DIWALI 2018 — Chart Study From Longer Term Perspective.
As published in Vyaapaar Samachar and vyaapaarsamachar.com in Gujarati
Namaste…Hello….and Welcome to D-Street Winners Blog!
If you are from the Stock Market Community, you ought to be talking stocks, while the rest of the universe talks shopping/family/festivities/celebrations. While on rest of the days you work in western formals, during Diwali you are permitted to doll-up in ethnic Indian wear, and work in D-street….So that’s the difference you see :-) Without this, you are not really considered happening ….Whoopssss ;-) :-)
So sticking to the norms of looking for stock ideas on Diwali, let me complete the formality from my side. Why do I say formality? Because I do not necessarily believe in this concept. Why don’t I believe in this? Well there’s a reason. If you read about “Time Cycle Study”, you will learn about the concept of “Synchronicity”. It says that, two cycles are said to be synchronous if they bottom out together. Now reading time lines on Nifty, one sees that markets do not necessarily bottom out on every October or November….unless if we see something like Demonetization just during that time, and if that creates a near term bottom in that time frame. So Diwali time isn’t always in sync with creation of bottoms. And long term bets must be taken when longer term patterns are formed. When longer term support levels are seen being formed. And not when it is Diwali or because everybody does it. You don’t trade long because it is Monday. You don’t trade short, because it is Friday. You don’t invest just because it is Diwali. Simple!
Anyways, let’s see how things look like, if one wants to take the bets as of now. I am not here to give buy calls or even buy/sell levels. I am only here to share how I read charts on higher time frames as of now.
In my previous article dated 21st Oct, I had mentioned that markets will attempt to respect levels of 10000, provided flow of bad news get ebbed. I had mentioned that the fall is driven by bad macros and those need to turn, for recovery. Else, if we break 10000, then we are headed much lower. This curb on bad news was seen, as crude stopped rising and rupee stopped falling. Markets respected 10000 and we saw a solid rise. I had mentioned that any pullback should be treated as pullback only and not mistaken as a bottom meant to last forever. Now….15 days later, we stand at 10530, and the above logic stands valid. We should be fine in the year ahead, if 10000 holds. We may consolidate around it, and that should be healthy. Best of rallies occur from strongly built base. So be it
The stock charts that look good to me as of now, for coming times are mentioned below. These should in no way be treated as Investment recommendations. One must know and control one’s risk appetite and consult personal financial consultant, before any commitments. These stocks may continue to look good, till the broad fabric doesn’t deteriorate. In case of 10000 gets taken down decisively, or if the Political Scene takes stability for a toss, or if crude crosses 100, nothing may remain valid in medium term horizon of an year or less. Extreme long term, is another matter.
Wishing you all a Happy Diwali and a Profitable Samvat 2075 — From www.dstreetwinners.com. (Twitter @ Dstreetwinners)
The names on my study that look good currently are as mentioned below:
Prices here are as of 6th Nov 2018 EOD
AUROPHARMA @ 785
HAVELLS @ 645
HINDUNILVR @ 1630
SUNPHARMA @ 580
RELIANCE @ 1100
JETAIRWAYS @ 255
BAJFINANCE @ 2340
ICICIBANK @ 353