Breaking Running Backs with @Amazehayes_DFF
This article is one of four articles that will focus on the relationship between fantasy success and NFL success. This study has been an interest of mine for some time now. I have often wondered if there was any connection between fantasy success and NFL success at each position. I also wondered if maybe I was thinking too hard into why one player is better than another for fantasy or if this research would actually have meaning. These findings are not meant to be a be-all and end-all when it comes to rankings or player tiebreakers, but I do believe it carries some weight when it comes to fantasy success. This article will focus strictly on the running back position. This is the second of a four-part series. If you missed the first article on quarterbacks, click here. The next two articles will feature wide receivers and tight ends.
The Question
Does a fantasy RB1 have to play for a winning team* in the NFL in that respective year? In addition, what proportion of fantasy RB1’s played for playoff teams in that respective year?
*I am defining a “winning team” as any team with 8 or more wins (.500 or above) in a single season.
The Data
For this case study, I looked at each fantasy RB1 in every year since 2000. From there, I found the proportion of fantasy RB1’s that were on a winning team and a playoff team in that respective year. The positional rankings are based on 1 point per 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD and 1 point per reception. For further clarification, here is how the top-5 looked for 2016:
A “1” in the “Winning Team” and “Playoff” columns indicates that criteria is true. As you can see, Zeke, Bell, and Murray were all on winning teams, but Murray failed to make the playoffs. On the other hand, the Cardinals and Bills failed to reach .500 and missed the playoffs. This was done for every fantasy RB1 since 2000.
Results
Before I finished the results, I took a minute to ponder what I should expect based on my knowledge of the NFL alone. You know that a fantasy RB1 is putting up great numbers statistically, easily over 1,000 yards rushing and 300 or more through the air, with 8 or more touchdowns. Basic NFL knowledge would tell you that a running back sees more volume when their team is ahead and they are trying to kill time. This should mean that we would expect a high percentage of fantasy RB1’s to be on winning teams. Let’s check the results:
I explained how to read this graph in the QB article, but here’s a quick rundown: the top-12 was divided into 4 subcategories. In each category, the graph shows us the percentage of RBs on winning teams, with the expected number of RBs above each bar.
As you can see, we can expect 8 of the 12 RB1’s to finish on winning teams (first bar). When you break the top-12 into the three other categories, we can get a clearer image of the top-12 rushers. Similar to QBs, the elite rushers (top-3) have a very high percentage of backs from winning teams. Of the top-3, we can expect at least two to come from winning teams, if not all three. In fact, when we extend the top-3 to the top-6, we see that nearly 5 of the top-6 backs come from winning teams, on average. Where the percentages get interesting is outside the top-6 in the last subcategory.
As shown in the graph, about 63% of the backs in the bottom half of the top-12 (RB7–12) come from winning teams. That is a big difference compared to the other three categories. This means we can only expect about 3–4 of the backs ranked 7–12 to come from winning teams.
Now here are the results for running backs from playoff teams:
The graph is read the same as the previous one. From this graph, we can see that less than half of the running backs in the top-12 come from playoff teams. That means at least 3 of the 8 backs on winning teams will fail to make the playoffs. We also see that the distribution is roughly the same as above, with the elite and top-half percentages significantly higher than the bottom half percentage.
The bottom half percentage shows that only 2 of the bottom 6 backs will be on playoff teams. This overall distribution shows that running back play fantasy-wise is not very proportional to NFL success by making the playoffs.
Interpretation
Similar to QBs, being on a winning team in the NFL does not guarantee you a top-12 fantasy finish, but it does elevate your ceiling. We see this from the first graph, where 8 of the 12 RB1’s come from winning teams. When you break it down farther, we see that the majority of RB1’s from losing teams finish in the bottom half of the top-12, minus a few elite cases. While there are 12 cases of an RB from a sub-.500 team finishing in the top-3, every back was an elite rusher in his time and nearly all are Hall of Famers. Maurice Jones-Drew actually did it three times.
The fact remains that a back on a sub-.500 team has a lower fantasy ceiling than backs on above-.500 teams. This makes sense if we remember our basic football knowledge that teams run less when they are losing. The interesting thing, however, is that the closer a team is to .500, even if they are above, their running back still has a lower ceiling than a playoff team’s running back. This is shown in the second graph, where only 2 of the expected 5 backs in the top-12 from playoff teams finish in the bottom half. These are the backs who are talented enough to see a high volume of touches, but are not relied upon heavily in their offense like the elite workhorses at the top. The back half of the top-12 is also where we see the one-and-done backs who have one breakout year then return to nothingness. Some PPR backs also break into the bottom half of the top-12.
Conclusion
Overall, the running back position shakes up similar to the quarterback position. We can expect about 8 of the top-12 backs to finish on winning teams, with a higher density of those backs at the top half than bottom half. Like quarterbacks, it is not a requirement for a running back to be on a winning team to finish inside the top-12, but it certainly helps. According to the results, we can expect 4–5 of the top 6 backs to finish on a winning team. These are the elite rushers who are not just contributors, but elite weapons in their offenses. These backs are leaned on week-in and week-out to produce consistently to help their teams win. The top of the running back food chain is held by the elite 3-down bell-cows. Think David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, and Devonta Freeman.
The results tell a different story when you reach the bottom of the top-12. As mentioned above, the expected number of backs from winning teams drops after the top-6 from nearly five to 3 or 4. This shows us that backs on sub-.500 teams are capped due to either lesser volume or lesser efficiency. These backs might be a lone bright spot on a team that is struggling around them but find a way to manage given their talent. The bottom of the food chain is occupied by talented backs in bad situations. Think Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, and Isaiah Crowell.
Looking at backs on winning teams is fine and dandy, but looking at backs on playoff teams really parses the top-12. We see that the majority of backs on playoff teams in the NFL finish inside the top-6 in fantasy. This can show us the backs who are on middling teams that just didn’t have enough to get into the tournament. These backs are in good situations, but they have better fantasy success than NFL success. The middle of the food chain contains sad real-life players, but leave fantasy owners smiling. Think LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, and Jay Ajayi.
Be sure to keep an eye out for the next article in this series on wide receivers and then tight ends. If you missed the first article on quarterbacks, be sure to catch up before the next article drops. Stay tuned!
Originally published at dynastyfootballfactory.com on August 24, 2017.
