alternative.
Let’s note the important distinction that everyone seems to be missing:
Full self driving does not necessarily equate to ride sharing
- Tesla is not saying that the S/X hardware can’t achieve full self-driving.
- And yet they’re not explaining the Model 3’s distinctive features because they’re already drowning in reservations and would rather you buy an S or an X.
But they left too many clues
The Model 3 brings forward two very important innovations, one interior, one exterior. And, HW 2.5 is what’s needed to tie them together.
From this, we can surmise that the Model 3 interior serves three purposes simultaneously.
- It’s strikingly unique and unapologetically futuristic
- It’s easier to manufacture (fewer parts)
- It’s built for autonomous ride sharing
Yes, that last one. The Model 3 is built from the ground up to be the first candidate in Tesla’s future ride sharing network and the interior is the first piece of the puzzle.
The unique 15-inch screen is a hugely important feature.
exept for the window actuators (which are required)
there are no other physical controls.
No radio.
No trunk latch.
No glove box handle.
No fiddly heating/air-conditioning vents.
Software Controls Go to the Next Level and Beyond
Not having physical controls means everything in the Model 3 is software controlled. This means everything is configurable and remembered. Everything. And more importantly, it’s remembered per person.
This also makes the main display the access point in order to do things like open the trunk or the glove box, or, in general, to operate anything.
Access to configurable touch screen controls can be either prevented or granted.
What are the first two concerns people mention when asked if they’d hypothetically share their car with others in a ride-sharing network?
- What if I leave something valuable in the car?
- What if someone pukes/destroys my interior?
As just illustrated, Tesla addressed the first issue through 100% software controls. Permissions for anything can be granted to the owner, but restricted from other parties.
- The glove box now acts as a safe that you don’t need to remember to lock.
- The front and rear trunks are inaccessible without permission.
- Nothing proprietary or personal can be accessed from the main display
This has never been done before in the history of automotive. And we’re only one third of the way through the mystery.
Monitoring the Interior
At CES 2017 nVidia announced, among other things, AI Co-Pilot. They listed its features as facial recognition, head position and gaze tracking, natural language processing, voice speech capabilities, augmented lip reading, external environmental awareness.
it features a camera to keep an eye on the driver and interior cabin. This would address the second piece of the ride-sharing interior puzzle: what if someone damages the interior?
And in studying over the Model 3, above the rear view mirror there is this.
An internal camera.
So, Tesla is not only using nVidia’s Drive PX2 board for autopilot, but they now appear to be using something very similar to its Co-Pilot technology to monitor the interior.
Let’s restate that for clarity — the Model 3 has a camera that can monitor the interior cabin in the event a third party damages something.
Also note that such a camera, not present on the S/X, would require computing power and new wiring to the Drive PX2/Co-Pilot board. Let’s recall Tesla’s statement to Electrek:
“This hardware set has some added computing and wiring redundancy, which very slightly improves reliability, but it does not have an additional Pascal GPU.”
Tesla needed new hardware address two of the biggest concerns in sharing one’s vehicle with a third party: restricting access to valuables and features, and monitoring the interior.
The Final Piece of the Ride-Sharing Puzzle
First we inserted keys.
Then we inserted key fobs.
Now we have wireless key fobs that we keep in our pockets and can start the car with the push of a button.
Yet, none of these interactions are sufficient for a future ride sharing environment.
You can’t lend your key fob to everyone who would ride in your car. But, that’s OK. It’s about to become obsolete.
The Backup Entry Option
As Model 3 videos began to surface it was quickly discovered that Tesla is replacing the key fob with an NFC key card. Entry via key card involves swiping it against the B-pillar, and then placing it in the cup holder.
While interesting, and simultaneously futuristic and (seemingly) a step backward, this is a red herring.
The key card is the secondary form of entry, and it’s purpose is to obsolete the key fob, not replace it. There’s something much more important in play.
The REAL Entry Option
The main form of entry to the Model 3 is actually your cell phone.
With the Tesla app and an Internet connection, one can press a button and lock/unlock the doors from anywhere in the world. Both the S and X also work this way.
Enter The Magic Protocol
As we know, everything’s better with Bluetooth. And so is ride-sharing.
Starting with the Model 3, Tesla’s mobile app will also run a persistent background service that uses Bluetooth LE to directly connect to the vehicle.
Bluetooth LE is an advertising/scanning-based approach that one can use to securely transmit encrypted public/private keys and data. It does not require explicit pairing like traditional Bluetooth.
In other words, with your phone in your pocket, the car will not only unlock as you approach but also know who you are and instantly configure itself with your preferences, privileges, and restrictions.
Whats the Conclusion:
Despite misguided criticism, Tesla has not obsoleted Autopilot 2.0 hardware and this isn’t a “backup plan.” AP HW 2.5 is not about self-driving; it’s about ride-sharing. And Tesla doesn’t want to explain it — yet.
In short, with the Model 3, Tesla is delivering a mind-blowing electric vehicle that:
- Incorporates everything Tesla believes is necessary for full autonomy
- Incorporates everything needed to join its future ride sharing network
- Will recognize you as you approach
- Unlock your door and adjust your seat position
- Restrict any parts of the car you’re not approved to access
- Set the car to your temperature and aim the air vents where you prefer
- Set all your radio presets
- Queue your favorite streaming music or podcasts
- (Someday) play your favorite movies and television shows
And all this happens instantly as you approach, without any manual interaction.
Expect more discussion on this from tech and auto industry reporters, and eventually the general public.
This is what Apple, GM, and others aspire to deliver three or more years from now.
Tesla isn’t going to explain it because, for now, they’d rather you buy an S or an X.
Despite keeping this secret they still have over 455,000 reservations. And counting.
The bottom line is that contrary to what Tesla says, the Model 3 is the most technologically advanced car that Tesla or anyone else has ever built.
And it’s not even close.
Tesla is innovating at a rate unmatched in the auto industry. Not only are they planning years ahead but they’re also executing in a way that none of their peers can even conceive.
