13 Ghost Henleys Planned
Oxfordshire’s leaders — businessmen, landowners and our beleagured councils — have signed a ‘deal’ with the Government to build 6500 homes every year in Oxfordshire for 13 years. That’s 17 towns the size of Henley; more than one a year (4 Henley’s every 3 years).
As population growth in Oxfordshire, indeed in England and the UK, is slowing, there will not be enough households to fill these homes. They must instead be bought as ‘buy-to-leave’ by investors, creating 13 ghost towns the size of Henley in what was our rural county. One a year.
The population growth needed to fill the planned homes is astronomically higher than the likely growth according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Oxfordshire’s aspirations continue for house-building at the same rate out to 2040, followed by a share of a million houses to be built along a massive road out to Cambridge (we’ve assumed Oxfordshire is the lucky recipient of a fifth of these houses).
Currently, the ‘market absorption’ is missing. For the past 7 years, developers were supposed to build 5000 homes a year to meet housing targets. Instead, they have exactly matched population growth, with 2100 homes per year.
It is said that we must have 100,000 homes in Oxfordshire to produce economic growth for the UK, as its highest priority county, to support 85,000 jobs. (This all in a timeframe of 20 years from 2011). Remarkably, we have achieved the goal of job delivery (40,000 new jobs) in just 7 years. But on the back of only 15,000 homes.
ONS population projections show we need only 33,000 new homes over the 20 year period, of which we have built half. Half the jobs, half the homes; good progress then towards are 2031 economic objectives.
But what of the 67,000 homes that are to be built in excess of our ability to fill them (13 Henleys)? The costly process of building them will certainly add to our GDP as the money goes round and round.
But the homes cannot be filled, and therefore, necessarily, they are ‘buy-to-leave’ or second, third, fourth homes. Doubtless the government, and Oxfordshire’s leaders, are aware of this. And this will all be economic growth in terms of houses swapping hands (unless and until there is a housing crash).
All worthy aims for economic growth in terms of house building for its own sake, but let us not kid ourselves that these homes are to house residents, current or new, in Oxfordshire.