Swansea City Summer 2022 Recruitment Plan
This piece will consist of an in depth review of Swansea City in the 2021/22 season with a detailed, player by player data breakdown of the full squad and the depth heading into the 2022 transfer window. An overview in terms of playing personnel through a squad depth chart, finances and individual data breakdown will concur. The scenarios and permutations of what might happen will be described followed by an in depth, position by position analytical driven approach of potential targets, with over 80 players identified in total. The document will conclude with an updated multi-scenario, forecasted squad depth chart alongside the rough finances involved.
Team Style of Play:
Swansea obviously stand out as the main possession based side in the division and are amongst the more pressing sides out of possession. Off this basis, any players targeted require the obvious technical capabilities to play in a high possession system and be comfortable to receive the ball in uncomfortable areas. Technical capabilities alone will not suffice, off ball skills such as having a well rounded athletic and physical profile will be required and is something Martin has spoke about openly, bringing in more durable athletes:
“This team is going to look very different physically next season. The physical profile of our players — the ones we currently have, whoever we bring in — is going to be very different”, Russell Martin.
Current Squad Depth:
Some major issues within the current squad:
- Poor mobility and aerial ability in central defense.
- Wingback options on both sides massively depleted.
- Lack of mobility in midfield, Downes aside.
- Low levels of creativity outside of Paterson.
- Inevitable departures of the likes of Piroe raise concern
Squad Profile: Playing Minutes & Age:
A favorable distribution of minutes age-wise across the 2021/22 season for Swansea. A large proportion of playing time given to players in the ‘ascent’ region, primarily the highest value zone and overall a nice blend of youth and experience used.
Squad Financial Overview:
Another positive to take from Swansea City is the assets they have created through smart recruitment in 2021/22. Several players such as Piroe, Obafemi and Downes as well as Grimes and Cabango who are worth considerable amounts in the Championship, respectively, whilst being on fitting wages within the current structure. Developing lower talent into the top right quadrant is a key cog of any sustainable footballing model. Buy low sell high.
Current Position By Position Analysis:
Goalkeeper:
Andrew Fisher
Value: £750k
Wages: £7k p/w
Contract: 2026
Overview: Signed for £400k from MK Dons in January, Fisher had a mixed start to his Swansea career but put in some top goalkeeping performances to end the season strong. In particular, games vs Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest he prevented what would have been embarrassing scores with a series of fine saves. The data paints a poorer picture of his ability with only a 63% Save Rate and -0.104 Prevented Goals per 90, and I believe following a full preseason combined with his confident ending to the season will prove to be a solid long-term addition to the squad. Brought in primarily for his strong passing capabilities averaging a Short Passing 84.67% completion rate and a Long Passing accuracy of 62.3%, he has been brave in possession and punched numerous attack creating passes so far. His chip vs Coventry being the prime showcase of his ball playing talent so far. Not the most commanding of Goalkeepers and will have to improve on that front, his very low Exit numbers at 1.48 per 90 match visually in which he can be hesitant in claiming crosses and high balls.
Verdict: Keep, full preseason following a strong end to the campaign means he should be primed for a solid 20222/23 campaign but bring in a decent #2 for competition.
Steven Benda
Value: £500k
Wages: £4k p/w
Contract: 2024
Overview: Started the season as Swansea’s number 1 with a number of very mixed performances in a newly transitional Swansea side which coincided with some tricky performances and results. Never seemed fully settled on the ball and was the main reason for being dropped after 5 appearances before a loan spell at Peterborough was cut short through injury. I personally believe Benda should have continued to be the starting goalkeeper until January at least and given time to adapt to Russell’s playing style. An excellent commanding goalkeeper posting 2.05 Exits per 90 as well as a good shot stopper, respectively better than Fisher in my opinion in these particular areas, however obvious flaws in comparison to Fisher in terms of ball playing — a vital cog in Martin’s tactics means it was probably the correct choice to bring in Fisher. Will have a good career elsewhere, that I do not doubt.
Verdict: Reluctantly sell for a decent fee to add to the transfer budget. Consider offers around the £500k mark.
Conclusion: With Ben Hamer being released and Steven Benda seemingly out of favor and available for transfer, a competitive number #2 should be brought in to push Andy Fisher who should be more consistent next term and given full faith as Swansea City’s goalkeeper.
Central Defense:
Kyle Naughton
Value: £-
Wages: £15k p/w
Contract: 2023
Overview: A contender for player of the season, Naughton just seems to age like a fine wine. A key cog in building out from the back while being ridiculously composed is a league leading center back in an array of passing metrics, hardly surprising to any viewers of Swansea this season and the fact they are possession leading in the division. Naughton boasts a Passing accuracy of 91.4% and 8.29 Progressive Passes per 90. While Defensive metrics are low, skewed from the high possession figures. In simple terms: if you have more ball, you engage in defensive duels less. Has primarily played in the center of a back 3. Personally, recruitment depending, if an almost quarter back is brought in I would rather Naughton on either side as opposed to a central figure. Doesn’t have that proper defensive nous I want from my man in middle, that’s not to say he is a bad defender, just the left or right would suit his skillset better and add more defensive solidity in the heart of the defense. Granted this season he has had to being the most comfortable on the ball, he can get dragged out at times. Aerially he is poor given his height, rarely engaging in such but winning 50% of his Aerial Duels.
Verdict: Keep, brilliant servant.
Ben Cabango
Value: £4m-£6m
Wages: £9k p/w
Contract: 2025
Overview: Has adapted very well in recent months to the new playing style after some rather below par performances earlier in the season and seems a lot more confident in possession as was the case when Russell arrived at the club. Ben has played over 100 professional games by the age of 22 which is impressive in itself and is a very solid Championship defender, again the data has to be taken in context. The figures show lowly metrics across his defensive profile but playing in a high possession side along with the exposed lateral center back position he has faced throughout the season provides context for the figures. Under Cooper his excellent defensive capabilities were highlighted more so. Won 55% of his Aerial Duels, and 56% of his Ground Duels. Probably not the best suited system for his profile and mobility questions but his adaptation at just 22 is commendable. Does try progress the ball, averaging 9.6 Progressive Passes and 1.76 Progress Runs per game. Perhaps controversial, but if the right offer came (around the £4m-£6m mark) I would consider selling as a means of one step forward two steps back in squad building through financial constraints.
Verdict: Keep but sell if suitable offer arises.
Ryan Manning
Value: £500k-£750k
Wages: £12k p/w
Contract: 2023
Overview: Arguably one of the standout, most consistent performers of the first half of the season following the bold decision to put a renowned attack minded wingback at left center back. One of the most progressive attacked minded center backs in the division, being left footed added nice balance to Swansea’s defense and Manning put some great performances the first half of the season. His defensive awareness is suspect at times but can be key in starting attacks from the back, attempting 2.15 Dribbles per 90 and surprisingly being one of the most fouled players in the division. Very purposeful with his passing too. However, never really was the same following short successive red cards against Fulham and Blackburn. A rash side of his game became apparent as well as numerous defensive lapses and never recaptured his early season form. In saying that, he is a solid versatile player at championship level and can cover left wingback also.
Verdict: Keep, perhaps offer additional year on contract.
Joel Latibeaudiere
Value: £500k-£750k
Wages: £6k p/w
Contract: 2023
Overview: Initially started at wingback cover before ending the season as the starting LCB, put in some of his best performances in a Swansea shirt. Seems to have a good attitude too and was always intrigued the fact he was captain ahead of Marc Guehi for the England U17s. Decent player overall, a good cover player for me next season but not a staple in the side. Comfortable but not adventurous in possession and quite efficient at carrying the ball out while being adequate defensively. Squad player.
Verdict: Keep.
Ryan Bennett
Value: £-
Wages: £25k p/w
Contract: 2023
Overview: Proof data needs to be taken with context and players actually watched, because the data shows what Ryan Bennett is not. Excellent under Cooper in a deep block, exposed to the highest order under Russell. Will be leaving this summer being on huge wages and hopefully he will find a new side to take on the brunt of his contract but could see a compensation package being agreed between the two clubs. A solid penalty box defender, immobile and below the standard required in possession.
Verdict: Sell
Brandon Cooper
Value: £500k
Wages: £4k p/w
Contract: 2024
Overview: Started the season at Swansea before a solid loan spell at Swindon before injury struck. Thought he would have got a League 1 loan following his excellent loan spell at Newport County last season where he dominated defensive and possession metrics. Perhaps didn’t quite reach the same standards but still presents a solid spell overall. A better defender than the underlying numbers suggest. At just 22 and possessing some key ball playing and defensive abilities, long term I could definitely see Cooper seriously competing for a central role in the back 3, but perhaps too soon for him at the moment.
Verdict: Ideally, a League 1 Loan. Suitable teams: Footballing sides such as MK Dons, Plymouth, Lincoln, Portsmouth, Oxford, Forest Green Rovers.
Conclusion: Bennett will depart the club, saving £1.3m estimated in wages whilst I would look to loan out and continue Brandon Coopers development in League 1. Finley Burns has failed to cement any form of place in the 18-man squad so it can be concluded he will return to Manchester City. Off the basis of this scenario, one new center back addition will be required alongside two starters Naughton and Cabango with Manning and Latibeaudiere providing competition. Although, I am not too sure on the prospect of all four remaining at the club as 4/5 of Swansea’s main options in central defense, it is not the most balanced or complementary collective as required. Cabango is a saleable asset and the most expendable in that regard. Should he potentially be sold, an additional center back will be required. Obviously, a sale will widen the target market and options available. A fee in the region of £4m-£6m for Ben, who has had suitors in the Premier League — West Ham, and Leeds, whilst relegated sides Burnley, Watford and Norwich could watch on — not to mention previous Bundesliga interest. Although is injured until July. The center back department very much dependent on this unfolding scenario, but regardless one is needed. The current options lack athleticism and defensive/aerial stability as a group.
Right Wing Back
Jordan Garrick:
Value: £250k
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2023 + Option of an additional year
Overview: Played most of his football at striker for Plymouth but the only current player who could be considered a RWB. Having burst onto the scene from a cameo substitute vs QPR in August 2019, it seemed Swansea had an exciting prospect emerging through the fleeced academy but it has not worked out for a number of reasons. Still a talent and has done quite well at Plymouth in a variety of roles ranging from striker to both wingback slots. Possess frightening pace and direct running as well as a good work ethic. Ranks with the best in League 1 strikers for defensive duels (6.48 Defensive Duels p/90) and dribbles (5.24 Dribble attempts p/90) , of which will be skewed given his range of positions this season. Dangerous player at the level and a return to Plymouth on a permanent seems likely. Would not be surprised to see him return to championship level in the future.
Verdict: Sell
Overview: As of the 1st of July, there will be no players at the club equipped to function as a right wing back, other than at a push, Jordan Garrick. Cyrus Christie was a solid Championship wingback for Swansea but his return is far from certain. Even with his potential return, over a full season, competition will be needed. Two recruits required.
Left Wing Back
Nathanael Ogbeta
Value: £500k
Wages: £6k p/w
Contract: 2024
Overview: Actually, recommended Swansea to sign him as a Bidwell replacement, which they did for £300k from Shrewsbury, but since signing whilst being injured, has barely featured since returning fit. Really liked him at Shrewsbury, was a good ball progressor and a high-volume crosser. Carried the ball 2.03 times per game but creativity was just 0.07XA p/90, in a below par Shrewsbury side. Quite leggy in his movement but he was a joy to watch gliding down the Shrewsbury left sided and could go inside or outside. Even featured on the NTT’s 20 before 20. Is still young but would have liked to see him get some minutes in the tail end of this season and hep bed him in for next. Hopefully Wolf returns or another similar left wingback joins and Ogbeta competes for the left wing back slot, while Wolf’s versatility would ensure sufficient playing time on the whole. However, it appears he may not be in Russell Martins plans, one I would keep but could see leave.
Verdict: Keep, but lack of inclusion since arrival is concerning so perhaps a sale will occur.
Conclusion: Hannes Wolf operated well in an unfamiliar position in 2021/22 and would definitely look into sealing a year long loan deal with Borussia Monchengladbach. However, like Christie its by no means a guarantee and even more unlikely in this case so a list of a similar profile of player should be assessed if a return does not materialize. Nathanael Ogbeta is yet to feature in any form of prominent role under Russell Martin since signing in January but is a good prospect who holds some key raw attributes suited to the system having an athletic profile along with a progressive ball carrier and a prolific crosser. However, his lack of minutes since joining is concerning, and I could potentially see him depart. One scenario is resigning Hannes Wolf to operate in both LWB and AM roles with Ogbeta as a competent, long-term understudy and depth provider. Manning can cover at LWB too. A starter required and Ogbeta situation to be monitored.
Central Midfield:
Matt Grimes
Value: £4m-£5m
Wages: £17k p/w
Contract: 2025
Overview: Signing a contract extension until 2025 was huge, genuinely thought he would leave for £1m in January or run his contract down. Been amongst the highest and most consistent performing players in the championship since 2018 and would be capable of the step up. Playing slightly more advanced this season and having Downes alongside him means he has less of a responsibility than before in engaging in defensive duels, in previous seasons has ranked very highly under defensive metrics, while still winning his challenges to reasonable success this campaign, clocking at a 60.36% win rate of his 4.78 Defensive Duels per 90. Exceptional at progressing the ball from midfield- averaging 12 Passes to the Final 1/3 and 8.7 Progressive Passes respectively. Has attempted the most passes in the league this season at 98.5 per 90 with a fantastic success rate of 91.1%. Could possibly get some interest elsewhere but suspect he’ll be leading the side out next season.
Verdict: Keep
Flynn Downes
Value: £8m-£10m
Wages: £10k p/w
Contract: 2025
Overview: An absolutely unbelievable signing by the club for £1.5m from Ipswich, the championship Declan Rice. Great athlete and technician along with possessing that key Progressive Ball Carrying drive (2.04 attempts a game), defensive machine hybrid in which is becoming very desirable in modern football defensive midfielders. Is amongst the very best in the Championship in terms of possession adjusted interceptions, which will take into account Swansea’s high possession count as a means of defensive performance, with 8.21 PADJ. Interceptions per 90. Is aggressive in his challenges, winning a respectable 59.71% of the 6.63 Defensive Duels attempted per 90. His profile means he’ll be on Premier League sides radars for sure, and probably has the highest ceiling of any Championship central midfielders given his blend of athleticism/physicality and technical ability, being one of the most accurate passers in the 92, completing an astounding 94% of his 70 attempted Short Passes per game. Doesn’t just pass safely either, in the top 15% for forward passes again impressively completing 85.63% of 16.12 Forward Passes. Would try keep at all costs for another season, vital player.
Verdict: Keep, will be interest in his services.
Jay Fulton
Value: £250k
Wages: £9k p/w
Contract: 2024
Overview: Terrific servant at the club who deserves to be playing Championship football regularly, just maybe not at Swansea City. Was excellent last season under Cooper especially defensively, breaking up play and laying it off and is a surprisingly skillful dribbler. Probably doesn’t quite have either the athletic or technical profile required to be considered in this current Russell Martin system. Hopefully Swansea can get a nominal transfer fee and his wages off the book, would still do a solid job at a Blackpool, Wigan or Millwall.
Verdict: Sell
Liam Walsh
Value: £250k
Wages: £7k p/w
Contract: 2024
Overview: A hugely frustrating campaign for Liam Walsh whose fitness and injury woes continue to hinder his undoubted technical class for those who saw him at Coventry. Despite never showing it in a Swansea shirt, Liam Walsh when fit is a superb player — pretty much the complete midfielder for Coventry in 2019–20 in terms of impactful passing, ball carrying, defensively and even scoring a few goals. This version of Liam Walsh is perfect for our system as competition and cover to Downes and Grimes, unfortunately he has yet to even come close to hitting those heights in the past two years and will probably depart this summer, but I could look to maybe keep.
