Las Vegas Betting NFL betting lines with Fantasy Football impacts
One of the tools long known to the daily fantasy sports (DFS) community, but not often used by the season-long fantasy sports player, is how to use the Las Vegas gambling lines for fantasy. The “line” on sporting events can help you as a fantasy owner when it’s time to build a DFS lineup or set your weekly roster in season-long. In short, you can look at a projected game total and point spread and determine the points expected to be scored in any given contest. To be consistent, we all use the lines found here courtesy of our friends at BetOnline.ag.
For example, if Team A is a 10-point favorite over Team B and the game total is 48, you can expect that Team A will score 29 and Team B will score 19. Now, this is neither an exact science, nor accurate 100% of the time, but it will give you a general idea of what to expect from teams on any given week. That same week, Team C might be a 7-point favorite over Team D with a game total of 37, which gives Team C an implied point total of 22 while Team D is expected to score only 15 points.
This is a very simplistic breakdown, but using these examples, we can see that Team A has implied point total of 29 points while Team D is looking at 15 points. Using these examples, more often than not, it would benefit you to use players from Team A rather than Team D.
Each week, Greg Brandt, Rick Kerns, James Hanmore and myself, John Di Bari will provide you with a short breakdown of each game using Las Vegas lines, and you can find the rest of our weekly content, including start-sit suggestions and waiver wire recommendations here. Thank you and good luck.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals -5 (38)
Our thoughts and prayers are with all the people affected by the recent hurricanes. The Texans certainly looked like it was still weighing heavily on them as they were out-played by the Jags last week. The Bengals had no such excuse; they were simply whipped by the Ravens. One of them is going to get right this week, and Vegas seems to think that’ll be the Bengals with their implied total of 21.5. I’d look for the Bengals running game to get on track here after the Jags were able to run well on the Texans last week. Hard to say which of the three Bengals’ backs will benefit though. Based on pure talent, you’d hope Mixon, but I’d be more inclined to think it’ll continue to be a committee until someone breaks from that triumvirate.
As for the Texans’ offense, they will likely start rookie QB Deshaun Watson this week, and I think it’ll be a tough starting debut for him. The Bengals can flat out rush the passer, and it’s been reported Watson may have a slight ankle injury which is sure to affect his mobility. Like Vegas, I believe this will be a low scoring grinder that’s likely to stay under the total — and in the end, the Bengals will do just enough to get the W. (RK)
Tennessee Titans -1.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars (43)
In one of the lower scoring games on Sunday, the Titans are a road favorite and are projected to score only 22 points this week — the 2nd fewest points among favorites. Jacksonville’s defense looks to be one of the best in the NFL and Tennessee laid an egg at home last week, so this will be an interesting early contest in the AFC south We might see a 2–0 Jags team leading a trio of 0–2 teams after this weekend. Jacksonville is expected to score just under 21 points. I look for a close game with the running backs on both sides being prominently featured. Mariota is a solid, if unspectacular, option as always and I’d be willing to take a flier on Corey Davis or Rishard Matthews too. I’m staying away from the Jacksonville receivers in the wake of the Allen Robinson injury until the depth chart shakes out. (JD)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (41)
Here is another quality defense in the Ravens taking on a rookie QB. Albeit after a pretty solid debut by Kizer for the Browns last week. It will be tough sledding for the Browns offense this week, and much like last week, I’d look for a lot of garbage yards out of Kizer, Coleman and probably Duke Johnson — but don’t expect much from the running game. The Ravens have lost Woodhead to a hamstring injury so it’ll be West and Allen handing the backfield duties. Expect Allen to get much work out of the backfield in the passing game as that offense likes the check-downs. It’s anyone’s guess on who the other big factors in that offense will be. Vegas likes the Ravens by a good margin here as they are more than a touchdown favorite with an implied total of 24.25. They’ll cover the implied total and get an easy victory in this one. (RK)
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers -7 (42.5)
The Panthers return home as a decent favorite, projected to score nearly 25 points while hosting a Bills team fresh off a win against the hapless Jets. Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott returns to his old D-Coordinator stomping grounds for the first time while the team is expected to throw 17 points on the board. The Panthers tried to get Christian McCaffrey involved last week and will continue that. As long as Jonathan Stewart is healthy, he’s in play as well. The Bills secondary looked strong (albeit against a Jets weak WR corps), so I’ll be staying away from Kelvin Benjamin and company if I have other options. Shady McCoy is the only play from Buffalo. (JD)
New England Patriots -6.5 at New Orleans Saints (54.5)
The biggest over/under for the week belongs to the Patriots and the Saints at 54.5. The Patriots come in with the highest projected score of the week at 30.5. This could be a big week for the Brady and the rest of the Patriots offense to rebound after the loss to the Chiefs last Thursday. After the blowout loss and Brady completing under 50% of his passes, I expected an angry Tom Brady this week. The Saints gave up over 90+ yards to two different Vikings receivers on Monday night. I look for a big game from Brandin Cooks; he was close to a couple of big plays against the Chiefs. The Saints come into this matchup with the 2nd biggest projected total for an underdog on the week at 24 points. We have very little clarity in the Saints backfield. They feature three different backs with 6- to 7-carries in the game. While Ingram and Kamara are much more active in the passing game, I would play either of them over Peterson. Michael Thomas had a very disappointing Week-1. With the absence of Willie Snead, I see Thomas getting a bigger role in Week-2. As always, Brady and Brees are must-starts — especially with the high over/under for the week. (GB)
