Trump’s Vietnam Tariff Targets Sneaker Giants
How a Proposed 46% Levy Threatens Nike, Adidas, Lululemon, and On’s Manufacturing Hub and Could Hit Consumer Wallets
Let’s dive straight into the chaos Donald Trump just unleashed. He’s announced a jaw-dropping 46% tariff on imports from Vietnam, and it’s hitting some of the biggest names in sportswear right where it hurts — Nike, Adidas, Lululemon, On, and a slew of others who’ve been banking on Vietnam as their manufacturing golden goose. This isn’t a gentle tap on the shoulder; it’s a full-on wrecking ball to their supply chains. So, what’s the deal, and how’s this going to play out for these brands — and, yeah, for our bank accounts?
Why Vietnam, you ask? It’s been the hot spot for companies dodging the trade war fallout from Trump’s first term, when he slapped tariffs on China and sent everyone running. Vietnam swooped in with low labor costs, a skilled workforce, and solid infrastructure. The numbers back it up: the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association says the country exported $44 billion in textiles in 2024, with the U.S. as its top buyer. Footwear’s a massive piece of that pie — nearly a third of U.S. footwear imports came from Vietnam in 2023, according to the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America. Nike’s got 50% of its shoes and 28% of its apparel tied up there, per their latest filings. Adidas is at 27% of its total volume, up from 26% in 2023. Lululemon’s sourcing 42% of its gear from Vietnam, and On Holdings? A staggering 90% of their sneakers. Vietnam’s basically the sneaker kingpin these days.
Now, Trump’s dropping this tariff bomb — set to start April 9, 2025 — and it’s got everyone in a panic. He’s calling it “reciprocal,” pointing to Vietnam’s 90% tariffs on U.S. goods and its $123.5 billion trade surplus with us in 2024, per U.S. Census Bureau data. His plan? Smack ’em hard, push companies to bring jobs back home. Sure, it’s a bold pitch, but here’s the rub: moving supply chains isn’t like flipping a switch. It takes years — factories need specialized skills, and the U.S. isn’t exactly primed to pump out high-tech kicks overnight. Analysts like Brian Jacobsen from Annex Wealth Management say this isn’t a fast fix.
The fallout’s already brutal. Nike’s stock tanked nearly 12% on April 3rd after the news, hitting a 2017 low. Adidas dropped 10%, Lululemon’s down 13%, and On Holdings took a 17% nosedive. Why? Vietnam’s not a side hustle for these brands — it’s their backbone. Nike’s CFO Matt Friend was already warning of a double-digit sales dip this quarter before this hit. Add a 46% cost spike on half their shoes, and they’re either eating losses or hiking prices. ING analysts figure this could cut 4% off Nike’s and On’s gross margins and 2% off Adidas’s. That’s not pocket change.
Will they pass it on to us? You bet. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Poonam Goyal predicts price hikes because “shifting supply chains isn’t viable” for performance gear. An Air Jordan 1 at $160 could climb to $175 or higher. Lululemon’s $98 leggings? Sayonara to that deal. But here’s my gripe: these companies are swimming in cash — Nike pulled in $51.2 billion in 2024, Adidas $23.5 billion — can’t they absorb some of this? Or are they just gonna blame tariffs and gouge us anyway?
There’s a glimmer of hope, though. Trump posted on April 4th about a “productive call” with Vietnam’s leader To Lam, hinting they might drop their tariffs to zero and dodge this mess. Stocks reacted — Nike jumped 5.9%, Lululemon gained 4%. Maybe Vietnam’s playing smart, like T. Rowe Price’s Johannes Loefstrand suggests, with promises of U.S. imports and Starlink deals. But until it’s a done deal, the uncertainty’s a killer.
Here’s my two cents: Trump’s swinging for the fences, but this could blow up in his face. Higher prices might crush demand — Lululemon’s CEO already flagged slower U.S. traffic from inflation jitters. And if production does come back to the U.S., labor costs here could drive prices up even more. I’m just hoping my next pair of Nikes doesn’t cost an arm and a leg. This one’s far from over — keep your eyes peeled.
Eric Mitchell is a sports writer and analyst that appears regularly on national TV, renowned for his snarky, sharp takes on the games you love. Connect with him on Twitter at @ericlmitchell for more unfiltered sports commentary!