Verdict: I would keep but also be open to Sell/Loan, shame because there is a quality player there.
Conclusion: Grimes and Downes are amongst the highest performing central midfielders in the division, however past that there is cause for concern. Korey Smith will leave the club; Jay Fulton will probably be sold due to not possessing the athletic or technical profile required to be sufficient competition in the engine room. Liam Walsh is capable but major injury and fitness concerns mean he is an unreliable placeholder in the midfield. Injuries aside, Grimes and Downes will both play 40+ and 35+ games next season but there is no real depth or competition once the aforementioned trio leave. Oliver Ntcham could fill in on occasion but not to be relied upon in the double pivot over a season. A new recruit will be required. Not to mention Flynn Downes has attracted Premier League interest and could be sold. Grimes always attracts attention but having signed a new deal and committing himself to the club should be leading the side out next term, but a few similar profiles should be identified in case of a departure. Dan Williams, currently at Dundalk looks a decent longer term prospect but too soon for him as of yet. Similar to the center back scenario, one at least will be required without a sale but Downes departing could very much change the landscape of this one.
Attacking Midfielders
Jamie Paterson
Value: £500k
Wages: £7k p/w
Contract: 2023
Overview: Hard to argue that he has been a brilliant free signing and exceeded all initial expectation. The most creative player at the club running at 0.26XA per 90 and crafting 1.6 key passes a game whilst forging a very fruitful partnership with Piroe. Can go hot and cold in terms of performance but overall, a key attacking force and could be offered an improved two-year contract despite the notable dispute in January. Great technical player who’s output of 9 goals and 9 assists is very impressive and would be tricky to replace, but his contract dispute continues to raise concern about his Swansea City future.
Verdict: Keep, maybe offer improved +1 year on current deal but he could leave.
Olivier Ntcham
Value: £1.5m-£2.5m
Wages: £15k p/w
Contract: 2024
Overview: Largely inconsistent throughout the season, but undoubtedly a very talented player, who could be playing a level above. I would argue his best position lies somewhere between the positions operated by Downes and Grimes and the two attacking midfielders. Having trained on his own last summer without a proper pre-season, has struggled with match sharpness and fitness and I feel following this summer will be a much better, more consistent performer for Swansea. Not even at full throttle, he dominates possession metric showcasing the talent he is, plays some lovely threaded balls between fullback and center back while being a powerful, skilled dribbler attempting 2.74 Progressive Runs a game. Not necessarily been an out and out creator at just 0.09XA per 90 but other key passing metrics such as Passes to the Final Third at 7.55 and 13.46 Forward Passes rank extremely highly against his counterparts. Could attract interest this summer, and would not rule out a sale.
“Next season, with a full pre-season and a year playing in the Championship, I expect him to be a really top player”, Russell Martin.
Verdict: 50:50, keep but sell if good offer arises.
Oliver Cooper
Value: £500k
Wages: £4k p/w
Contract: 2023 + Option of an additional year.
Overview: A hugely dynamic, energy ball of an attacking/central midfielder who is amongst the hardest working and most effective out of possession in the EFL. Cooper attempts 8.76 Defensive Duels per 90 while being successful in 9.29 Defensive Actions per game. In the first half of season with Newport he combined this with creativity of 0.13XA per 90, less than what his actual assist numbers would suggest and great ball carrying numbers at 2.86 Progressive Runs a game. However, through injury faded as the season progressed along with County’s promotion hopes, which is to be expected given it is his first taste of consistent senior football, 2,000+ minutes is a solid return along with the quality he showed. Would probably keep him around for pre-season and after recruits are brought in, look to loan him to a League 1 side and see what he’s looking like for 2023.
One man who is likely to buck the trend is Ollie Cooper who is hugely admired by the current Swansea coaching staff. Ian Mitchelmore; Wales Online.
Verdict: May be needed for depth but in an ideal scenario, a League 1 Loan, suitable teams: Like Brandon Cooper: Possession based sides such as MK Dons, Plymouth, Lincoln, Portsmouth, Oxford and Forest Green Rovers.
Conclusion: Jamie Paterson has been one of the most productive attacking midfielders in the Championship in 2021/22 but his contract dispute in January is a slight cause for concern. His mentality seems to have been amended with regards to the dispute and could be offered a fresh, improved two-year deal. Nothing is guaranteed, however, while likely to sign on, a number of possible replacements should be outlined, while the same can be said for Ntcham, an inconsistent performer who should take his game to the next level in 2022/23 but could be of interest elsewhere. Oliver Cooper performed well at Newport in his early showings but faded after sustaining an injury, a League 1 loan should be the club’s motive for Ollie. Joel Piroe has too been playing some excellent football in the right attacking midfield role but will classify him as a striker in this piece. Clear to see that some work will be required in this department. Should neither of Paterson, Piroe or Ntcham depart a single addition should be targeted. Although with all three subject to potential departures, this could change.
Strikers
Joel Piroe
Value: £15m-£18m
Wages: £12k p/w
Contract: 2024
Overview: Data does not do this man justice. Whoever was behind signing Joel Piroe following a couple of tricky seasons in the Netherlands needs a raise. Unbelievable signing for a unique player at this level at an outlay of £1m. Not sure if a striker of his profile has played in the championship before, finds the corners with ease consistently from range, with only one shot coming inside the six-yard box all season. Far from a poacher, a cultured finisher who has outperformed his XG significantly. (22 Goals from an expected 12) and a 22.68% Conversion Rate. Works hard out of possession too. The underlying number suggest that he will not sustain his level of goals, but I would argue that he will still hit 15 goals at least given his near flawless technique in which he has repeated on a consistent basis. Opting to deploy him in a withdrawn role has proved a masterstroke by Martin and compliments his abilities to drop deep and has allowed the destructive nature of Obafemi to be unleashed. The underlying numbers do no service to the level of player he is and even his link up play, which is very solid if you watch him. Without a doubt will gain serious interest this summer, but nothing below £15m should be considered. Clubs may be wary of his low expected goals of just below 0.30XG per 90 and could watch on to see if he is able to replicate it. Capable of the step up with his skillset and the fact he doesn’t even need good service to score goals, a lot of goals.
Verdict: Would love to keep, but feel given recent comments he will be sold but it has to be on Swansea City’s terms.
Michael Obafemi
Value: £7m-£9m
Wages: £10k p/w
Contract: 2024
Overview: Can safely say, fitness abiding, that Michael Obafemi will score 20+ Championship goals for Swansea next season. Again, another very shrewd piece of business by the club to essentially swap Jamal Lowe for a better, younger option in Obafemi for £1.5m, which could easily turn into a £15m+ sale. Possessing searing pace along with some of the leagues best goal scoring positioning, running at 0.46XG per game, he has been nothing short of a revelation since scoring vs Blackburn. As the season has progressed in the second half his finishing too looks far more refined, ruthless and clinical with the 3rd best in the competition- Converting 26% of his Shots into Goals. His link up play is solid, keeps the ball well as his 82% Passing Accuracy shows, and absolutely terrifies defenders with his pace, whilst facing them up with the ball and in behind. Despite what the numbers say again possession stats will affect this, he works very hard out off the ball and defensively and clearly worked on this behind the scenes. Michael overall is becoming one of the best forwards in the division, who will attract attention elsewhere at this rate and had he replicated his second half season performance in the first, I can guarantee you the likes of RB Leipzig would be watching with a £15m/£20m cheque in their notebook. Could still be interest this summer. Massive credit goes to Russell Martin for getting a tune out of Obafemi and sorting his documented attitude issues behind the scenes in the past.
Verdict: Keep, may get enquiries but his value will increase further.
Kyle Joseph
Value: £750k-£1m
Wages: £4k p/w
Contract: 2025
Overview: Really like Kyle Joseph, watched him in an u23s game vs Sheffield Wednesday recently where he was like Prime Lewandowski in front of goal, scoring 4, something of which he lacked at Cheltenham despite his other impressive metrics, just 0.28XG per 90. Works extremely hard out of possession, winning 57.75% of the 5.05 Defensive Duels on average attempted a game. Has a great frame and physicality for his age and a fairly well rounded game, winning 44.14% of the 7.89 Aerial Duels engaged per 90, combined with decent dribbling ability, 1.36 Dribbles attempted per game. Potent long term signing by the club. Still needs some technical refining before being considered a core squad member and a full season at League 1 next season will be ideal for his development, hopefully gets 35+ games and scores 10/15 goals, then you’ve got a player primed for a bigger role. Good mobile target man, who we beat tough competition for. Joseph is a differential forward profile of player we need, but not quite ready. Although, murmurs he could depart permanently which I would not agree with and would represent naive, short term thinking from the club.
Verdict: League 1 Loan in a footballing based outfit to develop technically and become accustomed to a possession based system, suitable teams: Similarly: possession based sides such as MK Dons, Plymouth, Lincoln, Portsmouth, Oxford and Forest Green Rovers.
Morgan Whittaker
Value: £500k
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2025
Overview: Signed for £700k as a long term prospect and put in some decent performances when called upon. Definitely think there’s a player there, quite a skilled dribbler who loves to get early shots off, 7.86 Dribbles attempted with 0.20XG per 90 this season. Even played as a wingback on occasion for Lincoln. First loan spell often said to be the settler while second the make or breaker. Not sure I would give up on him yet, despite rumors he may depart on a permanent basis. Given the fee Swansea would receive now and what he could be worth after another loan playing wise or financially, a full season at League 1 on loan could be the order of the day yet would still consider offloading permanently this year. Think he can hit low double digits as a winger in the right set up in League 1, we saw what he did vs Plymouth in the cup.
Verdict: Sell, would not be against one more loan, however.
Liam Cullen
Value: £150k-£250k
Wages: £4k p/w
Contract: 2024 + Option of an additional year
Overview: Not worked out for Cullen at Lincoln unfortunately, especially from a goal-scoring point of view with just the one. Link up pay has been quite good & has been used in a withdrawn role Appleton frequently, which would make his underlying possession numbers slightly more favorable given the fact he’d have been getting on the ball more. Had been one of the more creative strikers in League 1 creating an average 0.24XG goal scoring opportunities per game, and like all Swansea League 1 strikers seem to do, works very hard off the ball. Still has 2 years left on his deal, probably not going to make it at Swansea anytime soon but another loan to League 1 and try recoup £200k or so next summer. Has decent technical ability, just lacks the athleticism and physicality. Could forge a career by moving to lower Holland or Belgium.
Verdict: Sell / Loan
Conclusion: Obafemi and Piroe are sure to attract interest from clubs higher in the food chain this summer, Piroe in particular. Kyle Joseph is a good prospect and needs a full season at League 1, as does Morgan Whittaker, although would consider selling the latter due to concerns over fit in the current setup. Liam Cullen is not good enough but should be loaned out in financial interests to perhaps recoup some form of transfer fee next summer or sold. Should Piroe and Obafemi stay at the club, a third differential option should be targeted. Due to the projected interest in the pair, contingency plans in terms of replacements are imperative.
U23 Talent: Swansea’s academy has not been as fruitful in recent years but there are a few who look quite good amongst the ranks. Cameron Congreve (18) an attacking midfielder has looked sharp technically in his limited first team minutes and is clearly someone who is rated highly by Martin given first first team inclusion. Could imagine he will continue his development at Swansea next season. Tivonge Rushesha (19) has unfortunately suffered a repeat of his ACL injury. A versatile player who has played CB, RB, LB and CM he looked primed for a League 2 loan this summer. Having watched him on a couple of occasions this season he showed real confidence on the ball and his leadership and communication skills stood out also. Playing in the middle of a back 3, he could lack height/physicality but exposure to League 2 in a footballing side would have been ideal for him, shame. Lincoln McFayden (20) was the most impressive u23s player in the Sheffield Wednesday and QPR games. Very quick and direct who excites on the ball and can play either wing in a front 3 or as a wingback. Can go inside or outside with his direct dribbling and played numerous teasing balls. A League 2 loan or even lower League 1 should be next in Lincoln’s development, ideally in a side that plays wingbacks so he can transition into Swansea’s set up. Azeem Abdulai (19) was another impressive U23 player. Can play both CDM in front of the backline and at CB. Looks good physically and mobility wise given his age and composed on the ball whilst making one or two eye catching driving runs with the ball. Teams like Swindon Town, Newport County, Rochdale, Leyton Orient and Crewe Alexandra are suitable candidates to look at taking both Mcfayden and Abdulai on season long loans.
Transfer Overview:
Off the basis as described above, there are a number of different permutations and scenarios which could unfold this summer. All of which will affect financial power in terms of the players targeted. Given the fact the club lost £4.3m during the most recent published accounts and Russell Martins recent comments, it would be naïve to think that there isn’t a high possibility of at least one major sale. As a result, I have concluded the potential scenario off which the bulk of the transfer plan will be based off:
Scenario: Joel Piroe Sale for £15m-£18m, transfer budget £4m-£6m
Additional Potential Sales:
- Ben Cabango Sale for £4m-£6m, transfer budget increase of £1m-£2m.
- Flynn Downes Sale for £8m-£10m, transfer budget increase of £2m-£4m.
- Michael Obafemi Sale for £7m-£9m, transfer budget increase of £2m-£3m.
- Matt Grimes Sale for £4m-£5m, transfer budget increase of £1m-£2m.
-Plans include obvious departures of Benda, Bennett, Cullen etc.
- What happens and who will be sold depends on the size of the financial hole required to fill or deemed appropriate for this season at least by Swansea City’s owners. £5m?, £10m?, more?
- Most of the business will be based off a Joel Piroe sale alongside others and a roughly £5m base transfer budget as a result. Any further sales will add to this.
- Early sales will be key to freeing up funds and securing top targets, options further down shortlists will have to be considered with late sales.
“The ideal scenario is we don’t need to sell anyone and we can keep growing together, but I can’t lie to you, you’ve seen it in the accounts, we’ll have to sell someone, or a number of people to get to the financial figure the owners want”, Russell Martin, on the need for Swansea City to sell.
These are just rough estimates and gauges of what may or may not happen and I am not fully aware of the requirement for a big sale and what amount will be reinvested or if any level of hedging will occur in terms of delaying major sales by a year to give promotion this season a greater chance. However, it seems most likely that it will be required. Confidence can be taken from the clubs’ dealings and expenditure in the 2021/22 season, with Connor Roberts £2.5m and Jamal Lowe £1.5m being the only sales of note and players such as Obafemi £1.5m, Downes £1.5m and Piroe £1.5m being brought in. According to transfermarkt, £5m was brought in through player sales, while £6.5m was spent. However, as ‘Priceoffootball’ on twitter noted, in the most recent accounts the club would have lost £20m if player sales had not occurred, although COVID-19 and high wages would have affected this. It could be hoped that some form of low-risk gamble can occur this summer, with potentially Downes, Piroe and Obafemi all being sold next summer, should this season’s promotion objectives fail, instead to fill any financial gaps. However, I feel the most likely scenario is selling Joel Piroe for £15m and reinvesting 30–35% of the fee in the playing squad and the rest being used to plug financial gaps.
Given the range of financial playing power the club could have this summer, a shortlist of players with ranging values will be profiled to cover a few bases and provide a level of flexibility depending on outgoings and preferability’s with how any fee’s are going to be distributed. With the potentially strict budgetary constraints, targets from England, Scotland, Germany, Holland, France, Belgium, Turkey, Austria, Spain, Russia and Italy will be profiled. Each positional profile will consist of 3–8 players, while contingency replacements will be drawn up for potential departing players. A free/loan option will be included in most criteria’s in the case of 0 large sales, meaning almost a £0 budget.
Goalkeeper
Overview: A back-up goalkeeper to Andrew Fisher. Pretty basic, Championship number twos are notoriously poor and often come at small financial outlay, Fisher will be number one for the 2022/23 campaign but given departures, suitable competition is imperative.
