Donald Trump is Dead — Why the Front-Runner Has No Chance of Winning the Republican Nomination

Everyone is over-thinking this Donald Trump thing. Folks are acting like he won. This ain’t over. You’ve just got to stop thinking all smart-like with your complicated projections and studies of demographics and whatnot. Think like the Republican Party — you know the group that allowed this madness to fester in the first place. Trump isn’t going to win anything.

Let’s just look at what we know already and project out the remainder of the primaries with a few assumptions and let’s prioritize them based on sample size and importance. These things may not come to pass, but I’d be stunned if I wasn’t 100% accurate on this.

Assumption #1 — Proportional Delegates Are Won at the Current Rate

Currently, Trump has won 42.6% of awarded delegates from proportional states (read: states that assign delegates based on percentage of votes cast in some weird way or another). Ted Cruz has won 35.8%, Marco Rubio has won 16.8%, John Kasich (it just took me 90 seconds to remember his first name, maybe because President Kasich flows off the tongue so naturally) has won 4.0% and Dr. Ben Carson has won 1.3%. If those numbers seem low, it’s because they are. The Fantastic Four (Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul) previously collected 1.11% of the thus-far awarded delegates. (As an aside, if you think things are still too diluted now, understand that those four people combined to win fewer delegates than Carson.)

Here’s that scoreboard currently based on proportional state delegates:

With 697 delegates remaining from proportional states, we should see something like this based on the established pace above.

· Trump: +291 (557 Total)

· Cruz: +247(473 Total)

· Rubio: +116 (222 Total)

· Kasich: +27 (52 Total)

· Carson: +9 (17 Total)

· Bush: +4 (8 Total)

· Fiorina: +1 (2 Total)

· Huckabee: +1 (2 Total)

· Paul: +1 (2 Total)

Now, it might sound absurd that folks might continue to vote for those in the bottom tier, but they are still on the ballot and some people voted early. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from Trump it’s that a not-so-small portion of the population is going to vote with their gut. Their gut might say vote for the guy who is worth billions. Or their gut might not know that Rand Paul is no longer campaigning. You can’t judge a gut by its cover.

Assumption #2 — Winner-Take-All Home States Are Won by the Homies

Marco Rubio (Florida) and John Kasich (Ohio) have opportunities to win every delegate from their home states. That may sound like a reach, but remember:

1. The winner in Florida and Ohio gets 100% of the assigned delegates.

2. Ted Cruz won in Texas. So thus far, 100% of viable home-state candidates have won their state.

Given that, Rubio and Kasich not winning their home states would be a monumental upset. I don’t care that polls show Rubio trailing Trump in the Sunshine State and Kasich even with Trump in the Whatever-Ohio’s-Nickname-Is State. I’m relying on what we’ve seen in this election and I’m thinking like the type of simpleton that allows practically anyone to run for president as a Republican. Don’t ruin this.

So, Rubio should pick up 99 delegates and Kasich could pick up 66 making the total (including the projections from the first assumption) to:

· Trump: 557 Total

· Cruz: 473 Total

· Rubio: 321 Total

· Kasich: 118 Total

· Carson: 17 Total

· Bush: 8 Total

· Fiorina: 2 Total

· Huckabee: 2 Total

· Paul: 2 Total

Assumption #3 — The Rest of the Winner-Take All States Play Out Per Current Winning Percentages

So far, Trump has won 10 states (New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia). Cruz has won four states (Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska). Rubio has won one state (Minnesota).

So, Trump has won 66.7% of states, Cruz has won 26.7% of states and Rubio has won 6.7% of states.

With Florida and Ohio already accounted for, the following 15 territories are up for grabs as “winner-take all”: Arizona, Delaware, Nebraska, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota, Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, California, Virgin Islands and Northern Marianas (whatever the hell that is).

Presumably, history will repeat itself (because that’s what it does, y’all) and Trump will win 10 of these states, Cruz will win four and Rubio will win one.

And, if history is any indicator (and it is, y’all), Cruz will win the bigger states (as measured by average delegates), Rubio will win the small ones and Trump will take a bit out of the middle?

Why will Cruz win the big states? Well, he’s won the biggest state to-date — Texas. The Lonestar State awards 155 delegates. The biggest state Trump has won (sadly) is Georgia with 76 delegates. Further, Cruz’s “won” states hand out an average 64 delegates. Trump’s “won” states hand out an average of 43.4. Rubio’s only win hands out 38.

Interestingly enough, we can completely fabricate the outcome of these states and hit the key numbers — both number of states won and average delegates per state — pretty accurately as follows. We can also project Trump’s victory speeches in each state.

Trump is going to win the following 10 states and collect a total of 445 delegates (44.5 per state):

· California (171) — “I do very well in Hollywood. I’m a star. Humble, but still a star.”

· Missouri (52) — “I do very well with fake SEC states.”

· New Jersey (51) — “I own Chris Christie’s soul. I also owned the New Jersey Generals.”

