Best & Worst of the NFL Draft — Dynasty Football Factory
The mission of this article is to make our in-house experts sizzle and bristle over the hot-button issues that face dynasty owners. Our experts make the entire route tree HOT as they address topics from the world of IDP, Devy, Start/sit, Non-PPR, PPR and everything in between. Try not to get burned by all the fiery YAC below! This is Dynasty Hot Routes!
Who had the best and worst pick of round one for Dynasty purposes?
Joshua Johnson — The worst has to be O.J. Howard and David Njoku for me. Both are seemingly more valuable as blockers and decoys now. This could be the Bucs overreacting to the Saints finally getting a legitimate cornerback in Marshon Lattimore. I have been pounding home that Howard is more safe than sexy. This proves that theory and it will also limit his production. The addition of Chris Godwin further dilutes the target share. Yes, this fantastic news for Jameis Winston but it is an incredibly murky situation for his pass catchers. Now to Cleveland, unless Njoku is going to replace Terrelle Pryor’s targets, I am not buying in round one. Hopefully, the Browns wind up with Josh Rosen in 2018.
The best has to be Jamal Adams to the Jets. Let’s assume that he doesn’t play cornerback. Adams will be a rover back and give the Jets what Landon Collins gives the Giants. Adams will see a snap majority sooner than most rookie DBs because the Jets already need him to make 80 plus tackles. The Jets may even cut or trade Calvin Pryor. Also, don’t forget that Jets HC Todd Bowles was the DC in Arizona when Tyrann “Honey Badger” Mathieu was a rookie.
Brad McDaniel — The best round one pick from a Dynasty standpoint is Corey Davis to the Titans. The Titans don’t have a receiver on their roster like Corey Davis. Rishard Matthews is a contributor. Tajae Sharpe disappeared. Harry Douglas, well, he’s still on the roster. Davis is the first complete receiver that the Titans have had in quite some time and a second option for Mariota in the red zone.
The worst pick of round one was Mitchell Trubisky to the Bears. Unnecessarily trading up aside, taking a quarterback with only 13 career NCAA starts is questionable at best. The Bears could have addressed a different position of need at #3 overall and still selected a quarterback of equal talent in round 2.
Shaun Laibe — The best landing spot for me was John Ross in Cincinnati. Ross immediately fills a hole for the Bengals that opened after Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu left town. Ross and his 4.2 speed give Andy Dalton and company another deep threat. This will take a lot of pressure off of AJ Green as well as open things up for the running game.
I hated seeing Evan Engram go to the Giants. Eli Manning and company added Sterling Shepard in last year’s draft as well as Brandon Marshall in free agency this offseason. With so many mouths to feed, Engram could struggle to find targets early on in his rookie year. Time in the NFL is running out for the 36-year-old Manning. How much longer will he be able to produce at an elite level?
John Orr — Corey Davis landed in my best case landing spot. Working with a solid offensive line, good running backs, and Marcus Mariota at QB, good things are coming. Corey Davis will work his way into the number one WR in Tennessee in short order.
Need to go with one IDP as well here, Jarred Davis! Did he walk into a good spot to play in? Coverage ability keeps him on the field all three downs. Stock on the rise!
Worst landing spot, Jonathan Allen, Washington. This one hurt me. Made me slightly ill. Washington is changing up the defense and will be going more two gap now. This will not be the best for him.
Greg Brandt — The best landing spot was Christian McCaffrey. With an aging Jonathan Stewart, I don’t see much competition for carries/receptions. Stewart’s time in Carolina is most likely coming to an end, and I would imagine in 2018 McCaffery will be the primary back in Carolina if not by the end of the 2017 season.
The worst landing spot was Mike Williams. The Chargers already have Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams. This move will be a major blow to Tyrell Williams. Tyrell is a player who I own in many dynasty leagues, so this one hits close to home. With a top 10 draft pedigree, Mike Williams will be afforded every opportunity in the world to snag a starting spot. Tyrell Williams days with the Chargers look like they are coming to an end.
Brian Hawkes — The best landing spot is Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. Being drafted 8 overall gives him significant equity (and already makes him one of the higher-paid RBs in the league), which should lead to good volume of carries/ targets. McCaffrey’s versatility makes him game-script proof; he can contribute as a pass catcher when playing from behind, and can carry the load if his team has a lead.
The worst landing spot was Mitchell Trubisky to Chicago. I have no idea what the Bears are doing. Trubisky isn’t worth the 2nd overall pick, let alone trading up to grab him. I wish him the very best in what could be a difficult situation for the foreseeable future.