Criteria: Comfortable in possession and playing passes under pressure, ideally with a history of playing in similar playing styles. Competent shot stopper at championship level. Ideally an experienced option but not an absolute requirement.
Finances: Free Transfer or Loan. Low Wages.
Option 1: Vasilis Barkas
Team: Celtic, Scottish Premiership
Wages: £11k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: Potential Free Transfer or Loan.
Overview: Pointed out to me by ‘BhoysAnalytics’ on twitter. Out of favor at Celtic so could be available on loan or even an arranged free transfer as often seen with goalkeepers not playing. Watched several clips of him and looks very assured on the ball, completed 78% of his passes at Athens in 19–20. Commanding wise not fantastic but is a decent shot stopper, with a save rate of 72%. Was poor at Celtic but put in good performances in Greece at AEK Athens prompting a £4.5m switch to Glasgow. Probably won’t find much better options as a championship #2 but again poses the questions of would he join Swansea as a second-choice goalkeeper and do Celtic let him leave for free.
Option 2: Kelle Roos
Team: Derby County, English Championship
Wages: £15k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: Having watched Roos over the past number of seasons at Derby I was quite surprised at his overall impressive data, can be error prone and Derby fans will be quick to point out his flaws but as a number two I think he would be sufficient. Good shot stopper overall in comparison to championship goalkeepers, ranks higher than Fisher, Benda and Hamer in that regard being in the 97th percentile in Save Rate % and top quartile in goals prevented. Roos had a Save Rate of 75% and Prevented 0.33 Goals per 90 played. All whilst being fairly comfortable in possession, was trusted by Phillipe Cocu and yielded 70.5% Passing Accuracy in the 19/20 season. 2.17 Exits was amongst the better between championship goalkeepers too and his obvious favorable height of 1.96m. An Attractive proposition on a free transfer although wages would have to be reduced to below £10k p/w.
Option 3: Joseph Wollacott
Team: Swindon Town, League 2.
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: Brilliantly well rounded young goalkeeper available on a free transfer from League 2. Plays in a possession heavy system at Swindon Town and attempts 26.6 Short Passes per game with a Passing Accuracy of 87.34%. However, it is not just his on ball actions that appeal, he is 6'3 and commanding of area (1.7 Exits p/90) on top of being an astute shot stopper. Wollacott’s Save Percentage is 72.4% while he Prevents 0.23 Goals per 90 minutes. Having been a number two and reserve goalkeeper for large parts of his career and establishing himself as Ghana’s number one, the question is would he be willing to join as second choice, initially anyways.
Option 4: Scott Bain
Team: Celtic, Scottish Premiership.
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: Loan or Free Transfer
Overview: Another out of favor Celtic goalkeeper, between one of the two probably Barkas, will be available to Leave Celtic Park this summer you would think. Another reasonable backup goalkeeper with experience and ability of playing in high possession systems. Was comfortable hitting it long and short for Celtic in the 20–21 season. Bain completed an impressive 92.56% of his attempted 20.26 Short Passes per 90 while was too impressive kicking in long, despite only attempting 5 Long Passes per game, he had a success rate of 71.58%. Shot stopping wise Bain had a Save % of just shy of 72% while he Prevented 0.23 goals per 90. However, would more than likely rather stay Celtics second choice than a switch to South Wales, Barkas seems the more likely of the two to leave but a departure is not off the cards for Scott Bain.
Option 5: Antonio Sivera
Team: Deportivo Alaves, La Liga
Wages: £4k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: Not so much a data-driven choice but more so an opportunistic pick up on a free transfer. Also note, data size is far too small a sample but just used for visual purposes. Sivera was highly rated as a youngster and played for Valencia’s B team and most of Spain’s underage sides winning the u21 Euro’s as starting GK. This pedigree prompted good ability in possession unlike what the visualization displays given he was playing such a small sample size for Almeria in tough fixtures. Real Madrid even allegedly showed interest following the Euros victory. However, his stock has fallen massively since and has barely played any senior minutes in recent years. His small number of La Liga appearances this season should grant him a work permit, something of which fellow countryman goalkeeper I admire, Jordi Masip would fail to get. On a free transfer and low wages, this could be smart.
Option 6: Runar Alex Runarsson
Team: OH Leuven, Belgium Pro League. (On Loan from Arsenal)
Wages: £15k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan
Overview: The Arsenal loanee has had an okay season in Belgium at OH Leuven after taking a massive confidence hit after some shaky performances for the Gunners, where to be fair he was never the required standard. Probably has not done enough to gain any serious interest elsewhere and Leuven are not paying the £1m optional fee to make his loan permanent. At 27, he has had some good seasons, notably with Dijon in France and at Championship level would be probably slightly above average in terms of shot stopping and above average in possession. This season in Belgium he had a Save Rate of 70.59% while Preventing 0.09 Goals per 90. OH Leuven generally rank slightly below average for possession and passing metrics as a collection which is in line with Runnarsson’s passing metrics in which goalkeepers are heavily influenced by teams style of play. If a 60:40 wage split could be agreed, Runarsson would be adequate competition.
Conclusion: A tough position to fill given the financial constraints opted and the fact the player brought in will be second fiddle to Andrew Fisher. The technical requirement of a Swansea City goalkeeper also massively reduces the pool of players. There’s not a huge disparity in terms of ability between the options so would not be too focused on a particular figure. Roos’ Championship experience could edge him while Barkas has performed at a high European standard and could be a shrewd recruit, finances and playing time abiding which in itself could prove unfruitful. Wollacott looks an ideal fit but will seek to be a number one and may be hard to convince. Janis Blaswich was one who fit the bill, a 30 year old well rounded free agent from Heracles in the Netherlands but was signed by RB Leipzig surprisingly. Sivera has pedigree and fits the criteria. Runnarsson could be a temporary fix. Obviously some really solid Premier League goalkeepers who will be available for loan such as Jamie Cumming at Chelsea and Gavin Bazunu at Manchester City but are not realistic options given Fisher is to be first choice.
Center Back
Overview: The players listed below are considered without a Cabango sale / and are not Ben Cabango replacements, which will be evaluated later on and the players here will be considered to start alongside Naughton and Cabango as main stays in the back three.
Criteria: Ideally compliment Naughton and Cabango’s attributes. Naughton is amongst the finest ball playing center backs in the division but does come with physical and athletic deficiencies, while Cabango, ever improving, requires a more mobile, technical counterpart. In summary, a mobile, ball playing center back with good defensive instincts — ideally comfortable in the center or flank of the back 3. It is a specialized position in which requires enormous qualities in possession and being athletic, often times of which has failed Swansea City this campaign, unique skillset for a championship defender. It is a rare skillset to have at Championship level, only the likes of Jacob Greaves and Rob Dickie posses but are far too expensive, however of that type.
Finances: £0-£1.5m
Option 1: Harry Darling
Team: MK Dons, English League 1
Wages: £2.5k p/w
Contract: Undisclosed but rumors of 2023
Est. Cost: £1m if contract up in 2023, £1.5m-£2m otherwise
Overview: Absolutely no surprises with this inclusion, and rightly so. Signed by Russell Martin for MK Dons from Cambridge United January 2021, Darling is a Rolls-Royce of a defender. Would fit the criteria to a tee in terms of what Swansea City need as a center back recruit. 6'2 and mobile for start, would massively aid in Swansea’s transitional speed and dealing with balls over the top with the high line played. A solid defender overall, picking and winning the majority of his Defensive Duels (72.41% success rate). Aerially his underlying visual comparisons look poor and Darling’s Aerial win rate is 54.85%. However, at Cambridge United this exceeded 60%. Has played most of his football at MK Dons in the center of a back 3, but given his traits both technically and athletically he could easily slot in either flank at Swansea also. It is his possession qualities that catch the eye and composure on the ball. Darling averages 58 Short Passes per 90 along with a very impressive 89.3% accuracy. His long passing looks penetrative and solid despite the low percentile rank. To add to the hugely impressive arson, Darling chipped in with 10 goals in all competitions for MK Dons, something Swansea have lacked — a threat from set pieces, ranking comfortably 24th in the division for goals scored from set pieces. A piece of business the club must get done this summer, but could face intense competition. Would transpire into £10m+ sale in 12–24 months, I would be nearly sure of that.
Option 2: Nahuel Ferraresi
Team: Estorial Praia, Liga Portugal. (On Loan from Manchester City)
Wages: £10k p/w
Contract: Undisclosed
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan, + potentially an option if Promoted
Overview: Perfect criteria for a center back at Swansea. He is mobile, tall and can play in either the center, left or right of a back 3. Defending wise Ferreresi is solid too, with an Aerial Duel success of 60% and a Defensive Duel success of 67%. Comfortable in possession, completing 89.7% of 57 Passes per 90. Also when watching Ferraresi, his ability to drive, carry and progress the ball both through carrying and passing, from defense is a noticeable characteristic of his game. Impressive Progressive Run numbers of 1.76 per 90 and 1 Dribble per 90 backing this up. Purposeful passes are very much part of Ferraresi’s game, attempting 18.85 Forward Passes and 8.35 Progressive Passes a match, with impressive accuracy too. Overall just has the perfect profile and mix of qualities needed to thrive in Russell Martins set up and would compliment the likes of Naughton and Cabango as a defensive unit. Questions could get asked about the feasibility of a potential deal and will get higher interest than Swansea for sure, but the style of play would stand in good stead in securing any form of a deal. His long term prospects and ambitions at Manchester City are unknown, but even a season playing in a style similar to the citizens could be of huge appeal and help craft and create a more attractive asset and profile of a player. Would be a tough deal to successfully complete for the 14 time Venezuelan international, but Swansea would represent a step up from lower/mid Portugal. And who knows, maybe a promotion purchase clause could be possible but would definitely take him on just a temporary basis.
Option 3: Jake Clarke-Salter
Team: Coventry, English Championship. (On Loan from Chelsea)
Wages: £9k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: A ball playing, left footed center back out of contract who has played 69 games at Championship level at Coventry and Birmingham, what’s not to like. Aggressive at defending playing on the left of a back 3 at Coventry, Clarke-Salter attempts 8.51 Defensive Duels, winning 70.8% whilst being modestly powerful in the air also succeeding in 61.4% of Aerial Duels, above the league average. Has that nice combination of using his athletic and technical capabilities of getting the ball forward through punching passes between lines, 24.79 Forward Passes and 10.55 Progressive Passes. Takes it out at 1.09 Progressive Runs a game while hitting it long on occasion with a high 63.25% precision. Really nice rounded option on a free and should be heavily considered but competition will be intense for Clarke-Salters signature both home and abroad.
Option 4: Cas Odenthal
Team: NEC Nijmegen, Dutch Eredivisie
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: Another Dutch center back, available for a free transfer with an interesting profile. Based off the eye test not as sold on current ability with Odenthal as I was with Mats Knoester (now unavailable) but would represent a potential bargain given his documented high ceiling. Has the raw attributes to be a very good center back but still needs refining and might not necessarily improve the defense immediately but one we could look to develop over the course of 2–3 seasons and sell for a healthy profit. 6'3 but quite dangly in his physique he is relatively mobile and shows some decent underlying numbers as well as playing some of the highest amount of minutes in the league, very impressive for a 21 year old. Passing wise he completes 88.21% of his Short Passes but is not quite as comfortable as of yet as the numbers suggest but could be developed in that aspect, whilst progressing the ball 7.88 times per 90 through his ball playing. Has played in midfield in his career before. Defensively Odenthal wins a reasonable 57.02% of his Aerial Duels and more impressively 72.35% of his Ground Duels. What you have is a fairly raw but high ceiling player available on a free transfer but more a long term impact than straight away, I would say.
Option 5: Dimitri Lavalee
Team: Sint-Truiden, Belgian Pro League. (On Loan from Mainz)
Wages: £6k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £500k-£750k
Overview: A very aggressive, left footed center back playing in Belgium who would add a degree of hardness and bite to the Swansea defense. Being left footed he would obviously slot into the left hand side on the back 3 and has played in midfield this season too, arguing that his on ball abilities and composure are better than the metrics suggest. Only Passes the ball 38 times on average per game at 75.31% accuracy which is low at face value, but with context Sint-Truiden are very much a low block side only completing 71.8% of their passes with 42.3% possession. Transferring from such contrasting sides can prove difficult but Lavalee does show good technical ability if you watch him and 9.31 Progressive Passes per game, given his low number of passes is mightily impressive. Another profiled CB that excels in progressive running too, clocking 1.58 Progressive Runs per 90. Defensively is his strong point, however and would contribute in fixing Swansea’s soft underbelly. Engages in a whopping 10.2 Defensive Duels a game with a 63.16% win rate and aerially is okay too winning 56.52% of Aerial Duels. Although his aggression needs to be harnessed having received 10 yellow cards in the 2021/22 season.
Option 6: Jordi Vanlerberghe
Team: KV Mechelen, Belgian Pro League
Wages: £6k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £750k-£1m
Overview: Another similar profile center back in the Belgian Pro League. Have not seen as much of Vanlerberghe as Lavalee and would be less preferred but still an interesting player should other avenues fail. Well rounded across the board, the 6'2 Belgian can too operate in midfield as well as any where across the backline. Adequate defensively, winning 70% of Defensive Duel attempts but is poor aerially succeeding in 52% of contested Aerial Duels. More composed statistically than Lavalee in passing terms, 85.35% of 54 Passes per game are successful with KV Mechelen being a possession dominant outfit, making any potential conversion easier. Again, very progressive with regards to his passing, 10.66 attempted progressive passes per 90.
Missed Option: Mats Knoester
Team: Heracles, Dutch Eredivisie
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: Unfortunately signed for Hungarian side Ferencvaros. Was available on a free transfer, Knoester a left footed central defender. Pretty much just a more turned on defensively, Ryan Manning. Playing predominately as a LCB in a back 4, he would have suited the left of a Swansea back 3 very well. 6'2 with a good turn of pace, he is a decent defender too. In the Eredivisie this season, Knoester won 72.41% of his 7.05 Defensive Duels and 59% of his Aerial Duels. Loves to take the ball out of defense and help transition defense into attack progressing the ball 1.86 times in such fashion. Similarly to Ryan Manning on the left has lower passing accuracy numbers at 85% accuracy of Short Passes in comparison to others but is always looking to play that first time ball into feet and make functional passes, an impressive 10.21 Progressive Passes a match. Now unavailable.
Conclusion: Harry Darling has to be the absolute number one option. Possess all the qualities required in this hugely demanding role. Will be no short of interest. The EFL is not littered in profiles equipped for the positional demands. Should Darling fail through financial or competition reasons, I see no better alternative than Nahuel Ferraresi on a season long loan deal. Would be a difficult deal to secure but if possible as good a budget option as Swansea coud find. Jake Clarke-Salter will be in high demand but another suitable candidate to be looked at. Cas Odenthal is a free transfer availability from Holland, Mats Knoester was preferred overall but Odenthal is a promising talent with decent resale value. You would think would have to be targeted early on in the window given his free agent status. Dimitri Lavalee and Jordi Vanlerberghe represent solid mid-range options playing their trade in Belgium and should be considered if others are unfruitful.
Right Wingback
Overview: It is becoming more unlikely that Cyrus Christie will be playing his football in a Swansea City shirt next term, so alternative targets will be profiled. These players will be considered the main RWB at the club, with competition options outlined afterwards.
Criteria: Russell Martin clearly favors wingbacks pressed up distinctly high up the pitch that possess a high-level athletic profile. Given the reliability on wingbacks for attacks a productive threat in terms of creativity, ideally high expected assists (XA) and ball carrying ability as Christie and Laird have shown would be desired. Based off Martins RWBs signed over his short managerial career Ethan Laird, Tennai Watson, Peter Kioso, Cyrus Christie they all share similar playing profiles so shortlisted names will be similar.