The Saints come into this matchup with the 2nd biggest projected total for an underdog on the week at 24 points. We have very little clarity in the Saints backfield. They feature three different backs with 6- to 7-carries in the game. While Ingram and Kamara are much more active in the passing game, I would play either of them over Peterson. Michael Thomas had a very disappointing Week-1. With the absence of Willie Snead, I see Thomas getting a bigger role in Week-2. As always, Brady and Brees are must-starts — especially with the high over/under for the week. (GB)
Arizona Cardinals -7.5 at Indianapolis Colts (44)
The Cardinals and Colts square off in a matchup of 0–1 teams. The over/under for the week comes in at 44. Surprisingly, after the Colts horrible performance Week-1, this isn’t at a lower number. The Cardinals roll into Indianapolis with a projected total of 25.75. After the loss of David Johnson for 2–3 months, the Cardinals have no good options at running back. I don’t expect Kerwynn Williams or Andre Ellington to come in and become good fantasy options. Aside from Larry Fitzgerald, the Cards receiving core has been hit or miss. I expect the Cards to heavily rely on Fitzgerald with the injury to Johnson and the lack of other receiving options. The Colts defense in Week-1 made Jared Goff look like a Hall of Fame quarterback. Even the struggling Carson Palmer could have a big week against this defense. The Colts offense is an absolute mess without Andrew Luck. At this point, I don’t see any good options to start. Hilton and Moncrief are extremely dependant on the crappy play of the Colts’ quarterbacks. Frank Gore might be the best option with a chance to gobble up a short yardage touchdown. The Cardinals defense should be a great option to start in redraft or DFS. (GB)
The Colts defense in Week-1 made Jared Goff look like a Hall of Fame quarterback. Even the struggling Carson Palmer could have a big week against this defense. The Colts offense is an absolute mess without Andrew Luck. At this point, I don’t see any good options to start. Hilton and Moncrief are extremely dependant on the crappy play of the Colts’ quarterbacks. Frank Gore might be the best option with a chance to gobble up a short yardage touchdown. The Cardinals defense should be a great option to start in redraft or DFS. (GB)
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (47.5)
This contest has the 3rd highest total on the board this week, so expect some offensive action on both sides of the ball. With both teams projected to score 3+ touchdowns, look for fantasy production from all the usual suspects, although one has to think Alex Smith’s best game of the year is already behind him. The Philly secondary is porous and got even worse after losing Ronald Darby last week, so maybe Smith will light it up again. This game will probably feature more passing than running, with both teams featuring a strong front-7, so don’t be shocked to see the receivers put up great games on both sides. Additionally, look for the running backs to contribute through the air more as well the week. I’d give Sproles the nod over Blount, for example. (JD)
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (45.5)
WOW, the Vikings looked good Monday night! They are much improved on offense, with Bradford being more comfortable in the system and the offensive line looking significantly better than last year. However, the very poor Saints defense had something to do with that as well. This week, they will find things a bit more difficult against the Steelers, who may have taken the Browns a little lightly last week. I see the Vikings keeping this one close and maybe even pulling the outright win on the backs of their stellar defense and improved offense. It’s perfectly fine to fire up Bradford, Diggs, Thielen, and Cooks — who showed very well Monday night as well. On the other hand, Bell struggled against an improved Browns defense last week, and this Vikings defense is as good as there is in the league. You probably gotta start Big Ben, Bell and AB, but I wouldn’t feel great about any of them. This is a game I see going under the total with the Vikings covering at the very least. However, I’ll call for the upset. I don’t see the Steelers coming close to their implied total of 25.75 either. (RK)
On the other hand, Bell struggled against an improved Browns defense last week, and this Vikings defense is as good as there is in the league. You probably must start Big Ben, Bell and AB, but I wouldn’t feel great about any of them. This is a game I see going under the total with the Vikings covering at the very least. However, I’ll call for the upset. I don’t see the Steelers coming close to their implied total of 25.75 either. (RK)
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 (44)
After having their opening weekend game canceled, the Buccaneers finally get to see game action. The game comes in at a 44 over/under with the Buccaneers as the favorite with a projected 25.5 total. Jameis Winston is a player to keep an eye on in this matchup. The third year quarterback is in line for a big year. Winston is surrounded with talent now. With the addition of DeSean Jackson in the offseason, this should open up the field a bit for Mike Evans. Winston and Evans are must-plays, and we could get sneaky production from the tight end position. The Bears gave up a couple of big plays Week-1 to Falcons tight end Austin Hooper. The Bears had one with one of the lower totals for the week at 18.5. The Bears receiving unit is littered with injuries and has no good alternative options, Tarik Cohen, the rookie darling from Week-1, has the potential to snag some targets from the injured wideouts. Cohen had 8 catches and 1-TD in Week-1. The Buccaneers defense should be a good play. Glennon didn’t look very good in preseason or last week. He’s an interception waiting to happen. (GB)
