Chris, Appreciate your valuable crypto thought leadership on so many platforms. Two thoughts: 1) I’m wondering if there’s enough data yet for anyone to have mapped this curve against many crypto assets besides Bitcoin to see how often it holds true. 2) Unlike traditional venture backed equities that seek to create barriers to competition, open / public crypto assets allow (almost encourage) anyone to “Hijack the J-Curve” of promising crypto assets by copying, or in the case of some protocols forking, the code. So I’m wondering how you see that affecting the predictability of the J-curve/S-curve in the future. It seems that a different core team with a different vision / set of resources might better apply the tech at any point along the curve to any given market/segment, and impact the development / sustainability of the original curve. (Impact would also vary based on things like timing of the fork along the original J-Curve, and whether the management team forked as well — As C McGregror would say “Forking Management”!) This appears to be what folks were waiting to see with regard to Bitcoin Cash. Side note: This copy-ability also may account for some of the valuation hysteria around ICO’s. Traditionally a VC seed round is used to fund development from a standing start, whereas an ICO could be based upon a public crypto asset that has already undergone significant development. Because the code is “bought” for free, it has an accounting value of zero, but a higher economic or utility value on day one. So, even if ICO’s are early stage funding, it would seem that many case by case factors determine how any ICO equates to stages of a traditional VC round.