Finances: Free Transfer or Loan ideally. Perhaps, sales dependent a transfer fee could be used to bring in such a player.
Option 1: Kane Wilson
Team: Forest Green Rovers, English League 1
Wages: £1k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: An outstanding talent at League 2 level who will probably have 15+ clubs lined up for his services being a free transfer, I think maybe without compensation, given that he is a West Brom academy graduate. Wilson pretty much is the full package when it comes to what you want from your wingback, a multi dimensional attacking threat. Ranks #1 in numerous metrics in his respective position. Per game, Wilson creates 0.26XA while delivering 5.41 Crosses. Isn’t just a creative force, ball carrying and dribbling 1v1 is another avenue in which Wilson deploys attempting 9.26 Progressive Runs per game and 4.33 Dribbles. His defensive metrics will be distorted by his high role on the pitch but should be adequate in that regard as a Championship level wing back in a system such as Swansea’s. All in all, on a free transfer and an affordable salary, playing in a footballing side in a similar role to a Swansea wingback, you have a player that aligns perfectly with what Swansea require in the role and budget which fits the structure. One problem though, Watford will be prime candidates for his signature and Bristol City have already entered negotiations.
Option 2: Chiedozie Ogbene
Team: Rotherham United, English Championship
Wages: £4k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £500k-£750k
Overview: A more premium option in terms of outlay in comparison to the others and would require sales elsewhere but simply cannot be ignored. A winger by trade with electric pace and running speed he has been converted to an effective RWB by Rotherham. Swansea’s wingbacks style would suit Ogbene more than most and compliment his attacking nature, with nearly all of Swansea’s 21/22 wingbacks featuring in the the 5 for touches in the opposition box. Ogbene created 0.18 Expected Goal scoring opportunities per 90 while being a ball carrying and dribbling machine with 4.8 Progressive Runs and 8.21 Dribbles to compliment this. Despite being far from a defensively minded player Ogbene still succeeded in 60.26% of 4 Defensive Duels per match. In short, a very nice prospect to potentially explore later in the window, finances depending.
Option 3: Cyrus Christie
Team: Fulham, English Premier League
Wages: £20k p/w at Fulham
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: Was a solid addition since signing from Fulham on loan in January, a seasoned championship right back. Strong ball carrier, attempting 2.4 Progressive Runs a match and really like when he drives inside too from the right flank, although can frustrate with lack of conviction to play key balls when in dangerous areas, of which he gets into more frequently than most in his position, in fact 2.83 Touches in the Opposition Box per 90. Chipped in with 3 goals and 5 assists too averaging 0.11XG and 0.11XA per game. Has on the whole been defensively sound given his attacking license in the system. Overall, a very well-rounded right wing back at Championship level and provides a level of know how and has been promoted before, Fulham did have the option to extend his deal but did not uptake this and he is available for Swansea to sign permanently on a free, given Christie would accept lowered wage demands to his current rate.
Option 4: Ethan Laird
Team: Bournemouth, English Championship. (On Loan from Manchester United)
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2023 + Option of an additional year.
Est. Cost: Season Long-Loan
Overview: After an excellent first half of the season at Swansea before being poached, could he return to South Wales for a second loan spell after a very disappointing tenure at Bournemouth, with just 4 starts. I think most reading will know Laird’s qualities. Quick and direct and skillful 1v1 dribbler who can create chances for teammates. Suspect at times defensively and sometimes his decision making in the opposition box can be poor but he has the raw attributes to be an outstanding RWB, most notable performance measure defensively was his Defensive Duel success rate of 61.82%. Ranked number 1 in Dribble attempts at 7.7 per 90 and created 0.13XA at the same time, two key figures which very much sum up Laird’s game. Not impossible for him to return, I would say.
Option 5: Calvin Ramsay
Team: Aberdeen, Scottish Premiership. (Impending transfer to Liverpool)
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: N/A
Est. Cost: Season Long-Loan
Overview: An potential deal would be subject to Liverpool signing him. The very fact they are signing him for a reported £4m shows his pedigree. A hugely talented attacking right back or right wing back. Combines that sought after combination of a progressive runner and creator. Per 90, Ramsay creates 0.22 Expected Assists while being a high volume crosser -whipping in 4.85 Crosses at 32.58% accuracy. He is amongst the top 10 percentile in Progressive Runs (2.61 p/90) and Dribbles (4.86 p/90). Seriously impressive underlying metrics for an 18 year old, albeit in the Scottish Premiership. Defensive numbers are low but obviously will be developed and is not the main attraction in what he offers as a player. Liverpool could look to offer a Harvey Elliot style development plan to Ramsay by loaning him to the Championship or he may be kept as Trent Alexander-Arnolds understudy, it is unsure as of yet.
Option 6: Jackson Tchatchoua
Team: RSC Charleroi, Belgian Pro League
Wages: £1k p/w
Contract: 2023 + Option of 2 additional years
Est. Cost: £1.5m
Overview: A scrambled addition after Aurelio Buta of Antwerp signed for Eintracht Frankfurt on a free transfer, who would have fit the bill perfectly. Tchatchoua would more than likely be out of Swansea’s price range unless major sales across the board and Russell having a preference to distribute his spending on wingback positions. However, he is one who could be picked up by a club for maybe under £2m this summer given he has only played 34 professional games and probably one who’s value could skyrocket. Is a winger by trade but fits in nicely at RWB and posts some solid defensive numbers both in ground and aerial duels. Attempts 6.47 Defensive Duels at 65.03% success and likewise aerially engages in 3.08 Aerial Duels, winning 51.47% of the time. Still raw on the ball but has a high ceiling and notable attacking and possession metrics are his solid crossing numbers, Expected Assists (0.09 p/90), Passes to the Penalty Area ( 2.94 p/90) and 1.91 Touches in the Opposition Box. Not one I had originally intended to include but given movement elsewhere included, probably not possible but would be shrewd. £1.5m-£2m this summer, £6m+ in a year or two.
Conclusion: Kane Wilson is the obvious stand out given the fact he is a free transfer and the suitable profile he has playing in a similar role at Forest Green Rovers. He will be in huge demand across the EFL, however. Cyrus Christie would return with confidence but concerns over wage structure and no resale value compared to other options on the market make him slightly less attractive than others. Calvin Ramsay’s fate will be determined by his summer transfer from Aberdeen and should be monitored. Chiedozie Ogbene represents another opportunist option with his contract situation, who will probably only be considered with a large sale as finances are more required elsewhere initially. Could former loanee Ethan Laird potentially make a return as Swansea’s main RWB, he was excellent in the first half of the 2021/22 campaign. Jackson Tchatchoua is the premium option of the lot and by far the least likely but as outlined if the squad is decimated maybe would be plausible but others are preferred.
Right Wingback Competition
Overview: Depth and competition is required for the starting RWB, over the course of 46 Championship games, it would be too risky only having one viable right wingback option.
Criteria: Similar to the starting right wingbacks outlined. Have enough quality to perform when called upon and possess key attacking traits in terms of creativity and ball carrying whilst having the technical capabilities of playing in a high-possession side. This one would probably be targeted late on the window and be a Premier League loan. A player who is young and hungry to play games and happy to initially join as an understudy with the view to making the starting position his through high level performances. Could even play at LWB on occasion.
Finances: Loan, low wages.
Option 1: Brooke Norton-Cuffy
Team: Lincoln City, English League 1. (On Loan from Arsenal)
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: Season Long-Loan
Overview: Was quite outstanding in his 17 appearances for Lincoln being just 18 years old on his first loan. Similar to the other profiles mentioned in terms of a creative ball carrier, running at 0.15XA and 4.38 Progressive Runs per 90. Norton-Cuffy is too, a skilled athletic 1v1 dribbler and attempted 7.09 dribbles per 90. Playing slightly deeper than others, his defensive numbers are rated higher winning 63.54% of 7.65 attempted Defensive Duels a game. Should be attainable to sign and would be a great recruit to provide cover and competition on a season long loan. An exciting talent.
Option 2: Kaine Kesler-Hayden
Team: MK Dons, English League 1. (On Loan from Aston Villa)
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2026
Est. Cost: Season Long-Loan
Overview: After a hugely impressive first loan spell at Swindon Town in League 2 at the start of the season, Aston Villa decided to move him up the EFL ladder to MK Dons, prior to the transfer circulating I thought the Dons would be a good fit. Overall, he has been fairly good but perhaps slightly underwhelmed of what he is capable of and was not that impressive in the playoffs vs Wycombe. However, Kesler is still a huge talent- touted for an Aston Villa career. His underlying attacking and possession metrics per 90 included; 0.07XA, 1.2 Progressive Runs, 3.31 Dribbles — with his most impressive showing being in terms of his crossing accuracy, completing 52% of his 2.51 Crosses a game. Nothing too impressive it has to be said but is capable of more and would be a more than sufficient competition option for the RWB role.
Option 3: Marlon Fossey
Team: Bolton, English League 1. (On Loan from Fulham)
Wages: £1k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: Season Long-Loan, could be available for low fee £250k region.
Overview: An intriguing option given the fact Fossey only has one year left on his contract and his Fulham future is far from certain. Had his season cut short through injury but was amongst the best attacking and defensively combined wingbacks in the EFL in the 15 games he played in 2021/22 for Bolton. Ranked extremely highly in pivotal forward metrics such as Expected Assists (0.16 p/90), Progressive Runs (2 p/90) and Touches in the Opposition Box (2.36 p/90). Defensively superb also, 69.66% Defensive Duel success and 7.88 Possession Adjusted Interceptions a game and was superior to most aerially too. Athletically, Fossey is very quick and has good endurance to compete at both ends of the pitch. Summed up a really nice profile who will be available on loan or for a nominal fee and would be excellent budget competition in the wingback department, even playing on the left a few times before.
Conclusion: Three excellent budget friendly right wingback cover options and to be honest am indifferent to all three and would be content with either or. Fossey on a low transfer fee could perhaps edge the other two but as we know money will be tight so Norton-Cuffy or Kesler-Hayden may have to suffice on season-long loan deals.
Left Wingback:
Overview: Given the fact Manning and Ogbeta are contracted to the club, probably just one key attacking recruit is required this summer, maybe two if the latter leaves. Hannes Wolf in my opinion did a great job at LWB and could resign but sets the tone for a similar profile required.
Criteria: Personally, enjoyed the ultra-attacking option of Hannes Wolf pushed up high at LWB and pretty much offered Swansea 4 out and out attackers on the pitch at a time, massively improving goal scoring performances. May provide a level of vulnerability against high end opposition but I would argue is effective against 15–18 sides in the division. Ideally a similar profile to him, someone who is comfortable playing on the left and can play LWB and even fill in at Attacking Midfield or as a winger in Russell’s apparent 4–3–3 experiment. Ball carrying alongside creativity as well as working hard out of possession, as Wolf did is the triad of attributes desired.
Finances: Loan / Loan + Option, Free Transfer, Sales Dependent up to £1.5m transfer fee.
Left Wing Back
Option 1: Hannes Wolf
Team: Borussia Monchengladbach, German Bundesliga
Wages: £25k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan
Overview: Not signed as a left sided wingback, but with each game grew sharper and more efficient. I liked having a very attack minded fullback to compliment Christie’s abilities. Amongst the best wingbacks at getting in the opposition box and carrying the ball and in defensive duels. His work rate out of possession is to be applauded engaging in 9.05 Defensive Duels a game albeit with a low win percentage of 55.4%, not many big-name continental footballers would do likewise in the championship. Provided rare creativity also, running at 0.15 XA p/90. Should he return next season, he will only get better and has plenty more gears to get through. Would bring him in as primarily as a left wingback in competition with Ogbeta, Manning for cover too and Wolf taking up attacking midfield roles also. He would be a huge asset next season, and is seemingly keen to return. Would need a wage split again but Swansea should definitely attempt to resign on a season-long loan deal.
“Hannes really wants to stay. I thought he’d use this to kick-start his career then go back to Gladbach and really force his way back in there, but he feels he maybe doesn’t have the future he would like there. He’s enjoyed it that much, he spoke about the supporters yesterday and he’s never had that experience. He’s really enjoyed it which is great for us. But I’m not sure we’ll be able to do it. I’d love to but I’m just not sure”. Russell Martin on Hannes Wolf. WalesOnline.
Option 2: Ryan Giles
Team: Blackburn Rovers, English Championship. (On Loan from Wolves)
Wages: £7k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: Season Long-Loan
Overview: Will probably be available for yet another Championship loan this summer from his parent club Wolves. Despite the East Stand shouting “You sc*m b*stard” at him all the second half when Swansea played Blackburn in February, hinting at his Cardiff City links, Giles would make an excellent addition. He would mirror Wolf’s ball carrying and creative element, ranking in the 99th percentile for expected assists of fullbacks and wingbacks in the Championship, producing a hugely impressive 0.30XA per 90, more than any Swansea player. Having such high levels of creativity through a high volume crosser such as Giles, who attempts a whopping 8.4 Crosses, with 34% accuracy a game, would open up further avenues for Swansea’s mixed attack. Giles too adds speed, and lots of it- another deficient trait in the current Swansea City squad. Often he uses this pace to drive into open space or beat fullbacks 1v1 and per game competed 2.49 Progressive Runs and 6.15 Dribbles, impressive stuff. If a Wolf return is not possible, Giles is the best budget option on a season loan, affordable wages and proven Championship class.
Option 3: Robin Hack
Team: Arminia Bielefeld, German 2.Bundesliga (Just relegated from Bundesliga)
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: Try for a Season Long-Loan with an Option to Buy (£1.5m-£2.5m)
Overview: A former 2.Bundesliga gem I watched frequently in 2020 who got a move to then Bundesliga side Arminia Bielefeld and performed poorly in their relegation season. By no means a wingback by trade, very much an attacker but I do see similarities in how he could play LWB, Hannes Wolf style, specifically in a Swansea City system. The data is not indicative of his abilities and would argue he is much better than the underlying numbers suggest when watching him, although his best season probably came the year before. At Nuremburg he portrayed his very sharp technical abilities and is extremely comfortable in possession, despite his passes appearing safe in the underlying data he is excellent at retaining the ball as his 82.51% Passing Accuracy suggests as does his passing to the penalty area success %. Fair to say data-wise he wasn’t fantastic, and is an observant pick rather than a data-driven one. His metrics per 90 such as 0.13XA and 0.19XG is below his capabilities, as is 3.62 Dribbles and 1.95 Progressive Runs. Does have the skill and speed to improve upon these figures. His Defensive Duel attempts relative to others, in the 90th percentile, , 2.74 per 90, is what caught my eye even further as him being used as a wingback under Russell Martin. Hannes Wolf is similar in aggressive off the ball actions but with low success rates. Swansea’s wingbacks defensive duties are loose to say the least but this off ball aggression would be a good indication of Hack being used outside of his usual position. Financially I am unsure what would be required, whether Bielefeld would accept a Loan + Option or if he would be available for less than the £2m they paid after a poor showing in 2022. High potential, underperforming player who could play LWB and either attacking midfielder roles. One I rate very highly.
Option 4: Tariqe Fosu
Team: Brentford, English Premier League
Wages: £15k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £500k
Overview: Seemingly on the verge of signing for Swansea last August until a final minute collapse, Fosu is one I do rate and despite not being a wingback by trade, feel his profile of player would thrive as a wingback (either side) in a Russell Martin system. Fosu is quick and agile along with having a very good work rate off the ball and in comparison to championship attackers last year he was amongst the best defensively, winning 58.75% of the 5.84 Defensive Duels per 90. Attacking wise, he would offer a good outlet in terms of ball carrying with his speed and solid technical ability. In the final third he is fairly creative and created 0.10XA a game, whilst can too offer a goal threat, most notably seen in his short Oxford spell in 2019/20 where he scored 8 goals in 21 starts. Has not played much football at all in the past 12 months, with just 105 minutes in all competitions in 2021/22 for Brentford, so would need a full pre-season to get back up to speed. Given the fact he is clearly out of favor in West London and has one year remaining on his deal, he is one who should be able to be picked up for a cheap fee, around £500k I would guess but would have to reduce his weekly wages from £15k p/w to be considered. A legitimate option to consider.