· Wisconsin (42) — “Cheese loves me. I’m yuuuuuge with cheese.”

· Maryland (38) — “I do very well with crabcakes and football. I always have.”

· South Dakota (29) — “I love Fargo. Fargo is in South Dakota, trust me. Though that is negotiable.”

· Montana (27) — “I do very well with state parks. I’ve always been very pro-tree.”

· Delaware (16) — “I do absolutely terrific with Delaware Holding Companies. I do the best deals with those.”

· Northern Marianas (9) — “Even though I’m married to the most electric woman in the world, I might sleep with one of the Marianas. I bet I could. I bet I could.”

· Virgin Island (9) — “I can’t believe this old woman just said that. I’m not going to repeat that. I couldn’t possibly say that. No way I’m going to say…She said the Islands won’t be Virgins when I’m done with them. I can’t believe she said that. I would never say that. It might be true, but I wouldn’t say it.”

Cruz, meanwhile, will win Pennsylvania (71), Illinois (69), Arizona (58) and Indiana (57) basically because the numbers work out. That’s a total of 225 delegates and 63.75 per state — in line with what he’s been doing.

Rubio will win Nebraska’s 36 delegates.

So where’s that get us? The delegate total through three reasonable assumptions:

· Trump: 1,052 Total (includes 50 delegates won in South Carolina added in)

· Cruz: 698 Total

· Rubio: 357 Total

· Kasich: 118 Total

· Carson: 17 Total

· Bush: 8 Total

· Fiorina: 2 Total

· Huckabee: 2 Total

· Paul: 2 Total

Assumption #4 — The Weird States/Territories Don’t Get Too Weird

Colorado (37 delegates), Wyoming (29 delegates), Guam (9 delegates), American Samoa (9 delegates) and North Dakota (28 delegates) have “unbound” delegate allocations. That’s kind of what it sounds like— these delegates are largely up in the air up until the time of the convention. So how do we project that? Hell if I know.

But thus far, this completely logical experiment has accounted for a total 2,256 delegates and Trump has picked up 46.6% of the assignments. Let’s give him a 10% “benefit of the doubt” bump and say he collects 51.2% of the delegates from these weird states. That means he gets 57 delegates.

Let’s discount everyone else slightly (Cruz from 31% to 28%; Rubio from 16% to 13% and so forth) to give Cruz 31 delegates, Rubio 15 delegates and Kasich 6 delegates. For good fun, let’s pretend the Good Doctor does really well in American Samoa and picks up the loose 3 delegates.

With those 112 weird, unbound delegates assigned (generously to Trump) we get to:

· Trump: 1,109 Total

· Cruz: 729 Total

· Rubio: 372 Total

· Kasich: 124 Total

· Carson: 20 Total

· Bush: 8 Total

· Fiorina: 2 Total

· Huckabee: 2 Total

· Paul: 2 Total

Then, let’s be generous once again and assume that Trump, a very direct guy, pics up all the “direct” delegates from West Virginia. Bump him up 34 to 1,143 with everyone else remaining unchanged.

#5 — The “Lost” Votes Favor Trump

We’ve now accounted for a total of 2,402 votes and Trump has picked up 1,143. But as you can see just about anywhere, a total of 1,237 delegates is needed to win the nomination. And as you can see here, there are a total of 2,472 delegates up for grabs. So we’re missing like (pulls out calculator) 70 of these bad boys.

Where did they go?

For starters, we’re not done with Super Tuesday. What do I mean by that? Consider the State of Georgia. At the time of this publication Georgia’s 76 delegates were awarded as follows: 40 to Trump, 18 to Cruz, 14 to Rubio. The other four delegates are MIA. And other states are like this too. As of right now, Arkansas and Minnesota are both missing a delegate. Tennessee and Vermont are missing four. Oklahoma has six unaccounted for. Texas is missing 20. That gives us a total of 40 delegates. Where do those go? Let’s assign them as generously as possible, state-by-state to Trump (note: I’m making all of this up!):

· Arkansas — Trump won narrowly as a percentage but picked up the most delegates. Let’s give him the one missing delegate.

· Georgia — He won by about 14%, so let’s give him all four.

· Minnesota — Rubio won handily here, so it’s hard to give a delegate to Trump. The delegate goes to Rubio.

· Oklahoma — Trump trailed Cruz by just 6% and is trailing 14 delegates to 12. Let’s pretend they split the remaining six — three for Trump, three for Cruz.

· Tennessee — Trump won by a yuuuuge margin here. Let’s give him all four.

· Texas — Trump got about 25% of the overall vote so let’s give him 25% of the 20 outstanding delegates (so five more for Trump). Let’s give Cruz 10, Rubio three and Kasich and Carson each one.

· Vermont: He won the state so let’s give him all of them. Four more for Trump.

