Dynasty Buys, Sells, and Holds: Minnesota Vikings By: Jake Anderson
Trying to forecast the dynasty stock market can be a daunting process. We have to account for what seems to be limitless variables. Coaching changes, draft picks, age, and even contracts all factor into whether we should buy, hold, or sell a player.
“IT’S JUST BUSINESS. EVERYTHING IS JUST BUSINESS WITH US: BUY FOR A NICKEL, SELL FOR A DIME.” — SPIROS “VONDAS” –THE WIRE
In my opinion, no quote could ever better encapsulate the meaning of “Buying Low and Selling High” than the one posted above. Whereas Vondas was referring to something else entirely, this quote always comes to mind when pondering the trade market. Below I will analyze the buys, sells, holds from the Minnesota Vikings. But I would like to make one point clear before we dive into those players. Each league and team construction will greatly determine if a player is a buy, sell, or hold. I hope this list will help you in your quest to dynasty dominance. Enjoy.
Rudolph had his best season as a professional in 2016 and finished the year with 83 receptions, 840 yards, and 7 touchdowns. This production landed him as the 2nd best TE in fantasy football. (Of course, Gronk, Reed, and Eifert missing extended amounts of playing time certainly helped his end of year rank.) Despite his success, Rudolph finds himself as the 14th TE off the board in startups according to DFF’s May ADP. Rudolph is only 27 years old, and Sam Bradford targeted him consistently in 2016. With a full offseason to improve their chemistry, I expect an even better output between the duo this coming season. Rudolph is my favorite buy low TE of the offseason. If you’re sloughing off the position in startups, Rudolph would be one of the guys I’d recommend you acquire late in drafts or as a cheap trade target.
Before last year, if you weren’t a Minnesota Vikings fan, you most likely had no idea who this kid was. Thielen has battled his way to become a weapon in Minnesota’s offense. Thielen was an undrafted rookie, who was signed by the Vikings after a rookie tryout in 2013. After years on the practice squad and contributing on special teams, Thielen came on strong once he was given an opportunity last year. Thielen ended up leading the Vikings with 967 receiving yards, while also adding 69 catches and 5 touchdowns. Bradford showed trust in Thielen early and often as he became one of the team’s go-to targets in critical situations. Thielen’s 10.0 yards per target and 75% catch rate was top 5 among NFL wide receivers and shows he’s more than just a possession wide receiver. He can stretch the field and is a bigger target than most would think, coming in at 6’2″ and over 200 lbs. I recommend buying everywhere you can before his value gets too costly; his current value as WR58 in DFF’s May ADP is undervalued.
I will have most people shaking their proverbial heads at me with this one, but just hear me out…Diggs has shown flashes of brilliance on the field, being compared to a mini Antonio Brown. I absolutely love Diggs as a player but as far as dynasty goes, I have my concerns.
Let’s start with his injury history; Diggs hasn’t missed many games in his NFL career, but he’s constantly on the injury report and you rarely feel comfortable about his ability to stay off of it. Since he entered the league in 2015, he’s dealt with nagging soft tissue injuries, as well as knee, and hip injuries. This is what you have to deal with week to week as a Stefon Diggs owner:
The next piece of the puzzle is his lack of effectiveness in the red zone. Although getting 112 targets last year, he only managed only 3 touchdowns. His size and frame do not scream red zone target, and he might even lose snaps in the red zone come next season if Laquon Treadwell, or Bucky Hodges, can carve out a role. Diggs has the potential to be a PPR monster, but at his current value as WR24, I don’t know if I ever see his ADP rise from this point.
Lastly, the Minnesota Vikings are not a high octane offense and have made it clear that they want to become more of a grind it out running type of offense (Strong Defense and drafting of Dalvin Cook). I can’t state this strongly enough: I LOVE Stefon Diggs as a player, but the combination of this injury history, lack of red zone effectiveness, and bottom half offense — I’d at least be checking to see what you can get for him this offseason. In no way, shape, or form am I advocating for you to sell Diggs on the cheap, but if you can get a haul for him, I think you might have to strongly consider moving him before it’s too late.
After having one of the most uninspiring rookie seasons for a first round WR in NFL history, Treadwell deserves a shot at redemption. Last year Treadwell’s head was spinning trying to learn Norv Turner’s complex playbook. (Norv is also known for not “dumbing down” his playbook to make things easier for rookies.) The combination of trying to learn a complex playbook and having his starting QB (Teddy Bridgewater) go down before the season, killed Treadwell’s confidence. After working in OTA’s, minicamps, and training camp with Bridgewater…Teddy suddenly goes down. Bradford then gets acquired, and Treadwell is again tasked with building rapport with a new QB. Just when things couldn’t seem worse, Minnesota’s Offensive Coordinator, Norv Turner, retires midseason and Treadwell has to learn yet another system. The constant change and adversity Treadwell faced clearly impacted his confidence; When an athlete’s confidence gets broken, and they start over-thinking things, they lose their natural ability to just go out there and play “their” game.
This offseason there have been good reports about Treadwell’s understanding of the playbook, his ability to get set in the proper positions, and most importantly, he’s shown renewed confidence going up against one of the best corners in the league in Xavier Rhodes in OTAs and minicamp. Treadwell has a lot to prove, but at this time last year, his ADP was 27 overall for a reason — his talent and draft equity. This year his current ADP is 141. Talk about getting a discount on a player that was highly drafted and well sought after just a year ago! I recommend you don’t sell at this point. Treadwell might not become a fantasy producer in 2017, but you can’t give up on him this early. Please, don’t sell low on Laquon Treadwell, let him sit on your bench and regain some value before you decide you kick the tires.
Originally published at dynastyfootballfactory.com on June 23, 2017.