Option 5: Theo Corbeanu
Team: MK Dons, League 1. (On loan from Wolves)
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan if a new deal is signed at Wolves, £1.5m if not.
Overview: Another who is by no means an out and out wingback and barely qualified as a wingback through Wyscout, having been deployed left wing back at Sheffield Wednesday earlier in the season before spending the majority of his MK Dons minutes as right winger. In that sense, take his metrics with a pinch of salt as they will be majorly skewed. Ranks in the number one percentile of league 1 fullbacks and wingbacks in a few metrics, Offensive Duels (17.98 p/90), Progressive Runs ( 6.97 p/90), Successful Attacking Actions (10.96 p/90), Touches in the Opposition Box ( 4.83 p/90) and Dribbles (13.09 p/90), to name a few. Corbeanu is a supremely skilled, erratic talent who would thrive in a Russell Martin side, against the right opposition. Defensively he is poor so against more potent Championship outfits could be a liability, his Defensive Duel success rate is near the league average at 58.33%. Could offer versatility in attacking roles also. Was absolutely electric in the League 1 one second leg playoff semi-final between MK Dons and Wycombe and showcased his undoubted natural talent. His situation with Wolves is unclear, should he sign a new deal a season-long loan would be very plausible, however with sales and exits and no new deal at Wolves, he could be available for a snip of a fee with one year left on his current deal. You would think, no more than £2m and a hefty sell on clause % would secure a deal in such a scenario. One to watch, can cover attacking positions also and at that price would represent a deal with massive resale value and fill the potential Hannes Wolf void in doing so for the upcoming campaign.
Option 6: Harrison Burrows
Team: Peterborough United, League 1
Wages: £2.5k p/w
Contract: Undisclosed, estimate 2024.
Est. Cost: £1.5m-£2.5m
Overview: A premium choice who would only be possible through several sales, while others are preferred. Nonetheless, Burrows is a highly talented 20 year old, who while mainly has been deployed as LWB this season can also play in central midfield and to the left of an attacking duo. He is a well rounded footballer given his age. Relatively creative, creating 0.10XA p/90 while ending the season with 7 assists. Gets in good positions for a wingback as highlighted by his impressive attacking metrics such as 0.10XG and 1.22 Shots per 90 and other impressive underlying numbers as seen. Athletically has a decent overall profile without possessing searing pace. Not as progressive or dribbling heavy as others, just 2.37 Dribble attempts and 1.35 Progressive Runs a game highlighting this. However is more switched on defensively and aggressive than others, engaging in 7.19 Defensive Duels a game with a success rate of 59.87%. Overall a promising prospect who should be monitored but could prove too costly, however with multiple sales may be possible.
Option 7: Callum O’Dowda
Team: Bristol City, English Championship.
Wages: £9k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: The most realistic and budget option of the list, but least attractive proposition. A player deemed with high potential just a few seasons back, O’Dowda’s career has faltered in recent years through a combination of injuries and mixed form. Has moved more towards a wingback berth in recent years and probably matches his skillset best in the current day. O’Dowda creates 0.13XG a game along with 4.25 Crosses so would offer a decent output in those terms. Given his injuries is not as much a 1v1 dribber or ball carrier as he once was but still Dribbles 3.92 times a game and completes 1.46 Progressive Runs. Above average in terms of speed and overall physical profile but has become injury prone which may be of concern. Overall, on a free transfer if the aforementioned alternatives are unable to happen, despite at face value being pretty underwhelming would be okay business by the club.
Conclusion: Which players are targeted is fully dependent on outgoings and Hannes Wolf’s situation. Ryan Giles on loan or a small fee for Tariqe Fosu provide two previous high performing championship wide player budget options. Robin Hack is a player I have admired for a number of years and while it may be a push to play him wingback, he has very good qualities and works out of possession, would be quite similar to Wolf in how he is used between attacking midfield and left wing back. Theo Corbeanu is more so a differential potential permanent option, with far more defensive risk. Callum O’Dowda would be a less impressive acquisition than others but given the finances involved and competition for other targets, could be considered. Burrows would only be plausible if major sales occur elsewhere.
CENTRAL MIDFIELD:
Overview: Imperative to keep Grimes & Downes but regardless a figure for depth and competition is needed given the expected flurry of departures in this area. Grimes should be here, but Downes’ future is not so clear.
Criteria: I believe potential recruits in midfield should posses a top end athletic profile in terms of speed, mobility and endurance combined with the technical qualities in possession needed to operate in Swansea’s high possession midfield. Downes & Grimes is an elite midfield duo at the level, but extra levels of energy and combative ability is needed. Should be good enough to start and operate on a frequent basis if called upon. Will be brought in as 3rd choice at first but would look to potentially groom into a Flynn Downes 2023 replacement, so therefore provide a similar profile.
Finances: Free transfer or very nominal fee.
Option 1: David Kasumu
Team: MK Dons, English League 1
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £200k-£300k compensation
Overview: Another MK Dons man and a former Russell Martin player. Exactly the profile Swansea require in the midfield department to compliment and provide depth for Matt Grimes and Flynn Downes. Excellent both athletically and physically and covers serious ground through his combined natural abilities and impressive work rate. A very aggressive central midfielder who is terrific defensively, per 90 Kasumu engages in 8.92 Defensive Duels with a seriously impressive 75.68 win %. Often under Russell Martin played in a single pivot in midfield as a 6 with two 8s in front of him and almost played a lone role defensively such is his defensive capabilities. He combines not only this defensive combat style with comfortable, clean possession play- completing 83.82% of 38.25 Passes attempted a game. Like Downes, he too excels at driving runs from midfield and ranks in the 83% percentile for League 1 central midfield Progressive Runs, with 1.61 per 90. Overall you have a player with a similar skillset to Downes and would sign him as a view to being his 2023 replacement and long term successor in that regard, while initially coming in to provide some much needed alternative legs, running power and defensive class. Would come with a number of concerns, however. Despite his impressive defensive work rate, can be rash at times as highlighted by the 8 yellow cards received this season in just 1,172 minutes, which too represents concerns over availability as he has had injury concerns during his brief professional career. The rewards far outweigh any potential liabilities, especially given the fact he is out of contract and should be available for a nominal fee. One that must be near the top of the list to get done.
It’s a symptom of what we’re asking them to do. It’s a massive role in our team, they are really selfless in some of the fouls they make. They are there to protect the back three first and do it incredibly well and that’s shown by the amount of shots we concede on our goal. Russell Martin on Kasumu’s Booking record & Role.
Option 2: Andy Rinomhota
Team: Reading, English Championship
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: A similar alternative to Kasumu with championship experience, 125 games at the level, is Reading’s Andy Rinomhota. Like Kasumu, Rinomhota is a central midfield player who mixes defensive tenacity with strong athletic and physical capabilities along with being comfortable in possession and has the ability to mix it up and carry the ball through the middle. Watching Rinomhota, he impressive more than the underlying data suggests, with his best form coming in the 2020/21 season, whilst this season has been more of a struggle in a disjointed Royals side. Picks and wins his Defensive battles, posting a high win rate of 65.04%, while getting through an average amount of defensive duels in comparison to his rival counterparts. Keeps it simple when in possession, often just laying it off to a teammate, his skillset is not really to too anything too fancy with the ball. Wins his defensive duels and lays it off, completing 81.22% of Short Passes. Despite only being in the 51% percentile for progressing the ball through carries, is more than capable of posting higher numbers and would in a Swansea side. Like Kasumu, would arrive with recent injury issues and is injured until the 30th June with a knee problem, but on a brighter note managed to play 3,600 minutes in the 2020/21 campaign. Having just turned 25, no compensation would be required making any more all the more an attractive proposition.
Option 3: Panutche Camara
Team: Plymouth, English League 1
Wages: £1.5k
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £500k (Potential of Garrick as Leverage)
Overview: Included for the reason of being a differential midfielder to current options. Posses a unique profile of player at League 1 and is a physical specimen. Technically he can look a bit awkward at times in terms of passing and in possession but still precise in this regard, with Pass completion rate of 84.11%. More of a box to box work horse who loves a powering run with ball at feet and is very good 1v1 dribbling combining skill and physical attributes to brush pass opponents. The numbers back this up, 1.8 Progressive Runs and 2.76 Dribbles at 56.31% completion rate. Defensively he would add some steel and is in the 87th percentile for Defensive Duels, at 8.06 per 90, succeeding in 61.79%. With a year left on his deal and being transfer listed along with perhaps Jordan Garrick being included in some form of deal, its an interesting avenue for an interesting player for the Guinea-Bissau international.
Option 4: Tom Lowery
Team: Crewe, English League 1
Wages: £1.5k
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: A diminutive little gem. In all honestly, surprised he is still playing at League 1 level seeing as Crewe have been fleeced of their academy talent in recent seasons. A lovely midfielder who has a nice rounded skillset and would add a bit of everything to Swansea’s midfield options. Extremely agile given his small frame and uses this to his advantage to be brave on the ball and always seeks possession in uncomfortable positions which would be a key requirement of a Swansea City midfielder. Can both play a forward ball or turn his marker upon receiving the ball in such areas and get the ball up the field. Very impressive progressive numbers, 8.34 Progressive Passes and 1.02 Progressive Runs with an added 80.22% Passing Accuracy. Can create and score from midfield too, 0.18XA and 4 goals providing a fruitful return for 24th place Crewe. Very active and aggressive defensively, 4.74 Defensive Duels-the 95th percentile for League 1 midfielders. His size has raised cause for concern but top quality technical abilities mean he should bypass these deficiencies. On a free transfer, another to be considered who would thrive in a Swansea City midfield. Eligible for Wales too.
Option 5: Romaine Sawyers
Team: Stoke City, English Championship
Wages: £12k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: A recently made free agent, Sawyers long know technical class at this level would make him a very smart acquisition on a free transfer to provide some high quality competition for Grimes and Downes. Defensively, okay does engage in more Defensive Duels than the average Championship central midfielder at 6.5 per 90 but would join for his on ball actions. Quality in possession and playing purposeful passes as well as retaining the ball in central areas through neat and tidy short passes, completing 88.4% of 82.58 Short Passes per game. Created 0.07XA and attempted 1.63 Dribbles and can provide more of a forward thinking emphasis than Downes and Grimes, while if Fulton stayed you would have a nice blend of attributes across midfield options. Mobility wise, okay, not as good as others mentioned but probably adequate physically for what would be required.
Option 6: Steven Alzate
Team: Brighton, English Premier League
Wages: £20k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan
Overview: A differential, Premier League loan option should he become available this summer. Interesting profile of a player. Defensively solid but his real skill lies in terms of technical traits, as you would expect from a Graham Potter player. Note his data presents a small sample size with just 404 minutes played so should be interpreted accordingly. Was successful in 71.43% of 8.59 Defensive Duels per 90 and boasted an impressive 8.69 Possession Adjusted Interceptions, showing good reading of the game as well as defensive engagement and aggression. Very comfortable at receiving the ball and past that making a pass or moving it forward himself. In terms of Short Passes, 88.65% reached a teammate. Alzate can take the ball forward through other means than passing and did so at 3.07 Dribble attempts in his lowly league minutes per 90. Versatile too, can play further forward and slightly deep whilst even operating in wingback roles from time to time. His versatility and alternative skillset could offer Swansea something for a season and add depth and talent to numerous departments. Whether Brighton would loan him out in the first place and on a shared wage basis, time will tell.
Bonus Option: Joe Allen
Team: Stoke, English Championship
Wages: £50k p/w (Willing to join on 25% of that according to media reports)
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
*Errors within Dataset for Allen input. (Not that anyone needs to see his underlying numbers as most Swansea fans know what he is about)
Overview: Does not necessarily meet the criteria outlined but given his ties with the club along with intense media speculation of a switch, he cannot be ignored. Despite not being the player he once was, still would be more than good enough as competition in the engine room. Defensively, Allen is still amongst the finest operators in the Championship and his 7.34 Defensive Duels and 7.35 PAdj Interceptions, highlight this. Obviously given his pedigree, a top quality technician ball playing wise too and keeps possession ticking over in a simple, non penetrative fashion. Not much needs to be said on Allen overall, its a given but finances pending would agree on the potential signing. It does make sense, he is an experienced leader who would add numerous non quantifiable qualities also.
Conclusion: Some very attractive propositions in this list available on free transfers. David Kasumu is the standout for me. Has played under Martin, as described posses all the key criteria along with the potential of resale and ability to be Flynn Downes’ long-term successor. Andy Rinomhota of Reading is similar to Kasumu and a free transfer also and would be content with him. Tom Lowery doesn’t perhaps fit the profile as well as the other two and would not provide a long-term solution to Downes’ future departure but is a hugely talented, differential player out of contract. Joe Allens experience and obvious history with the football club alongside the fact he is a suitable candidate regardless of links with Swansea and a free agent means he is one to be monitored, should top targets fail to materialize. His Stoke City teammate Romaine Sawyers should be looked at in some capacity also. Panu Camara is an interesting one with a year left on his deal and again should be on the radar if top targets are not secured and a low fee is possible. A Premier League loan option, Steven Alzate could be a possibility late in the window if Brighton deem him surplus to requirements but more so a last-ditch option.
ATTACKING MIDFIELD
Overview: Off the basis that Paterson, Ntcham and Piroe stay, a versatile attacking midfielder is still a requirement regardless.
Criteria: Creativity has been an issue for Swansea in the 21/22 campaign along with adequate competition in the advanced midfielder department, with Korey Smith often being used — very unsuccessfully in this void. Ideally a candidate should have a dual attacking threat combo of creativity and goal scoring ability along with being comfortable on the ball in deeper areas and in the opposition penalty box. Versatile in their positions be that left, right or central and capable of numerous roles. However, the absolute key is attacking penetration qualities.
Finances: Sales Dependent, £0-£2m
Option 1: Amine Bassi
Team: Barnsley, English League 1. (On Loan from Metz)
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £1m-£1.5m
Overview: The Moroccan magician put a show on for Swansea City fans at the Swansea.Com in April, showcasing the talent he would bring to South Wales if a move happens. Hugely creative player most importantly, whilst playing in a relegation battle through his mean set pieces and open play laser vision, Bassi created 0.21XA per game, ranking in the 94th percentile in the league. Think how much he would thrive as a Russell Martin number 10, who has proven to take such talent to the next level in his short managerial career with Scott Fraser and Jamie Paterson having the best seasons of their respective careers under his guidance and the sheer amount of ball they get on. Not the biggest goal threat but you could still expect 4–7 goals over a season, has scored at a modest frequency in France. Silky dribbling and ease in possession add to his desirable play set. Tends to rank in the 60%-80% percentile for most penetrative passing metrics such as progression, forward passes, passes to the penalty area and passes to the final third. What makes it all the more plausible is his parent club Metz have been relegated to Ligue 2 in France, meaning any potential transfer will be more the so viable and consist of lower expenses.
