Gold-Price Analysis
Analyzed the Gold Price using SQL and PowerBI to derive insights.
I am a Geologist by profession and currently working in the mining industry in my country. I an familiar with Solid minerals especially Gold.
Gold is a precious metal, and a major financial asset for countries and central banks. It is also used by the banks as a way to hedge against loans made to their government and as an indicator of economic health. Under a free-market system, gold should be viewed as a currency like the euro, yen, or U.S. dollar. To know more about gold check here.
Dataset:
The dataset was downloaded from Kaggle. It contains two excel sheets ;
- Annual_gold rate : Contains columns year and Currencies
USD: The USD (United States dollar) is the official currency of the United States of America.
GBP: GBP is the abbreviation for the British pound sterling, the official currency of the United Kingdom,
EURO: The euro is the official currency of 19 member nations of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), or EU, which is comprised of 27 member nations.
AED: The United Arab Emirates dirham (AED) is the currency of the United Arab Emirates.
INR: The Indian rupee (symbol: ₹; code: INR) is the official currency of India.
CNY: CNY is the official currency of the People’s Republic of China and one of the world’s
- Daily_gold rate : Contains the same column types as the Yearly_gold rate
Tools Used:
Tools used for Analysis
- Microsoft Excel: Used to get hold and understand the data we are dealing with and the parameters.
- Microsoft SQL Server : For further analysis I used MSSQL.
- Powerbi: Used this tool for Visualization.
Data Preparation:
Here we will process data cleaning and ensuring that the correct relevant, complete and free of error and outlier when performing analysis:
- Explore and observe data
- Check for and treat missing values
- Transform data-format types types
- I deleted dates after 31/12/2021.
- Assigned each currency to their specific symbols.
Further analysis took place in MSSQL.
Check out my SQL code here
Analysis Part
- Created a Summary page which includes insight into the Currencies by Yearly Rate and Currencies by Average Daily rate and a Navigation page to show insights into the various currencies.
Summary Page :
The total number of years were 43, with 6 currencies, for all the currencies there was steady rise and less falls from 1978, in 2012–2015 there was a sharp fall in gold price, but from 2016, there is a steady rise in price. The fall in price in 2012 could be attributed , to the World Bank tightening its monetary policy in that period.
Navigation Page:
USD
The insight into gold price in Dollars, shows the decline in gold price in 2013–2015 and the forecast price for the next 5 years. The month of November had the highest daily average price. Tuesday had the minimum daily rate while Thursday had the highest maximum daily rate. There was a constant decrease in price from 1997–2000. 2013 had the highest decrease with a 258 dollar difference compared to the other years. 2020 had the highest increase in the history of USD with an incrseae in price by 377 dollars, which could be attributed to the covid-19 effect, where people bought gold as a means of storing wealth.
GBP
The insight into gold price in Pounds, shows the decline in gold price in 2013–2015 and the yearly forecast price for the next 5 years. The month of November had the highest daily average price. Tuesday had the minimum daily rate while Thursday had the highest maximum daily rate. There was a constant decrease in price from 1988–1992. 2013 had the highest decrease with a 148 pounds difference compared to the other years. 2020 had the highest increase in the history of Pounds with an increase in price by 286 pounds, which could be attributed to the covid-19 effect, where people bought gold as a means of storing wealth. A decrease by 71 pounds in price occurred in 2021 as a result of the increased inflation rate .
EURO
The insight into gold price in Euro, shows the decline in gold price in 2013–2015 and the yearly forecast price for the next 5 years. The month of November had the highest daily average price. Tuesday had the minimum daily rate while Thursday had the highest maximum daily rate. There was a constant decrease in price from 1988–1992. 2013 had the highest decrease with a 235 euro difference compared to the other years. 2020 had the highest increase in the history of Euro with an increase in price by 304 euro, which could be attributed to the covid-19 effect, where people bought gold as a means of storing wealth. A decrease by 28 euro in price occurred in 2021as a result of the increased inflation rate .
INR
The insight into gold price in Indian Rupees, shows the decline in gold price in 2013–2015 and the yearly forecast price for the next 5 years. The month of November had the highest daily average price. Tuesday had the minimum daily rate while Thursday had the highest maximum daily rate. 2013 had the highest decrease with a 6841 rupees difference compared to the other years. 2020 had the highest increase in the history of Indian rupees with an increase in price by 33092 rupees , which could be attributed to the covid-19 effect, where people bought gold as a means of storing wealth.
AED
The insight into gold price in Dirhams, shows the decline in gold price in 2013–2015 and the yearly forecast price for the next 5 years. The month of November had the highest daily average price. Tuesday had the minimum daily rate while Thursday had the highest maximum daily rate. There was a constant decrease in price frim 1997- 2001. 2013 had the highest decrease with a 947 Dirhams difference compared to the other years. 2020 had the highest increase in the history of Dirhams with an increase in price by 1385 rupees , which could be attributed to the covid-19 effect, where people bought gold as a means of storing wealth.
CNY
The insight into gold price in Chinese Yuan, shows the decline in gold price in 2013–2015 and the yearly forecast price for the next 5 years. The month of November had the highest daily average price. Tuesday had the minimum daily rate while Thursday had the highest maximum daily rate. There was a constant decrease in price frim 1997- 1999. 2013 had the highest decrease with a 1846 Yuan difference compared to the other years. 2020 had the highest increase in the history of Yuan with an increase in price by 2571 Yuan, which could be attributed to the covid-19 effect, where people bought gold as a means of storing wealth. There was a decrease in price gold price by 604 Yuan compared to the previous.
Conclusion:
In the year 1980 and 2020 for both USD, GBP,AED,INR and Euro, there was a rapid increase in Gold price, which could be attributed to the Afghanistan dispute with the Soviet Union and the Covid19- effect for the latter. It can be said that in times of great uncertainty and conflict, as of today ( 3–31–2022) the price of gold has increased in all the six currencies due to the Russian -Ukraine war. Gold has always been considered to be a safe heaven in investment. That is because precious metals like gold are timeless and have the ability to retain value across centuries.