How to Build Your 2QB Draft Board
If you have played fantasy football for any length of time, you know that drafting quarterbacks early is a losing strategy. During the 2014–2016 seasons, the NFL averaged 240 yards passing a game. For comparison, between 2005–2007 teams averaged 207 yards a game. That’s like getting two extra games of production a year from your starting QB. This is the reason why late round QB drafting has become the standard. You can draft starting QBs in the 10th round (Stafford, Rivers) of 12 team leagues that will score almost the same and sometimes even more than QBs drafted in the 4th (Luck, Rodgers). This has severely deflated the most important position in football.
Most fantasy players want the leagues they play in to be as authentic to the game they watch on Sundays, and in recent years leagues have started to implement changes to combat this devaluation of QBs. One being superflex leagues where you can start a QB, RB, WR, or TE in one flex spot. Since QBs tend to score more points, almost every team will want to start a QB in this spot thus increasing the value of QBs. The second set up that raises the value of QBs is 2QB leagues. In these leagues, you HAVE to start two QBs, and if you wait too long on QBs in the draft, you will be assured of the first overall pick the next season and maybe longer. Maybe you are asking yourself how early is too early to draft your signal callers because you don’t want to miss out on elite talent like Odell Beckham and David Johnson. Below I hope to explain a sure fire way you can nail your 2QB draft.
First thing first you will need to know how many starting QBs will be rolled out each week in your league. For example: if you play in a 12 team league and each owner is starting 2 QBs the total number of QBs needed is 24. Once you have identified how many starting QBs are needed ALL you have to do is use your favorite dynasty rankings source to make your own 2QB rankings. For this article, I will use the best rankings available which you can find here (FOR FREE)!
These rankings like most others assume a 1QB league and will not help you in your 2QB drafts. But with a “simple” formula you will be able to identify the proper time to draft your QBs.
Then: X-Z= New Rank.
X is defined as the rank or ADP of the QB. Y is defined as number of QBs over 12. Z equals rate of increase.
According to the link above Andrew Luck is the 22nd ranked player for 1QB 12 team league. So if you were going to draft in a 2QB 12 team league, you would have 24 starting QBs. Using this formula, you would get 22(12*.05)=13.2. 22–13.2=8.8.
Let’s look at a later ranked QB just to show what kind of jump they take compared to 1QB leagues. Philip Rivers is ranked 115th. 115(12*.05)= 69. 115–69= 46. This formula will work with 8–14 team 2QB leagues and here is an easy reference of each formula.
8 team 2QB Formula X*(4*.05). X-Z
10 team 2QB Formula X*(8*.05). X-Z
12 team 2QB Formula X*(12*.05). X-Z
14 team 2QB Formula X*(16*.05). X-Z
Some drafters will still want to be the last team to draft their QB1. With this formula you can also estimate what pick that QB will be drafted. For example: In a 10 team league you would take your 10th ranked QB’s rank and plug that into the formula. Again using the link provided earlier that would give us Dak Prescott, ranked 87th, as QB10. 87(8*.05)= 34.8. 87–35.6= 52.2. It would be safe to assume that 10 quarterbacks will be off the board by pick 52. So you should construct your board accordingly if this is your preferred strategy.
This will also work in one QB leagues that start less than 12 teams. All you have to do is change X-Z to X+Z. For example: In an 8 team league that starts one QB, Andrew Luck should be taken at pick 26.4 based on the formula: 22(4*.05)=4.4. 22+4.4= 26.4
Finally, this formula will work with redraft leagues as long as you are using a redraft rankings list.
Now you will no longer have to guess when to draft your QBs. Get out there and join a 2QB league and use this formula then let me know how your drafts turn out. I expect them to be the best ever. There is risk involved with every method but I believe this will give you the biggest advantage in 2QB drafts by allowing you to draft for value at the position while you acquire top talent at other positions.
Originally published at dynastyfootballfactory.com on May 25, 2017.