Option 2: Samuel Shashoua
Team: CD Tenerife, Spanish Segunda Division
Wages: £8k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £1m-£1.5m
Overview: An Englishman plying his trade in Spain’s second tier, the former Spurs academy man would be an excellent addition to Swansea’s front line this summer. A versatile forward who usually plays just off the left either in a two or three man attack, and could cover both attacking midfielder roles and even be tasked to lead the line. Shashoua is only 5'7 but a great technical forward who is comfortable dropping slightly deeper as well as being sharp in his attacking actions more advanced. His greatest strength comes with his low center of gravity and close control and despite not being overly quick, is very agile and this aids his dribbling prowess, attempting 7.22 Dribbles a game with a success rate of 54.48%. Is too a creative fulcrum in attack and loves to play threaded through balls when picking up the ball between lines in pockets of space, a perfect compliment to Obafemi. Created 0.19XA per 90, amongst the best in Spain’s second tier and 4 assists does not justify his creative output. Goals-scoring wise he returned a modest 6 goals and had 0.27XG per 90 but you could expect him to get maybe 6–8 in a Championship season. Its not his outweighing strong point but can contribute. With just a year left on his deal and Tenerife potentially not getting promoted he is a potential bargain for the price he should be available at. Only 22 so plenty of room for development. Would be a brilliant addition to add to the forwards currently at the club and offers a wide range of attributes needed in the attacking third.
Option 3: Youssef Maziz
Team: Seraing, Belgium Pro League. (On Loan from Metz)
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £1m-£1.5m
Overview: Down on Wyscout as playing the majority of his minutes as a secondary striker so will compare his metrics to strikers, however is most definitely not a central forward and more so an attacking midfielder, even playing deeper as an 8 sometimes. To start, an output of 9 goals and 8 assists for a side finishing in 17th place is a seriously impressive feat. Maziz, who predominantly plays coming in off the left, is both creative and has an eye for scoring goals and showed some composed finishing when around the penalty box. Looks very comfortable technically in what I have seen of him and despite the obvious skews given his range of positions which even included a deeper midfield role on occasion, ranked number 1 in the Belgian top flight strikers for Passes into the Penalty Area (3.43 per 90) and Passes to the Final Third (7.53 per 90). Very good at playing dangerous through balls between center back and fullback positions and created 0.17XA per 90. Not a high volume dribbler or ball carrier in comparison to deeper lying players but amongst front men again ranked highly and is still a skillful player in that sense when facing an opponent 1v1. Often when receiving the ball looks to take it in and play that key pass behind defensive lines or lay it off to a teammate and shows great awareness of fellow teammates. Not particularly quick, I see some similarities with Said Benrahma in is physical profile. He ticks the criteria of being effective dropping deep and potency in more forward areas, something of which is crucial to be as a one of Swansea’s two attacking midfielders. Would compliment Obafemi’s running power well with his threaded balls and too offer a goal threat, 0.21XG per 90. His parent side Metz have been relegated to Ligue 2 so should be available for a cut price fee even if he has two years left on his contract and is currently on reasonable wages to fit the structure. An eye-catching talent who has been touted to succeed at a high level since his 3rd tier French days at US Avranches.
Option 4: Mounir Chouiar
Team: Yeni Malatyspor, Turkish Super Lig. (On Loan from Dijon)
Wages: £10k p/w
Contract: Media claim 2022, but probably 2023
Est. Cost: £1m-£1.5m
Overview: A far more talented player than the underlying metrics suggest, despite playing for a very poor Yeni Malatyspor side who finished comfortably last on a meagerly 20 points. Despite this did have moments of positive play, above average performers in desperate sides always ones to look out for. Natural gifted dribbling has always been his greatest strength and was able to apply this in Turkey despite other shortcomings, ranking in the 98th and 96th percentile for both attempted Dribbles (9.07 per 90) and Progressive Runs (3.83 per 90). Is more of a creative threat than the graph suggests, operating this season at only 0.13XA a game, but has in 2019/20 for Lens at Ligue 1 level created 0.23XA likewise. More of a winger than and out and out attacking midfielder but has played there before and has the technical capabilities to fit in as one of the Swansea pair. Goal-scoring, Chouair could improve upon and has never been a prolific scorer but is capable of finding the net on occasion, with 4 this season and and 0.20XG per 90. I would see similarities to the Ntcham singing with this one, a player linked with £10m+ moves to the Premier League in recent years but a combination of underperforming and poor career choices have made him an undervalued potential recruit for the capabilities he has. Would add a mercurial, skill no other current Swansea player could offer and potentially be a hugely below potential value pickup.
Option 5: Anthony Scully
Team: Lincoln, English League 1
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £500k-£750k
Overview: Tough choice between Scully and Portsmouth’s Marcus Harness, who will be looked at later on as a potential Ntcham/Paterson replacement, but Scully edges it, just… given his age and potential resale value. A hugely diverse attacker who again mixes that nice triad attacking threat of ball carrying, creativity and goal scoring ability. Scully creates 0.21XA and gets 0.32XG goal scoring opportunities per 90 with the obvious impressive 11 goals and 7 assists to show for. Can play left and right and even through the center and was prolific in that central role for West Ham u23's in the Premier League 2. Sharp technical ability when in possession and strong ball progression only compliment these abilities further. Shows good acceleration and can run in behind and receive ball to feet in deeper areas before playing dangerous balls. A slightly cheaper option compared to others, only one year on his current deal so could be a more attainable choice.
Option 6: Manrpit Sakaria
Team: Sturm Graz, Austrian Bundesliga.
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £1.5m-£2.5m
Overview: Firstly, would be eligible through Brexit work permit restrictions unlike most Austrian Bundesliga players, as he has played 6 Europa League games in the 2021/22 season. A differential yet intriguing option he would be, having signed on a free transfer last summer from Austria Vienna he could be possibly be within the below £2m range and often Austrian based players do not command a large fee and are on a wage level below that of what a club like Swansea would be willing to offer. Played mostly on the right and central areas of the attack this season for Sturm Graz but can too play off the left, which would be a useful tool. Can look quite gangly on the ball and is by no stretch pacey but is effective in dangerous areas. Would provide a goal threat, scoring 12 goals this season and getting 0.26XG per 90 and has a terrific shot mixed with improvised finishes. Adds creativity also, 0.18XA a game to be precise, while some of this can be attained to set piece taking. As an added bonus does not switch off when the opposition is in possession, marked by 6.01 Defensive duels and 13.61 Successful Defensive actions a game and is surprisingly solid in the air. Prefer others overall and may be slightly worse value for money but nonetheless a player to monitor.
Conclusion: Some really interesting continental options available that fit the bill for fee’s between £1m-£2m. Most would require a sale elsewhere you would think, which seems very likely. Indifferent between either Samuel Shashoua, Youssef Maziz and Amine Bassi arriving, both should be considered top targets and put at the forefront of any transfer dealings given their current and potential ability and resale value. Less preferred options include Manprit Sakaria, a productive attacker available for similarly modest fees. Mounir Chouiar is an outsider punt, an undervalued coup. More budget EFL options are Irish duo Marcus Harness and Anthony Scully who due to contractual reasons should be available for around the £500k mark and are still adequate options, especially with budgeting parameters. A bonus Premier League duo not shortlisted, who may be considered on a temporary basis, is Manchester City’s James McAtee, who looks excellent. His teammate, Morgan Rogers another.
Striker
Overview: Obafemi and Piroe are arguably the best front duo in the division for 2022/23 but past that with younger options set to be loaned out for the campaign there is not any alternatives. Mentioned Attacking Midfielder targets previously and further in the piece could fill in if called upon, but to be a complete top end Championship squad another is needed. Such targets would be needed alongside Piroe or his replacement.
Criteria: Obafemi and Piroe both offer lovely complementing attributes, but I think a plan B type striker is needed, think Kieffer Moore for Bournemouth. Ideally someone who offers something different to the current duo. I would be fairly flexible in what these attributes are, be that a physical target man who is good in the air or just a goal scorer off the bench in times of need. Kyle Joseph is similar to the profile intended I just don’t feel he is ready yet and would rather he get games elsewhere, so would be hesitant to commit anything too long term or expensive for the intended targets.
Finances: Loan / Loan + Option or less than a £250k/£500k transfer fee
Option 1: Janni Serra
Team: Arminia Bielefeld, 2.Bundesliga. (Just Relegated from Bundesliga)
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: Test resolve with a Loan + Option given relegation, would be around £2m-£2.5m if not.
Overview: One I have watched a lot of live games of, especially for Holstein Kiel in 2020 when German football was the first to resume following the pandemic. Serra is very tall at 6'4 but technically very comfortable at receiving the ball, holding it up and making an accurate lay off, completing 77.2% of his Passes. Even vs Bayern Munich recently for Bielefeld he was able to showcase this sharp touch, lay off play. Despite his size and frame he is quite quick once he gets going. Aerially he is perhaps below what you would expect in duels winning 33.97% of Aerial Duels for his height but is excellent at scoring headed goals, 6/11 were with his head in 2021/22. Only scored 3 Bundesliga goals this season but notched in 13 in 31 games for Holstein Kiel in the last campaign, with 0.45XG per 90. Would definitely offer something alternative to Piroe and Obafemi and could be vital as competition in the striking department. Would be a question of whether Bielefeld can hold onto him following their relegation and could Swansea snag a Loan+Option or even a permanent if Piroe left. Not sure they will so will look at 5 others. One I really like.
Option 2: Marcus Forss
Team: Hull, English Championship. (On Loan from Brentford)
Wages: £20k p/w
Contract: 2026
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan
Overview: Need a striker who can score goals at limited game time, Marcus Forss is your man. At Brentford last season he scored 7 Championship goals in just 1080 minutes, 10 of which were starts. Getting in goal scoring positions (0.44XG per 90) and composed finishing is Forss’ game. Outside of this he doesn’t do a whole lot bar some defensive work but were he to join Swansea his role would be to firstly provide competition in the forward department but also be used as a key impact sub should a goal be required. Has not worked out at Hull in the latter half this year with 1 goal in 488 minutes of football but has that natural goal scoring nous and if a wage split could be agreed upon with Brentford to take him for a year, it’s a potentially high reward coup for a player once courted by German giants Borussia Dortmund.
Option 3: Robert Bozenik
Team: Fortuna Dusseldorf 2.Bundesliga (On Loan from Feynoord)
Wages: £6k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan
Overview: A high pedigree striker who has fallen off in recent years after his electric 2018–19 campaign with MSK Zilina in his homeland, reasons being unfortunate injuries and underperforming. Being a Slovakia international and playing a single game in the Eredvisie, and Europa Conference League qualifier games should mean that he would qualify for a work permit, or at least get close but not 100%. If possible through these regulations he would be an excellent acquisition on a temporary basis should he be available which I suspect he will be and can recapture some of his early season form. Has not happened for him in Germany’s second tier in 2020 with 2 goals in just 464 minutes of football. Playing style wise, Bozenik is a 6'2 target man who is a decent poacher as he finds himself in dangerous goal scoring positions, scoring 11 in 22 in 2018/19 while accumulating 0.49XG per 90. Fairly mobile and can test defenders resolve in behind. Comfortable at linking up play, completed 75% of Short Passes and a moderate defensively active forward. Scored vs Wales for Slovakia in 2019. Definitely has something about him and if you could get a tune out of him, he could be a deadly, albeit temporary addition to the frontline.
Option 4: Carlton Morris
Team: Barnsley, English League 1. (Recently Relegated)
Wages: £3.5k p/w
Contract: 2023 + Option of a further year
Est. Cost: £500k
Overview: Morris is an absolute battering ram of forward who’s pace and power and unpredictability causes a host of problem for opposition defenders and is a player Russell Martin will be familiar with having managed him at MK Dons. Not a penalty box striker by any means, just 0.25XG per 90 but can score a goal from nothing at times and has a powerful shot at his disposal while finding the net, given his circumstances and impressive 8 times this season. Works tirelessly defensively (4.25 Defensive Duels at a 62.04% win percentage) and is great at winning high balls . Excellent at carrying the ball 1v1 (3.95 Dribbles p/90 at 61.11% success rate) and at driving into open spaces (1.68 Progressive Runs a game). If Swansea need a goal the last 10 minutes or even need to protect a lead the last 10 minutes, Morris would be an ideal player to introduce in either scenario. His work ethic, physical nature and glimpses of quality would work in either scenario, be a great outlet in both cases. Does have 1+1 years left on his contract which would be an issue, and do you spend £500k+ on a player who will mostly be deployed as an impact sub?
Option 5: Liam Boyce
Team: Hearts, Scottish Premiership
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £150k-£300k
Overview: Want an experienced front man, who can pretty much do it all, well Liam Boyce is your man. Firstly he is a goal scorer and always has been, slightly underperformed his XG only scoring 9 from 0.51XG per 90. Can provide a level of creativity and productive passing in the attacking third, created 0.09XA a game and ranked between the 60%-70% percentile for underlying passing metrics such as Passes to the Final 1/3 (1.93 p/90) , Passes to the Penalty Area (1.43 P/90) and Second Assists. Boyce is solid in the air with a 38.43% Aerial Duel success rate from an average 8.35 Duels whilst too being reasonable at dribbling. Overall you just have an experienced, all rounded striker who would be great as a third choice forward for 1–2 seasons while Kyle Joseph develops. Currently on a low salary and given the fact he is 31 with a year left on his contract, the fee should be very minimal.
Option 6: Pierre Yves-Hamel
Team: Clermont Foot, France Ligue 1. (On Loan from Lorient)
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan, one year on contract could be an issue.
Overview: Continuing the trend of underperforming goal getters we have Pierre Yves-Hamel, who once prompted a rejected £7m bid from Brentford prior to their Ivan Toney capture. Since then, has just scored 4 goals in 42 top flight games in France but was magnificent in Ligue.2 in the previous seasons, scoring 28 goals. Physically he is not fantastic but a knack for goals and composed link up play is what he would offer. In 2018/19 scored 14 Non-Penalty Goals at 0.48XG per 90 and completed 81.69% of his Passes. Do not think he would be phenomenal by any means but with his contract running up, could do worse as a Hail Mary style striker chasing a game or used as a solid squad rotation experienced option.
Conclusion: Having watched a lot of Janni Serra he would be my preferred choice, is just a question of whether recently relegated Bielefield would accept such a proposition or would he depart his homeland. Liam Boyce is an experienced front man who would be an excellent plan B but would still require a small transfer fee which is not ideal given his age. Robert Bozenik and Pierre Yves-Hamel have not performed in a couple of seasons but would come with good pedigree and more readily available on loan that others. An EFL option include Barnsley’s Carlton Morris who could be picked up for a modest £500k but others are preferred. Marcus Forss is an exciting potential season loan from Premier League Brentford who should be available. A Joel Piroe sale changes the dynamic of this one.
REPLACEMENTS: Contingency Planning.
Given the fact that pretty much every Swansea City player would be sold at the right price, a list of 3–6 players shortlisted in case of a departure of a first team player is imperative to have so any sale can be prepared for in advance and avoid any panic or rash decisions. Piroe is almost certainly off, whilst Downes and Obafemi may attract suitors. Ben Cabango could too spark interest with his end of season form and age profile. While you could not rule out first team players like Matt Grimes, Jamie Paterson and Olivier Ntcham departing South Wales. For each category a range of options varying in financial costs will be profiled and who is targeted will largely depend on the percentage of a sale willing to be reinvested in the playing squad along with sales elsewhere which could beef up financial strength.
Center Back: Ben Cabango Potential replacements.
Overview: My preferred choice if there was only one significant departure in the summer ahead. Really like Ben and the progress he has made but is expendable for the right fee and there are cheaper replacements available in the market, who arguably fit Swansea’s system better.
Criteria: Wide center backs in the current set up are almost a hybrid of center halves and full backs. They must possess good mobility and speed for transitions and the high line incorporated. Transitional speed in defense has proved a major deficiency in the side and Swansea are far too frequently burned on transition with limited tracking back speed, think in terms of what Kyle Walker offers for Manchester City. In that case, a mobile ball playing center back comfortable in wide right positions while bringing solid defensive instincts and ideally aerial ability to the table represent categorical traits. Aerial ability is questionable in the current Swansea set up with all defenders at the club operating in around the 50%-win rate. A tough gig, requiring rare championship defender qualities to fulfil the role successfully.