Shane Manila — Pat Mahomes landing in Kansas City is the perfect landing spot for his long-term development. Mahomes has incredible physical tools. His decision making is a bit suspect. Sitting behind Alex Smith for a season and getting coached up by Andy Reid can do nothing but help Mahomes become a more fundamentally sound QB. With Alex Smith, an almost guaranteed cap causality due to his the dead cap hit dropping significantly after the 2017 season, Mahomes should starting no later than 2018.
O.J. Howard was criminally underused while at Alabama, and I think that continues in the NFL. At the time he was drafted Howard already had to compete with Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate and Charles Sims for targets. The Bucs then added Chris Godwin and Jeremy McNichols later in the draft. A lot of mouths to feed and I see Howard as the 3rd option going forward for as long as Evans, Jackson/Godwin are in Tampa Bay.
Who were the best and worst pick of day two for Dynasty purposes?
Joshua Johnson — Dalvin Cook is the easy answer for the best. The Vikings were always a tough out when AP was rolling with 15+ carries per game; Cook can give them exactly that. The great news is that Cook can be a true weapon in the passing as well. You Superflex nerds best get used to Davis Webb who will inherit Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram.
The worst has to be the Bucs seemingly ready to make Kendell Beckwith their SLB when he is fully healthy. With Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David rampaging it won’t leave much for Beckwith.
Brad McDaniel — The best pick of day two was Joe Mixon. I’m a huge fan of his, and I was just waiting for one team, any team, to spend some draft capital on him so I could move him a little higher in my rankings. Cincinnati is a good fit for him from both a culture and offensive perspective.
There were several picks on day two that I didn’t like. Zay Jones to Buffalo and Alvin Kamara to New Orleans are two that come to mind, but C.J. Beathard to San Francisco is the worst. Hands down. He was drafted about 10 rounds too early. A game manager at best at Iowa, he won’t ever have any fantasy impact.
Shaun Laibe — The best landing spot I saw from day two was DeShone Kizer with the Browns. Kizer may be more of a raw talent than the other QBs taken in Round 1, but opportunity is everything in today’s NFL. The same holds true for fantasy. With Cleveland’s lack of success at QB, Kizer should make his way on the field before higher draft picks like Pat Mahomes. I especially like Kizer in Superflex leagues.
The worst landing spot from day two was Alvin Kamara with the Saints. I was a giant fan of Kamara out of Tennessee, but he could not have ended up in a more crowded backfield. New Orleans recently signed Adrian Peterson and still has Mark Ingram, Daniel Lasco and Travaris Cadet on the roster. Kamara is sliding down my rookie draft list but could move back up if the Saints eventually part ways with Ingram.
Brian Hawkes — The best landing spot was Dalvin Cook to Minnesota. Minnesota’s offensive line was in shambles throughout ’16, and most pundits will say the Vikings will have a terrible offensive line in ‘17…This may be true, but it is important to note, the Vikings will likely have overhauled their starting OL by 80% to start the 2017 season. Cook is an ideal fit in Shurmur’s scheme, and in the event the OL is subpar, he has shown an ability to play well despite poor blocking as indicated by his success at Florida State (with a weak OL).
The worst landing spot was Chris Godwin to Tampa Bay. Godwin entered the draft as a potential first round rookie draft player — that cannot be the case any longer. This situation is reminiscent of Leonte Carroo to Miami last year; there is just too much competition for targets with the weapons Tampa Bay has on offense now. The players Godwin competes with for targets have significant draft equity or financial commitment (Evans, Howard, DJax), which leaves Godwin to pick up the scraps.
Shane Manila — If you listened to me on Friday, you would probably be surprised by this, but my choice is Joe Mixon. Thinking further about this landing spot it dawned on me that Jeremy Hill sucks at football and Gio Bernard is recovering from a torn ACL which probably will lead to him beginning the season on the PUP. Mixon has the rushing and receiving ability to make both Hill and Bernard obsolete in the Bengals offense, and I believe he’ll do so in short order.
I’m keeping it positive today. I don’t dislike anyone’s landing spot, so I’m going to discuss another landing spot I’ve warmed up to. JuJu Smith-Schuster landing in Pittsburgh is going to end up being a stellar spot for him. Martavis Bryant is not going to be in Pittsburgh beyond 2017. I am a Sammie Coates truther, but I recognize even on his best days he’ll never be a consistent WR2 for a team. Smith-Schuster is a big bodied receiver who’s college breakout age was superb. He is going to be a rising star in the high-powered Steelers offense.