The Bears receiving unit is littered with injuries and has no good alternative options, Tarik Cohen, the rookie darling from Week-1, has the potential to snag some targets from the injured wideouts. Cohen had 8 catches and 1-TD in Week-1. The Buccaneers defense should be a good play. Glennon didn’t look very good in preseason or last week. He’s an interception waiting to happen. (GB)
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 (45)
With an unexpected bye week, the Dolphins are coming in with an extra week of preparation against a Chargers team playing their first “new” home game — in a city that doesn’t want them — and following a tough divisional loss on Monday Night Football. A fairly average total with projections of roughly 20 and 25 points respectively should keep this competitive and be a decent point producer for fantasy. I’m a little excited to see Smokin’ Jay Cutler back on the field and his reported chemistry with DeVante Parker on display. If the Chargers are winning as projections indicate, expect them to lean on Melvin Gordon to grind this one out in the second half. (JD)
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders -13.5 (43.5)
In one of the more lopsided beatings projected this week, the Raiders are a huge favorite and projected to be one of the 4-highest scoring teams this week, with an implied total of 28.5. Roll out all Raiders in all formats with confidence. Look for the receivers and Carr to run-up the score early while Lynch Grinds them into submission down the stretch. Assuming they want to keep Lynch healthy all season, look for Richard and Washington to get more work than usual once the game is out of hand too. No players on the Jets are playable this week, unless you know who is going to tally up the garbage time points in the air as they struggle to keep up. (JD)
Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (46)
The Redskins looked out of sorts all preseason and that trend continued into Week-1 against the Eagles. The Rams looked great, but they also played the Colts, who might be the worst team in the NFL right now. This game is tied for the 3rd smallest point spread, so look for a close game with Washington projected to score nearly 22 points and the Rams projected for 24. I have a hard time coming up with how the Rams score that many points and I’ll be fading them after a big Week-1. I like the Redskins to get back on track in this one and Pryor, Crowder, and Cousins to get back on track as well. (JD)
Dallas Cowboys -2 at Denver Broncos (43)
As mentioned above, this is the 2nd smallest line of the week, with the Cowboys laying 2-points on the road. Philip Rivers performed well on Monday night against the highly touted Denver secondary, so maybe losing TJ Ward is a bigger deal than we anticipated. Zeke is obviously in play, and Dak might be able to duplicate what we saw from Rivers as well. On the Denver side of the ball, they were pumping the ball to DT and Sanders on the outside, and I anticipate that trend to continue for the rest of the year. (JD)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks -13.5 (43)
In one of this weekends’ most one-sided affairs, the Seahawks are laying 13.5 at home with the second highest projected point total of the week, sitting just above 28 points. Seattle didn’t look good in the opener, but nothing cures your ills like facing an awful 49ers team. Thomas Rawls is expected back, and even in this crowded backfield, he might be a sneaky play in daily fantasy and a hail Mary in season-long leagues. Russ Wilson should have a great game unless his O-line completely fails him. Paul Richardson and Doug Baldwin should be on the receiving end of some huge plays early as well. Fire up all your Seahawks. With the Niners trailing, expect volume from their passing game, but not too much production against a still strong Seattle secondary. San Fran has the lowest projected total at just over 14, which is terrible. I’d roll with Garcon in PPR leagues; all others are entirely avoidable here. (JD)
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (53.5)
The second highest over/under of the week belongs to the Packers and the Falcons. The Falcons come into this matchup as the slight favorite and a projected total of 28. They have the third-highest projected total of the week. Expect some offensive fireworks in this matchup. Expect big weeks from the usual suspects for the Falcons: Ryan, Freeman, and Jones. With the big projected total. Tevin Coleman might even get into the shuffle as well. The Packers 25.5 is the biggest total of the week for an underdog. The Falcons had difficulty Week-1 against running backs catching passes, so look for Ty Montgomery to have a good week receiving out of the backfield. Aaron Rodgers is always a must-start and I like both his top wideouts this week in Nelson and Adams. I would avoid both defenses as this one is expected to be a high-scoring affair. (GB)
Detroit Lions at New York Giants -3.5 (43.5)
In a game with a final projected total of 23.5–20, there will be some points to be had, just not a ton on either side. The Giants looked bad last week, but Odell Beckham, Jr. is expected to return — which is always a good thing. The Lions once again played catch-up after falling behind and coming away with the comeback victory. The Giants are tough defensively, but I have a feeling this turns into a shootout on Monday night — and the Lions have a slight edge in that department. I like all the receivers in this game on both teams and am not looking for much from any of the running backs. (JD)
Thanks again to BetOnline.ag for providing us with the latest up-to-date lines for these contests. We hope you find this tool useful in making lineup decisions each week (and possibly for DFS and gambling if you’re so inclined). Please be sure to reach out to us via twitter if you have any questions or comments. Hopefully, we’ll see you back here next week with wins under your belts.
Originally published at dynastyfootballfactory.com on September 14, 2017.