Finances: Cabango sale at £4m/£6m, £1m-£3m reinvested in the position, dependent on other outgoings.
Option 1: Luke McNally
Team: Oxford United, English League 1
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £1.5m-£2m
Overview: What a talent, another off the Oxford United center back conveyor belt who I suspect will follow Rob Dickie and Rob Atkinson to the Championship this summer for a similar fee. Excellent across the board, truth be told. 6'2, strong mobile and a powerful defender who is top quality at defensive duties aerially (66% of 9.2 Aerial Duels won) and when faced 1v1 and dealing with forthcoming attacks (74.42% of 6.18 Defensive Duels won). A comfortable ball playing center back who can progressive the ball out from defense in an accurate passing manner, 9.02 Progressive Passes with 71.73% completion. Given Oxford’s possession style, shows good bravery in uncomfortable areas and is not afraid to receive the ball with opposition near by. Completed 81.52% of 38.69 attempted Short Passes. The most eye catching part of his game, is his drives with ball at feet from defense down the U’s right hand side, number 1 in League 1 Center Backs for progressive runs at a league high 2.66 Progressive Runs per 90. Would be an absolutely ideal fit with his wide range of abilities and skills to fit in on the right of Russell Martin’s back 3. Would probably be out of range financially without a Cabango sale with 2 years left on his contract and stiff competition from elsewhere. Would I sell Cabango for £4m if it meant signing McNally for £2m? Yes in the current system as an overall fit, I think I just would.
Option 2: Di’Shon Bernard
Team: Hull City, English Championship. (On Loan from Manchester United)
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2026
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan. Probably too much for a permanent so would be ruled out even with a Cabango sale.
Overview: A player who would add serious pace along with aggressive defending to Swansea’s backline. Nearly sure he clocked the fastest sprint speed of all Championship players in 2021/22. Such pace would be a massive asset in defensive recoveries and dealing with penetrative runs behind the high Swansea backline. Possession wise, fairly solid across the board with his passing and in terms of purposeful passes ranks around average at the moment at Championship level with Forward Passes (17.15 p/90) and Progressive Passes (8.15 p/90). Short passing is comfortable for Bernard, to be expected from a Manchester United academy graduate. Also excels at carrying the ball out of defense as highlighted by his Progressive Runs (1.08 p/90), 2.31 Offensive Duels at 61.67% completion, and 0.88 Dribbles per game. Bernard is excellent in ground duels, succeeding in 73.44% of 7.38 Defensive Duels but less so Aerially with a 55.86% success rate. Overall would be a really good complimentary, stylistically, addition to the backline. Was talk of a permanent back to Hull, prompting perhaps he could be available for a low fee but I do not believe this to be the case but a season-long loan could definitely be possible.
Option 3: Mark McKenzie
Team: KRC Genk, Belgium Pro League.
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: Loan with Option to Buy or around £2.5m-£3m fee.
Overview: On the whole since joining Genk for £4.5m from Philadelphia Union in 2020, has not probably preformed as expected of his capabilities or the underlying data suggests based off media reports and therefore could be within targeting range for Swansea with a Ben Cabango sale. His ambidexterity would be of massive use, being equally comfortable on both feet. Very forward thinking and accurate with his pass, 23.57 Forward Passes at 80% accuracy per 90 puts him the top 5% for Belgian Pro League CB’s. McKenzie looks to progress the ball through passing as opposed to carrying it out from the back. Very good in challenges too, 71.7% Defensive Duel success and despite only being 1.84m, his jump reach has allowed him to win 64.62% of Aerial Duels. As outlined aerial and defensive ability is in need in the Swansea back line. Unsure if a Loan + Option may be possible or an outright fee less than his previous one would be possible for the 8 time USA international but definitely worth an enquiry if the scenario of Cabango leaving unfolds.
Option 4: Ryan Porteous
Team: Hibernian, Scottish Premiership
Wages: £2.5k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £1m
Overview: Excellent underlying numbers both defensively and in possession. Porteous is a very aggressive and physically dominant center back but equally as good on the ball. Shows decent mobility, perhaps not as athletic as others but could play RCB or CB in the current set up. Aerially, he would add a lot, amongst the top 5% in the Scottish Premiership for Aerial Duel success at 69.23%. Above league average for ground duel attempts and win rate. Excellent at reading the game at an almost league high PADJ. Interception 9.14 per 90. Ball playing wise, per 90, attempts 55.42 Passes at 85.34% accuracy, very progressive too progressing the ball out from defense, 12.32 Progressive Passes and 0.75 Progressive Runs a game. Porteous can too hit it long if necessary, posting impressive 56.41% Long Passing accuracy. Superbly rounded young center back, with just 1 year remaining on his deal so more than likely available for a cut price fee.
Option 5: Luke Woolfenden
Team: Ipswich, English League 1.
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: £2m-£2.5m
Overview: Just signed a new contract mid piece so highly unlikely but will still include or future reference. All the talk of League 1 center back options tends to revolve around either Harry Darling or Luke McNally but Woolfenden has slightly gone under the radar and is another ball playing center back in League 1 with a high ceiling. Firstly, unbelievable at winning Defensive Duels ranking in the 98th percentile at a 80.13% success rate! 1.93m so as expected solid aerially too, winning above that 60% threshold. Nonchalant on the ball too, happy to take the ball in uncomfortable positions and lay off passes- clocking at 85.29% Short Passing accuracy. Around the league average in volume of progressive running but as seen vs Rotherham recently where he ran the whole pitch with ball at feet, he is capable of mixing up his forward thinking actions from the back. Could played at RCB or CB in Swansea’s back 3 and is fairly mobile. Has a longer contract at Ipswich so would be at the very least £2m if not more, but I see similarities with Flynn Downes in the sense they are both at Ipswich Town obviously, but their underlying ability has gone under the radar for below par performances at times and being in England’s third tier.
Option 6: Michael Rose
Team: Coventry, English Championship.
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £1.5m
Overview: I would argue, ability wise Rose is capable of surpassing his current underlying metrics but is a player I have admired for a number of seasons since his Ayr United days in the Scottish Championship. An ultra progressive, forward thinking passer, 23.34 Forward Passes and 9.83 Progressive Passes per 90 this season. Can switch it long better than most of his counterparts, 56% Long Passing accuracy but equally precise playing short at 85.26%. Concerns if he were to join would be the fact that his Aerial ability is not fantastic 53.03% win rate, a key current concern at the club. Decent 1v1 and is mobile but his strengths definitely lie ball playing wise. Only has a year left on his Coventry contract which makes him without doubt one to monitor closely.
Conclusion: Luke McNally has to be considered the #1 target to fulfil any potential Ben Cabango Sale. Fits the role like a glove. Given the desirable qualities of the role in higher pyramid sides, securing a player of such will prove very difficult. Di’Shon Bernard on a season-long loan would be a temporary fix but of high quality. Mark McKenzie has been mixed in Belgium but another who fits the bill. Luke Woolfenden does not perhaps posses the same level of athleticism as the others but nonetheless a sufficient fit but has signed a new contract. Ryan Porteous is a similar more attainable alternative to Woolfenden. Coventry man Michael Rose would be shrewd. Other center half targets previously profiled such as Darling, Clarke-Salter, Lavalee, Vanlerberge, Odenthal and Ferraresi could too be watched as Cabango replacements.
CENTRAL MIDFIELD: FLYNN DOWNES REPLACEMENT:
Overview: The second most likely man to depart the club for a significant transfer fee this summer, plans should be in place to move quickly in the eventuality of an exit.
Criteria: Mentioned above, pair David Kasumu and Andy Rinomhota could be considered budget replacements for Flynn Downes. However even at that, another will need to be added regardless. Players of Downes’ skillset are key in a heavy possession system without the ball. Being quick and defensively efficient to close down opposition following turnovers and transitions is something in which Downes’ exit would leave a gaping hole. His drives from midfield with the ball also provided a high-quality trait to move up the field and transfer from defense into attack. Not to mention his level of calmness and quality in possession. Summed up, a central midfielder who is defensively excellent, technically equipped to pass the ball comfortably 60/70 times per game all while being quick and agile. A progressive ball carrier, if possible, too.
Finances: Flynn Downes Sale at £8m-£10m, £0-£4m reinvested in the position, outgoings would hopefully push the boat past £2m.
Option 1: Vinicius Souza
Team: KV Mechelen, Belgium Pro League. (On Loan from Lommel SK)
Wages: £2k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: £2.5m-£3.5m
Overview: A hugely talented, premium option, central midfielder playing in Belgium. Souza is arguably the best Pro League central midfielder off the ball. Ranks number on for both Successful Defensive actions (16.01 per 90) and PAdj Interceptions (11.24 per 90) while in the 98th percentile for Defensive Duels engaged and too winning 65.25% of the enormous 10.5 attempts a game. Good aerially too. In short, a defensive monster. Is relatively comfortable in possession without getting too carried away or exciting with his ball playing. Completes 84.46% of 44.57 Short Passes per 90 and ranks above average for more forward-thinking passing metrics like Progressive Passes, Forward Passes and Passes to the final 1/3. However, is still room for development in this department, something of which Swansea City could definitely offer. Athletically and mobility wise, Souza is quite good and can certainly get around the pitch. Would be quite expensive and only possible through a Downes and Piroe sale, while will have higher ranked competition vying for his signature.
Option 2: Abdou Harroui
Team: Sassuolo Italian Serie A. (On Loan from Sparta Rotterdam?)
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: -
Est. Cost: £2m-£2.5m
Overview: Unsure of what the situation is with him at Sassuolo, may sign given the amount of substitute appearances he played for an option of £2.5m in his loan deal but it has not worked out for him in Italy and could still possibly be purchased from either club for a similar fee. As a central midfielder, Harroui can pretty much do it all and can play a wide range of midfield roles given his skillset and was simply exceptional at Sparta Rotterdam in the 2020/21 campaign, a data dream. A ridiculous ball carrier, attempting the most Dribbles at 6.04 per game with a hugely impressive 2.24 Progressive Runs also. Given Downes’ tendencies to do likewise, it is a nice trait to excel in. Grimes would probably have to be more conservative in a midfield pivot with Harroui given his high-high attacking and defensive style but is still excellent off the ball, winning 64.73% of 8.74 Defensive Duels but probably does not read the game as well as Downes. With regards to his attacking profile, he attempts lots of shots and scored 6 goals in the 2020/21 season and created 0.10XA per 90. An all-action midfielder who would be a different in some ways but likewise in others, Downes replacement.
Option 3: Adem Zorgane
Team: Charleroi, Belgium Pro League
Wages: £2k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: £3m-£4m
Overview: A very optimistic inclusion given he will probably cost £3m-£4m at the minimum, but if Piroe and Downes are sold for £25m combined who knows? Not as aggressive defensively as Downes nor does Zorgane read the game as well, but an outstanding talent. Given a Kasumu or Rinomhota arrival alongside Grimes, like Harroui a double pivot with Grimes could see Matt have to be more conservative, which again is not a bad thing. Zorgane still wins 59.91% of his 7.47 Defensive Duels and his PAdj. Interception numbers rank below average at 11.24 per 90. However, it is in possession in which Zorgane excels. Completes a high volume of Short Passes at 84.39% of 56 attempts while is also excellent at switching the play and going longer- amongst the best in Belgium, at 66.92% accuracy of 4.69 Long Passes per 90. Can too progress the ball and break lines with his passing and running power. A complete midfielder who would thrive in a Swansea City side.
Option 4: Ronaldo Viera
Team: Sampdoria, Italian Serie A
Wages: £20k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £1m
Overview: An opportunistic and not a data driven inclusion for the former Leeds man. Fair to say he has not fulfilled his potential and ability since joining Sampdoria in 2018. Injuries have massively hindered him and would represent a huge risk. Risks can often lead to great rewards and a fit Ronaldo Viera is amongst the best central midfielders in the league. His data does not paint a full picture of his abilities and is being compared to some top central Italian midfielders whilst being out of form. Excellent athletically and physically, strong in challenges who can read the game well and stop opposition attacks. All whilst being comfortable in possession. He could fit the Flynn Downes’ role with ease, injuries aside. Given the fact he has one year on his deal he will more than likely be available for a bargain fee, mitigating some risk but would have to reduce his salary to fit the structure. Sheffield United did pull out of a deal for him last summer which is quite concerning but on a low fee alongside someone like Kasumu it could be worth the risk.
Option 5: Jack Taylor
Team: Peterborough United, English League 1
Wages: £2.5k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £1.5m
Overview: A central midfielder who does a bit of everything and his data is quite impressive if you take into account it was for relegated side Peterborough. Would not be my first choice by any means but could prove cheaper than others and more attainable and feel he could thrive in what Flynn Downes does at Swansea. Defensively he is probably better than the numbers suggest, per 90 underlying figures read as 6.25 Defensive Duels with 56.28% success and 5.32 PADJ. Interceptions. Taylor has a nice athletic and physical profile and covers a lot of ground. Likewise, is stronger than the numbers suggest at carrying the ball by means of Progressive Runs (0.58 p/90) but does excel in Dribbling figures, 1.49 per 90 with 65.91% success. I would not be surprised to see his underlying numbers rocket in a Swansea City side. Comfortable technically, 80.07% Passing success and despite receiving the ball less than most, surpasses the 60% percentile mark in key passing metrics like Progressive Passes (6.32 p/90), Passes to the Final Third (6.14 p/90) and Progressive Passes (6.32 p/90). Always like players who perform above average in below average sides. Darragh McAnthony and Peterborough drive a hard bargain which would be the only real test in getting Taylor in.
Further Options: As said, David Kasumu or Andy Rinomhota profiled above could too be considered budget Flynn Downes replacements.
Conclusion: Abdou Harroui if available following his loan arrangement fits the bill, and would up there with my number one choice, just offers a lot all round at the fee required. Adem Zorgane is a slightly more expensive solution and could be difficult to secure but again offers lovely, rounded ability. A more defensively robust option would be Vinicius Souza, again could be quite expensive even with Piroe and Downes both leaving. Ronaldo Viera would be a very risky option given his history record but his availably for a below value/ability fee could be tempting. Jack Taylor definitely comes into contention. Kasumu and Rinomhota budget options.
STRIKER/ATTACKING MIDFIELD: JOEL PIROE REPLACEMENT:
Overview: The most likely departure this summer, but there are attractive options, home and abroad should he leave. A £15m+ fee could go someway to balancing financial accounts as well as a proportion being reinvested in the playing squad.
Criteria: Ideally a highly efficient forward with a well-rounded game who can play in both attacking midfield and striker roles. Obafemi will lead the line so will more so start of in either attacking midfielder position and therefore should be very comfortable on the ball have sufficient link up play between midfield and forward lines. Given Piroe’s 22 League goals, there would be a massive goal-scoring void to fill. Obafemi could go someway to filling this over a season as could the potential recruits mentioned previously but its clear any replacement should be capable of 10/15 goals at the minimum over the course of the 2022/23 campaign.
Finances: Piroe Sale at £15m-£18m, £1m-£5m reinvested.
Option 1: Scott Twine
Team: MK Dons, English League 1.
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £4m/£5m, an unknown low release clause the only hope.