John Orr — Kareem Hunt, Kansas City. He will have a role day one. Between the tackles, he can move the chain, and with his vision I expect him to find some nice chunks of yardage, which means our fantasy teams will be scoring! PPR for me adds the extra value with him here. Nice hands mean Andy Reid will find ways to keep him on the field.
Kendall Beckwith going to Tampa was a killer for him. Crowded lB core already, and not much of a role that I see for him. Going into the draft He would have been more of a two down player I thought, going into Tampa leaves him as a depth piece only. Not touching him right now.
Which player has moved the most on your boards because of landing spot?
Brad McDaniel — I’ve never been high on Juju Smith-Schuster. Juju landing in Pittsburgh has changed my mind a little. There weren’t many favorable landing spots but this one was that caught my attention. There’s just something about players in that Steelers’ offense that excites me. The worst case scenario is being stuck as the third option behind Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. The best case scenario is taking over for Bryant whether that’s because of another suspension or after the Steelers let him walk.
Shaun Laibe — Kareem Hunt is flying up my rookie draft board after landing with the Kansas City Chiefs. Hunt joins a Chiefs team that ran the ball a whopping 412 times in 2016. Spencer Ware started 14 games last year, but only managed 921 yards and 3 TDs with his rushes. Hunt provides an immediate upgrade over Ware in terms ball security having just 1 fumble over his last 800 touches at Toledo. Meanwhile, Ware put the ball on the ground 5 times in 247 total touches last season. Hunt has also proven his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield in college, a skill that is a necessity for backs in today’s NFL. Before the draft, Hunt was a mid to late 2nd round pick. After landing with the Chiefs, I’m moving him up to a late 1st round pick.
Greg Brandt — The running back position had some wins during the second day of the draft. Starting with Dalvin Cook to the Vikings. He has the potential to come in and have an immediate impact in a weak backfield, but a weak offensive line could hinder production. Joe Mixon landing on the Bengals was an ideal spot for him. Gio Bernard is coming off a major knee injury, and Jeremy Hill hasn’t lived up to the hype from the tail end of his rookie season. Alvin Kamara landed in a good spot with the Saints. His pass catching ability will be able to be showcased in New Orleans.
Carries might be limited early in his career due to Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram but should still have substantial playing time in a pass catching role. Kareem Hunt to the Chiefs is an exciting scenario. Other than Spencer Ware the Chiefs don’t have much at running back. Hunt has the potential to take over the top spot from Ware in 2018.
Chris Godwin had one of the more disappointing landing spots on the second day of the draft. Going to Tampa Bay Godwin will immediately be behind Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. First round draft pick OJ Howard is another target in that offense that could potentially keep Godwin’s fantasy production low at this point. Taywan Taylor is another receiver landing in a spot of numerous other targets. The Titans already have Rishard Matthews, Tajae Sharpe, Corey Davis and Delanie Walker. Taylor may get overshadowed for his first couple of years in the league.
Shane Manila — Already being a bit iffy on drafting Tight ends in the 1st round of rookie drafts O.J. Howard landing in Tampa Bay has ended any thoughts I had of drafting him in the 1st round. Being blunt, I won’t draft Howard unless it’s a 2 TE league.
Someone moving up my draft board is Kenny Golladay. Golladay is a small school, size speed freak, who was uber productive in college. I was thinking of drafting Golladay late in rookie drafts or as a free agent immediately after those drafts until the Lions made him a 3rd round draft pick. I expected him to go much later in the draft and his landing spot should provide an excellent oppurtunity to begin the season as the Lions WR3. Now I can see drafting him in the 3rd round if not earlier.
Brian Hawkes — Chris Godwin. I was optimistic about Godwin’s chances entering the draft and would have considered him in the first round. As noted earlier, there are simply too many mouths to feed to lead to enough volume for Godwin to succeed. He’s a late 2nd/ early 3rd rounder now.
John Orr — Ryan Switzer moved onto my target list. I play in a handful of return yardage leagues and he adds extra value in those. He very well could slide his way into that 2nd WR role next season. Looking at 2017 I like his chances at getting some snaps to make him an option in my deep starting requirement leagues. A shifty player who I want on my teams.
Originally published at dynastyfootballfactory.com on May 1, 2017.