IS CORBYN ELECTABLE? (YES)

Someone on my local Labour FaceBook Group commented that they liked Corbyn but worried about the recent opinion polls. I was thinking of writing an article on Corbyn’s electability anyway, so instead here is my lengthy reply to that comment:

Yes a Corbyn led Labour can win if we concentrate on attacking the Tories, and if we do so I actually think they will be pretty easy game. They are having to deal with massive fiscal crisis, which as far as they are concerned they can only tackle by use of austerity. This is making them more and more unpopular, making them look more and more nasty and making them look weak when they keep U-Turning. I also think that on a cultural level Britain is turning against the Tories, just as it did in the early/mid 1990s. Quite literally they are going out of fashion. Yes, they are ahead in the polls now, thanks to May’s bounce and Labour splits but medium and long term their brand is becoming toxic again.

There is no reason why Corbyn’s programme and values would be inherently unpopular and it is a fact that the polls only took a disastrous turn after the coup (although the most recent YouGov poll puts Labour 7% behind, not 16)

I think Corbyn’s personal ratings would improve following Election Hustings with May, where he will give sensible, straight answers based around Tory hypocrisy, and people will see him as a kindly Uncle figure. He will also have a loyal following at those hustings who will cheer and make him look popular to the rest of the country.

Also, I know the Right of the Party pretend to turn their nose up at social media, but actually it is becoming increasingly important. More and more people use it to get their information and communicate, and it is in any case kind of merging with older forms of media such as TV (for example I watched both leadership hustings live on my phone). And contrary to what a lot of people claim it is not just people talking to other people who agree with them — there is a lot of cross-communication between people with different views and interests (for example if I connect with someone through my interest in history or through work, they then get subjected to my political ramblings as well)

Anyway, my point is that in the Social Media arena, a Corbyn led Labour would absolutely destroy the Tories at election time.

Looking at solid figures, Labour has won 4 Parliamentary by-elections since Corbyn became leader. Smith’s supporters point out that these were safe Labour seats. What they don’t point out was that Labour increased its share of the vote in 3 of these by-elections, by 6, 7 and 9% (in the 4th there was a 0.3% drop). Now, if Corbyn was such electoral poison, surely we would see a big drop in those percentages, safe seat or not. But we actually saw significant increases. Anti-Corbs also like to claim that these results were down to “good local candidates”. Are they suggesting Labour usually DOESN’T field good candidates?

There have also been a number of Council By-Elections (since the coup) where Labour have recorded big (10%+) swings from UKIP (Wisbech, SE Holderness, Silverdale, Honiton) the Greens (Brighton, Hackney) and the Conservatives (Southcote Reading)

There are a number of other factors that anti-Corbynites pretend to turn their noses up at, but are actually quite significant:

Firstly, the Greens. They got 1.1 million votes (3.5%) in 2015. I am willing to bet that some two thirds of those come from left wing Labour voters alienated by Labour’s obsessive Centrism since Blair. Certainly I voted for them in 2015 for that reason. So that’s 600,000 votes (2% ) we might look for from that quarter, a very significant amount in a modern general election (although personally I would favour a pact with the Greens rather than fighting them)

Secondly, non-voters.

Election Turnouts since 1997 have been:
1997: 71%
2001: 59%
2005: 61%
2010: 65.1%
2015: 66.1%

It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that this drop was linked to Blair and the fact that left wing Labour voters just lost interest in politics while he was at the helm. Some came back for Brown and Miliband but not all. Such people would come back for Corbyn (indeed many will like me actually have joined the Party).

In addition to such people there will also be a more hardcore group of non-voters who just think “Meh, politicians are all the same”. Here also we might make some headway thanks to Corbyn.

Thirdly, we will take a few votes from the Liberal Democrats, who tend to get some left wing support on the basis of social liberalism, free-thought, devolution of power, open government etc, all of whom might be attracted by a Corbyn style Labour Party.

Fourthly, we will take back maybe 30,000 votes from other Left Wing Parties who have benefited from Labour’s move to the right over the last 20 years.

Fifth, we have Corbyn’s Mass Membership. Bizarre of his opponents to claim that this is some weird anomaly that has no relation to what is going on in the rest of the country, namely people being squeezed by inequalities in wealth and power. More practically the mass membership provides campaign funds, campaign assistance and talk to their friends, family and neighbours.

As to Smith’s electability, in the debate last night he openly advocated ignoring the popular will as expressed in a referendum result. Nothing is likely to turn off voters more. Nothing will more re-inforce the impression of politicians as an arrogant, out of touch elite. That certainly WOULD lose us votes to UKIP. In fact, if you make the working class feel disenfranchised like that, you risk driving them into the arms of worse than UKIP.

Speaking of UKIP, I think we will poach a few votes from that quarter. Some people vote for them simply because they don’t like the establishment/mainstream fake politicians. Here again Corbyn answers that need. I know from message boards that some ‘Kippers respect him, or can be persuaded to if you couch your arguments in anti-establishment terms.

But, yes, regardless of all that, we do have a proper fight on our hands to win an election, highly possible but we will have to work for it. So be it. I got active in politics to fight to change the country for the better, not to chase easy votes like some marketing company. I don’t support Labour in the same way that I support a football team. I don’t just want to be celebrating because “my team won the cup”. People’s lives won’t magically improve, as the Labour Right seem to believe, the moment a Labour Prime Minister walks into Number 10. It depends what policies are enacted, and I’m sorry I don’t think Smith or his corporate sponsored backers will in reality deliver policies that are going to help working people at the risk of offending their employers.

What we should be doing is coming up with a proper Labour programme and then arguing the case for it. Might succeed, might not. When the time is right it will succeed.

My objection to the Tories is based on their policies, not tribal considerations.

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