The new delegate totals:

· Trump: 1,164 Total

· Cruz: 742 Total

· Rubio: 376 Total

· Kasich: 125 Total

· Carson: 21 Total

· Bush: 8 Total

· Fiorina: 2 Total

· Huckabee: 2 Total

· Paul: 2 Total

What now? We’re at a total of 2,442 projected total delegates, which means we’re missing 30. Where do those 30 come from and where do they go? Presumably they are bought and paid for by the Koch Brothers so let’s give them to Rubio.

Just kidding.

They really don’t matter one iota. Because even if Trump won every single one of them he’d only get to 1,194 total delegates. That’s not enough to secure the nomination.

Thus (surprise, surprise here), we get to a brokered/contested convention and all bets are off. At that point almost anyone in the world could be the Republican nominee, because that’s how this one-step-ahead party works. Do you want to be president? I can’t promise you the gig yet, but I can put out feelers and at least get the ball rolling. Just let me know.

Conclusion

Donald Trump is trying to be everything for everyone. If you like an individual healthcare mandate, he’s the candidate for you. If you hate universal healthcare, he’s the candidate for you. If you are pro-Israel, he’s the candidate for you. If you are pro-Palestine, he’s the candidate for you. If you think David Duke is a scumbag, he’s the candidate for you. If you don’t really know who David Duke is, he’s the candidate for you. If you’re so Christian that you’re targeted by the IRS, he’s the candidate for you. If you don’t have a favorite Bible verse, he’s the candidate for you.

If somebody can confidently play every single role there is, it’s hard to beat him. And that’s where the sneaky genius of the Republican Party comes into play. They don’t need another cover-all, they’re just going to piece together a slew of other candidates and cover all their basis.

Oh hi, you’re a strict-constitituionalist? Let me introduce you to Ted Cruz. He’s that thing all the time.

Oh hi, you want seasoned Washington leadership and fiscal responsibility? Let me introduce you to John Kasich, he’s that all the time.

Oh hi, you want a young optimist to bring forth a new era for the party? Let me introduce you to Marco Rubio, he’s that all the time.

Oh hi, you want the brother of a POTUS and the son of a POTUS and a former governor? Let me introduce you to Jeb Bush, he’s that all the time.

Oh hi, you want a female titan of corporate America? Let me introduce you to Carly Fiorina, she’s that all the time.

Oh hi, you want a chill libertarian-ish bro who either makes total sense or makes no sense at all depending on your own views? Let me introduce you to Rand Paul, he’s that all the time.

Oh hi, you want a doctor who doesn’t really say much and talks with his eyes shut? Let me introduce you to Ben Carson, he’s that all the time.

The Republican Party doesn’t need to consolidate. It’s already dumped all the non-delegate receivers like Jim Gilmore and Chris Christie. This thing is playing out exactly how it was supposed to all along. Never a doubt. The plan is absolutely genius.

I mean Republicans are [this] close to putting whoever they hell they want (other than Trump) on November’s ballot. The path is clear: 1. Keep your large margins in proportional states, Mr. Trump; just don’t make them any bigger. 2. Marco and John, win your home states like normal human beings. Even Ted could do it. 3. Everybody keep winning at a comparable rate and within comparable states when we get winner-take all battlegrounds. 4. And let’s not let weird things get too weird. 5. Let’s find those missing delegates.

There’s no way Trump can win. And the best part is it’s jokesters like Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush and Ben Carson ruining everything. I mean Ben Carson is stopping Trump with his eyes closed! Carly is stopping him from her house. Rand is stopping him with a name like “Rand.”

What an epic long con by an entire nation of conservatives! Don’t come into our party with your bad haircuts and your bad spray tans and your wishy-washy stances on everything you ever stand on and expect to actually win the nomination. HA! We have organized plans in place to keep you a few dozen delegates short.

So what’s it gonna be, Mr. Trump? Scenario A or Scenario B?

Scenario A

In Scenario A you make it to the World Series. Your team loses game 1 because you were never a real contender. You weren’t even supposed to be on such a yuuuuge stage. But then games 2, 3 and 4 go your way. Games 5 and 6 go to your more established foe and game 7 is in extra innings.

Extra innings get ugly. Real ugly. Tied 0–0 at the bottom of the 33rd, the commissioner trots out to the mound and meets both teams’ managers.

“This is awful, folks. Only 12 people are still watching at home. That’s down from last year’s World Series viewership of 37 people. But we’ve still got a stadium filled with fans who think they’re witnessing history. Here’s what we’re going to do: We’re going to ask each fan to write down on a card which team manager they like more. Whoever gets the most votes wins the World Series.”

Trump agrees because even his enormous brain is out of answers and he’s out of players, wives and paid-for-Democrats in the bullpen. All that’s left is Don Jr. and he does not want his fate in Don Jr.’s hands. The votes are cast and they’re voted. No one picks Trump. He’s fired. He’s a loser.

In epic fashion he has lost the only thing he cared about.

Scneario B

Halfway into the season Trump realizes he’s not qualified to run a baseball team. He quits knowing he can’t possibly win despite leading the division.