Will the Top 5 Spenders in Free Agency Surpass Their Projected Win Totals?
$3,800,000,000. This number represents the amount of money that teams have guaranteed to players in free agency heading into the 2023 season. The top five spenders this year are the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, and Chicago Cubs.
In 2022, the top five spenders were the Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, and Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets, Phillies, and Dodgers went over their projected win total; while the Mets and Dodgers both won 10+ more games than projected it took the Phillies until game 162 to cash their over.
New York Yankees
Money Spent $573.5 Million | 2023 Proj. Win Total: 94.5 | 2022 Win Total: 99 | 2023 Prediction: UNDER
Even though the Yankees spent the most money in free agency, they only signed four players, spending $522 million between Aaron Judge and Carlos Rodón. They also re-signed first baseman Anthony Rizzo and brought back RHP Tommy Kahnle.
The Yankees have three big question marks on offense heading into the season: who will be starting at shortstop, left field, and third base. According to GM Brian Cashman the shortstop competition is between Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Oswald Peraza, and even Anthony Volpe while Aaron Hicks is currently at the forefront over Oswaldo Cabrera to be the starting left fielder. There is also the question of who will be the everyday third basemen, DJ LeMahieu or Josh Donaldson, and how healthy LeMahieu’s foot even is.
This year’s spring training will hope to answer these questions for the Bronx Bombers. I believe the Yankees will win just under 95 games partially due to the unknown factors of the offense. As it currently stands the offense will be worse than 2022, Aaron Judge will not replicate his historical 2022 season and no other moves were made to improve the offense.
The only way I see this team winning more than 95 games is if the starting pitchers stay healthy and one of Peraza or Cabrera are instant impact players.
New York Mets
Money Spent: $498.2 Million | 2023 Proj. Win Total: 94.5 | 2022 Win Total: 101 | 2023 Prediction: OVER
The Mets are coming off a 101-win season and had the most active offseason in the league. Even with the departures of Jacob DeGrom (who only made 11 starts in 2022), Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker in free agency the Mets still improved their starting rotation by signing Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and José Quintana. They re-signed Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, and bolstered their bullpen by signing David Robertson.
The Mets had a top five offense last year and it will mostly look the same in 2023 with the only major change being at catcher. The Mets traded away James McCann and signed left-handed Omar Narváez who will split time with Tomás Nido, allowing their #1 prospect, Francisco Álvarez, to develop a bit more in Triple A.
It would not surprise me one bit if the Mets run-back another 100+ win season. Truthfully, it would be more surprising if they didn’t.
Philadelphia Phillies
Money Spent: $399 Million | 2023 Proj. Win Total: 88.5 | 2022 Win Total: 87 | 2023 Prediction: UNDER
The Phillies went out and signed exactly who they needed this offseason, shortstop Trea Turner. Turner brings a high-contact bat with very solid power, excellent speed, and great defense to this Phillies roster. He finished 8th in stolen bases while posting a 90% success rate in 2022. He’ll be the new leadoff hitter, shifting slugger Kyle Schwarber to the 2-hole.
They also bolstered the starting rotation by bringing in Taijuan Walker who will be the number three starter, sliding Ranger Suárez down to four. The sole reason I’m taking the under on the Phillies is because the heart and soul of this team, Bryce Harper, is expected to miss the entire first half of the season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. It is important to note that Philly did win 87 games with Harper only playing 99 games last year.
As Opening Day is still two months away there very well could be a revised timeline on Harper’s return which would certainly call for a revision to my prediction.
San Diego Padres
Money Spent: $354 Million | 2023 Proj. Win Total: 92.5 | 2022 Win Total: 89 | 2023 Prediction: OVER
The Padres had a very active offseason, they signed SS Xander Bogarts to an 11-year $280 million deal and added solid depth options in Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter.
The Padres will also get their young star, Fernando Tatis Jr., back in late April after he serves the remaining 20 games of his suspension for PED use. It is also important to note that Juan Soto will have his first full season in a Padres uniform.
It would be of no surprise if this Padres team wins closer to 100 games than 90 with this star-studded offense and well-above average pitching.
Chicago Cubs
Money Spent: $305.5 Million | 2023 Proj. Win Total: 77.5 | 2022 Win Total: 74 | 2023 Prediction: OVER
The Cubs were only four wins shy last year of surpassing their 2023 projected win total. The additions of Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Eric Hosmer, and Trey Mancini are instant upgrades.
Swanson will bring his Gold Glove Award winning defense and impressive offensive skill set. Taillon will slot in behind Marcus Stroman in the rotation and should endure greater success pitching in a weaker NL Central compared to the AL East.
Hosmer will provide stability at first base which the Cubs have struggled with mightily since trading away Anthony Rizzo in August of 2021. The Cubs also signed Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal with the hopes to revive some of the 2017–2019 version of him. These new additions should be enough to put the Cubs close to the 80-win mark.
The 2023 season is certainly going to be exciting between seeing star players on new teams, the pitch clock, no more shifts, and every team playing against each other. The first games of spring training start on the 24th, we’re almost there everyone!
I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on each team heading into 2023 in the comments below and if you agree/disagree with my predictions. Please feel free to reach out anytime and connect with me on LinkedIn.
