Fantasy football impact of Aaron Rodgers broken collar-bone.

Sunday’s action brought yet another catastrophic injury for the NFL and fantasy football. Aaron Rodgers was lost in the first quarter to what was later confirmed to be a broken collarbone. Rodgers will miss most if not the rest of the regular season, eliminating him for the rest of the fantasy season.

Anthony Barr did the damage on the play below. Now we’re left to dissect what this means for fantasy purposes going forward.

Here’s the Aaron Rodgers injury… fell right on his right shoulder…. pic.twitter.com/EAuz571n89
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) October 15, 2017

Brett Hundley

After Hundley entered the game for the injured Rodgers, his first pass attempt was promptly intercepted. I wish I could tell you that Hundley’s performance improved later, but I don’t like to lie to people. Hundley ended the day with 3 interceptions to 1 touchdown, added a fumble and ended the day with a 54.5% completion percentage. I typically don’t mention QB ratings, but in this case, I feel the need to make an exception. On the day Hundley finished with a 39.6 QB rating, that’s just not very good. Hundley hasn’t been receiving starting reps during practice, so I’m willing to allow that it may be best to reserve judgment for a few games.

Hundley has an impressive SPARQ score on the aggregate, but that’s built off the back of speed, burst, and agility. Where Hundley is lacking was the Wonderlic, which I don’t put any stock in, and more importantly his throw velocity. Aaron Rodgers PlayerProfiler page lacks his throw velocity, but I’ll go out on a limb and guess it’s much higher than 53 MPH. I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that DeShaun Watson is another player with a low throw velocity, 49 MPH to be exact, but that hasn’t hindered him from being one of the top scoring QBs since he ascended to the starter role. Having watched several Texans games I haven’t seen any issues with Watson’s deep ball. Watson is actually second in the league with 33 deep ball attempts, showing that throw velocity doesn’t preclude deep passes.

I do doubt we’ll see any plays where Hundley rolls out and tosses a laser 40 yards downfield to Jordy Nelson, but based on his athleticism perhaps the Packers will use Hundley in the running game.

Hundley was asked to run the ball a lot during his time at UCLA and didn’t have an impressive ypc.

Hundley’s highlight film belies his low college ypc though. Based on his tape Hundley is athletic enough to make a defense pay with his legs if they don’t account for his rushing ability.

Until taking over on Sunday Hundley has seen very little game action. Hundley has thrown for 17 yards on 11 attempts, completing 3 passes and one interception. Trying to determine anything from that limited amount of data is almost pointless.

Sundays Action

One game is not ideal, but it’s the most extensive amount of data we can parse to determine how Hundley will run the offense in Rodgers absence. When judging Hundley’s performance it’s important to remember, he entered the game with no notice, no practice reps with the 1’s during the week, and in the road game. It’d be foolhardy to expect a young player to excel considering the context.

Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams paced the Packers with 10 targets a piece. Martellus Bennett saw 4 targets, while Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery each garnered three targets.

Geronimo Allison saw 2 targets.

In a game that Green Bay was behind for most of the day, there were only 33 pass attempts. Entering Sunday, the Packers were 10th in the league averaging 38 attempts per game.

Going Forward

Without Aaron Rodgers throwing them the ball, Nelson and Adams will suffer some decreased production. You can’t simply replace a HOF level QB and not expect it to impact the receivers negatively. But Hundley did target Nelson and Adams significantly Sunday as noted, and I fully expect that to be par for the course.

The ancillary pieces on the Packers, namely Randall Cobb and Martellus Bennett are most likely to suffer from a reduced pass volume.

Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery could especially suffer without Aaron Rogers for defenses to worry about. Both running backs have performed poorly against stack fronts, Jones .5 ypc is 46th while Montgomery is even worse at .3 ypc coming in at #51st.

If any of your league mates are willing to sell at a decreased cost on Davante Adams and Aaron Jones I suggest you buy. Both are young enough and have shown enough for me to believe in them going forward. I’ll pass on Jordy Nelson since he’ll turn 33 by the time Aaron Rodgers returns from injury. I prefer Aaron Jones over Montgomery due to Jones being the more efficient player producing 5.5. yards per touch as opposed to Montgomery’s 4.4 average. Jones has also matched Montgomery’s usage in the red-zone, 9 touches, on almost 30 less overall touches on the season.

Thank you for reading. Feel free to give me a follow at @DFF_Shane and we can chat about whatever crosses your mind.


Originally published at dynastyfootballfactory.com on October 16, 2017.