Overview: A highly, highly unlikely replacement it must be emphasized but the perfect heir to Piroe. Both rank amongst the best in the EFL for goals outside the box and such a weapon can be key in tight games at unlocking low blocks. His output speaks for itself, 20 goals and 13 assists in League 1. A one man attacking wrecking ball with a multi-tier range of attacking attributes he can use. Twine can score, create and dribble as well as dropping deeper and linking play whilst too running in behind and offering opposition defenses and alternative threat. Underlying numbers are not required to boast Twine’s profile but notable inclusions per 90 are 0.26XG, 0.17XA, 3 Shots, 3.53 Dribbles and 80.79% of Passes accurate. He is the ultimate EFL attacking threat. Russell Martin signed him once before against all the odds. Would cost around 1/3 of Piroe sale unless he has a lower release clause as Matt O’Riley did. There will be huge competition for his signing this summer , I suspect Premier League sides may even try and whilst it’s a very unlikely signing, stranger things have happened and would not 100% rule it out, probably 99% with a large Piroe sale and if the likes of Obafemi, Downes and Cabango were sold on. Very unlikely however, but had to include him.
Option 2: Zian Flemming
Team: Fortuna Sittard, Dutch Eredivise
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £1.5m-£2m
Overview: A smart operator, Flemming scores goals, be that as a striker or in a slightly reserved role he can play both. Scored 12 goals this season that in the last campaign. Can score a range of goals too and has good goal scoring instincts, 0.35XG per 90 in the 2021/22 season. Quite sharp technically too, was amongst the tidiest on the ball in terms of completing passes, 79% of 18.36 attempted Passes and linked up play nicely being one of the better Eredivise strikers at getting the ball into dangerous areas when dropping deep, 1.71 Passes into the Penalty area and 0.09XA per 90, showcasing some good link up play. Flemming is tall and excellent in the air at a league high Aerial win rate of strikers at 56.3%, whilst showing reasonable mobility and movement. Can dribble and beat a man 1v1 also. Basically you have a lovely rounded forward who can play in a variety of positions, has good technical ability and scores goals. For the fee I suspect he would be available for around £1.5m-£2m, it is as good a Piroe replacement around. Won’t score 20+ goals but you could bet on him scoring 10+ whilst contributing elsewhere.
Option 3: Irvin Cardona
Team: Stade Brestois, French Ligue 1.
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £1.5m-£2.5m
Overview: Another forward, that could operate centrally or in either attacking midfield roles that can do a bit of everything. Only scored 4 League goals this campaign but bagged 8 last year and does offer first and foremost a goal threat and can score off both feet and with his head. Finished this season with 0.22XG per game. Is more than goals, can create too in fact at 0.10XA per 90. Solid technically also and looks comfortable on the ball, despite below par passing metrics and just 68.65% of Passes completed. Likes to play balls across the box and between defenders. His physical and athletic profile is fairly complete and has a turn of pace that he uses in 1v1 dribbles and running behind defenders whilst equally being competent dropping deep to receive the ball. Given that Cardona has just 1 year left on his contract, would be an astute cut price Joel Piroe replacement and offers a lot for a £1.5m-£2.5m fee and is just 24 years old to add to this so would have potential resale value, whilst currently being on a modest salary.
Option 4: Callum Lang
Team: Wigan, English Championship
Wages: £6k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: £3m-£4m
Overview: Wigan’s promotion probably ends hope with Lang as a potential replacement for Piroe and most certainly inflates his price tag. However, it may not be impossible and would be a smart pick up. Been quality for a number of seasons now but really came to the forefront this campaign as the spear of the Latics promotion. Lang is more of a wide player than others shortlisted but can play more centrally and potentially fill in Piroe’s recent right channel operating position. Does not get involved in build up play as much either but is a very potent attacker and got himself 15 goals and 10 assists in League 1 in 2021/22. Was involved in 0.23XG and 0.12XA per 90, representing a cutthroat attacking edge. Quick and direct runner in 1v1 Dribbles, he attempted 7.05 per 90 and was amongst the 87th percentile in comparison to League 1 attackers. Perhaps a difficult deal to sort and there are cheaper options but would be a solid Piroe replacement, it has to be said.
Option 5: Jens Odgaard
Team: RKC Waalwijk, Dutch Eredivise. (On Loan from US Sassuolo)
Wages: £2.5k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £1.5m-£2m
Overview: Not particularly quick or an outright goal threat, but Odgaard who operates primarily in the right forward channel but can play across the forward line, is a lovely crafted attacker. He is a high volume ball carrier, attempting 7.47 Dribbles and 2.05 Progressive Runs per 90, number 1 in the Netherlands for dribbles. As well as this he is creative, number one for smart passes and too had 0.12XA a game. Excellent at playing lethal through balls for teammates, Obafemi? Has low passing accuracy numbers at 63.03% but is always looking to play that killer ball. Some of his clips this season are a joy to watch. Goal-scoring, Jens still managed 8 goals while accumulating 0.29XG per game too. Much more than a central forward who has an eye for a long shot. Only has one year left on his deal in Italy and with uncertainty over his future could be available on a very tempting financial proposition.
Option 6: Florian Kruger
Team: Arminia Bielefeld, German 2.Bundesliga ( Relegated from Bundesliga)
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: £1.5m-£2m
Overview: Yet another I watched a lot of in the German second tier in 2020 when COVID-19 meant German football was the only live football available. Kruger too got a move to the Bundesliga transferring from Erzgebirge Aue to Bielefeld but only managed a single goal this year. Was excellent before, a lovely rounded forward who mostly plays off the left of a main striker but can fill in across the front line. Scored 11 goals and had a 0.31XG but is more than goals. Not a high volume shooter like Piroe but accurate when he does pull the trigger. Quick at 6'1 and often times his runs bending in from the left to find himself amongst chances. Creative and able to link play also, per 90- 0.17XA and other high ranking possession metrics such as Passes to Penalty area and Smart Passes highlight this. Kruger can too carry the ball and beat a man 1v1, 4 attempted Dribbles and 2.45 Progressive Runs per 90. Bielefeld may want to keep him around following their relegation but I believe he could be picked up for a modest fee.
Option 7: Josh Koroma
Team: Huddersfield Town, English Championship
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £1m
Overview: Decided to use his impressive 2020–21 metrics as opposed to his poorer 21/22 version to showcase his abilities and talent. Was excellent in a very poor Huddersfield side the previous season. Koroma scored 8 goals in 20 games and had an XG per 90 of 0.36, nearly the best amongst Championship forwards. A high volume shooter like Piroe, attempting a league attacker high of 3 Shots per game and can too score from distance. Comfortable dribbler and ball carrier too, 60.2% Dribbling success was better than most. Does not get too involved in build up play, but can suffice in that regard whenever called upon. Koroma could cover all three forward positions and possess athleticism to test opposition defenders in behind. Given that he is out of favor and form at the Terriers along with 12 months remaining on his current deal, it would be smart succession planning on a budget to replace Piroe, despite recent woes. Not to mention, recently appointed Swansea Head of Football Operations, Josh Marsh signed him whilst occupying Head of recruitment at Huddersfield Town.
Option 8 Bonus: Jordan Larsson
Team: AIK, Swedish Allsvenskan. (On Loan from Spartak Moscow)
Wages: £25k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: An extremely optimistic and opportunistic bonus inclusion. Perhaps edges on the slight morally wrong inclusion given the fact his availability hinges off a War. Media reports from Sweden claim he will be allowed to leave on a free transfer this summer, and for a player once linked with £10m moves to Europe’s Top 5 Leagues he may not have such opportunities as he has been out of form in the past 12 months. His wages would represent a concern along with the obvious feasibility of a deal but the same could have been said about Wolf and Ntcham, and Larsson would represents a similar coup and deal. An excellent footballer who covers all front line roles but plays his best football in a role similar to that of Piroe at Swansea. Would offer a goal threat scoring 15 goals in 29 games and 0.44XG per 90. Can link up play nicely, either simply laying off at 80.56% accuracy or providing a creative spark, impressing in that aspect with 0.21XA a game. Larsson is skillful alongside a high output forward and does like to dribble and carry the ball too, 3.48 Dribbles per game succeeding in 50.98% was better than most Russian Premier League strikers. His talents are known, much less clearer is the chances Swansea would have of signing him.
Conclusion: The obvious candidate at face value is Scott Twine. Although I do highly doubt it is in the realms of possibilities even with a massive sale like Piroe. Would the club risk a £4m-£5m outright fee, unless he has a clause, on one player and could we compete financially with fellow no-doubt long list of suitors. Will be Premier League interest too. Although making the case for MK Dons and Russell Martin last summer, you could have argued similar points about them signing him. More realistic favorable continental options include Irvin Cardona for Ligue 1 side Brest. Zian Flemming would be slightly cheaper but has posted good output and should be heavily considered too, alongsidethe differential striker shortlist option, if Piroe leaves. Jens Odgaard is a promising Eredivisie performer . Following Wigan’s promotion, Lang would prove difficult both financially and convincing him personally to depart Wigan, but not out of the realms of possibilities and would offer a different style to Piroe but a productive forward. Given links to new man Marsh and 2020/21 performances, Josh Koroma is a solid pick. A left field, economic pick Florian Kruger struggling in the top tier of Germany this season has produced in the past but provide less guarantee of impact. Jordan Larsson, a hugely opportunistic and perhaps very optimistic option would almost guarantee successful succession planning. His precarious situation and drop in form is the only factors in favor but will still probably get a more high profile move.
STRIKER: MICHAEL OBAFEMI REPLACEMENT
Overview: Had he played a full season we would be taking about a £15m-£20m move, although this is not the case. Has and will tract rumblings of interest but is likely to stay on as Swansea’s main striker another season at least. I feel clubs will watch him closely over the next 6–12 months and monitor his form and fitness before striking a healthy profit for the club.
Criteria: Russell Martin likes a striker stretching the play, which creates a host of additional problems for opposition defenses and adds an element of unpredictably, a different dimension in attack and creates more room for his attacking midfield duo. A striker capable of stretching defenses with penetrating runs in behind along with neat link up play when coming short as well as being a goal scorer and having that natural ability to be in the right place at the right time as Obafemi has.
Finances: Obafemi Sale at £8m-£10m, £0–3m reinvested.
Option 1: Fashion Sakala
Team: Rangers, Scottish Premiership
Wages: £8k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: £2m-£3m
Overview: Has not quite performed to the levels the graphic may give at first glance, playing just 1,166 minutes since signing on a free transfer from Oostende last summer. His lack of game time could make him a possible Obafemi contingency target for a modest fee I would suspect. Sakala is not the most technical of forwards but would mirror Obafemi’s electric pace and enable Swansea to continue posing that duel threat of balls in behind whilst having the players in front of the opposition defense to cause problems likewise. He will score goals, scored 7 League goals in limited minutes whilst accumulating an XG of 0.36 per 90. Was a high volume dribbler attempting 8.09 Dribbles and 5.24 Progressive Runs but often needs space to run at to be effective in that sense. Also surprisingly ranked as the best SPL forward in terms of Expected Assists (0.24 per/90) and Key Passes (0.84 /per 90), whilst posting favorable defensive metrics. Overall, would be as good a player to replicate Obafemi’s profile and output at probably a 1/3 of what Obafemi would be sold for.
Option 2: Josh Maja
Team: Stoke City, English Championship (On Loan from Bordeaux)
Wages: £15k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £1.5m
Overview: Hardly set the world alight with Stoke in the second half of this season, in fact was quite poor. However, has one year left on his contract at Bordeaux who have just been relegated from Ligue 1 and is a player with underlying capabilities. Should be available on a cheap fee. Has a nice physical profile that allows him to test defenders resolves dropping deep and in behind but only scored 1 goal at Stoke and had a low per 90 XG of 0.18. Was quite creative at 0.15XA and highly ranked Key Passes a game whilst also neat in possession completing 77.39% of 21 Passes per 90. Would be a slight risk as an Obafemi replacement with his sub par performance levels in recent years but a potential high value player if a tune could be gotten out of him. The kind of player who needs confidence and trust to show his true colors.
Option 3: Folarin Balogun
Team: Middlesbrough, English Championship. (On Loan from Arsenal)
Wages: £30k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan
Overview: In general not a huge fan of replacing assets with loans, but finances abiding sometimes it is a requirement. Balogun is a hugely talented player who has definitely performed below his goal-scoring expectation but at Middlesbrough there was a lot to like outside of this on just his first loan spell. Was creative relative to other Championship strikers, had 0.09XA per 90 and accurate in possession 82.89% accuracy of 18.93 Passes on the whole. Managed just 3 goals and 0.27XG per 90. Balogun is quick and often looks to run in behind but as seen can mix it up. Scored 75 goals in 103 youth appearances for Arsenal so does have goal-scoring pedigree. Would not be against Balogun as a temporary Obafemi replacement if other targets were deemed to expensive or not possible, could definitely do a lot worse.
Option 4: Ragnar Ache
Team: Eintracht Frankfurt, German Bundesliga.
Wages: £5k p/w
Contract: 2025
Est. Cost: £1m-£1.5m
Overview: Has only played 248 minutes in the Bundesliga this season, with just 92 last season so there is little point in using data for Ache. However, from the clips I have seen of him he looks promising and is a physical monster. 6'2 , strong, very quick and has a phenomenal jumping reach. Signed from Sparta Rotterdam for £1.5m two years ago after impressing briefly in the Eredivisie and at Youth level and given his lack of minutes should be able to be picked up for a similar fee this summer. A left field, risky choice but possess the attributes to fill the Obafemi gap and could be an undervalued find.
Overview: I do not think Obafemi will depart so have not delved into too much detail in his potential predecessor. Out of the shortlist, Fashion Sakala would be my prime target to replace Obafemi if he departed. The prospect of being a starting striker at a promotion chasing squad could lure him and Rangers may well replace, but questions could be asked of either. Balogun on loan from Arsenal despite his mixed Middlesbrough showings is the budget pick of choice. Josh Maja another who has struggled in recent times, but such struggles allow him within our financial bite. Ache would be a rather risky option. Max Watters fits the bill also but given he is a Cardiff City player you would think that is a no go. Another not outlined who I like is former Celtic, Polish striker, Patryk Klimala playing his trade in the MLS for New York Red Bulls. but Definitely has the profile to replace Obafemi but is most certainly out of the price range as he signed for £4m just 12 months ago.
CENTRAL MIDFIELD: MATT GRIMES REPLACEMENT
Overview: Very Likely to stay.
Criteria: Sound defensively, top quality technical attributes, knit play together in midfield, thrive playing 80/90 passes per game, excel at progressing the ball through penetrative passes.
Finances: Matt Grimes Sale at £4m-£5m, £0–3m reinvested in the position.
Option 1: Lewis Ferguson
Team: Aberdeen, Scottish Premiership
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £2.5m-£3.5m
Overview: Starting off with a highly ambitious but equally unlikely coup in Ferguson. With large sales elsewhere and Grimes departure would still deem this one unlikely but despite being a different profile of player to Grimes, could definitely see him fitting nicely as a midfield duo with Flynn Downes. Perhaps not as much of a dictator of play as Grimes, although is still quality technically and can break lines with his passing and progress the ball as Matt does. Completed 84.28% of 50.07 Short Passes and ranged around the 75th percentile for key passing metrics such as Progressive Passes (7.22 per 90), Passes to the Final Third (7.66 per 90) and Passes to the Penalty Area (2.68 per 90) Would also see a lot more of the ball in a Swansea City side. What Ferguson does surpass Grimes in is his overall athletic profile. A tireless, mobile worker who works equally as hard both ways and would excel in the more advanced role Grimes has played under Russell pressing higher up the pitch and using these physical capabilities. Defensive metrics include 6.64 Defensive Duels with a success rate of 63.27%. Goals are another part of Fergusons game derived from his High-High work rate and scored an impressive 9 from midfield with 0.32XG per 90. An unlikely capture in the event of the captain leaving but to be noted in case of any developments on both ends.
Option 2: Cameron Brannagan
Team: Oxford, English League 1
Wages: £4.5k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £1m
Overview: A far more likely and reasonable Matt Grimes replacement than Lewis Ferguson and Brannagan shares some similar traits to the Scot, albeit at less quality and resale value but still a very good player, far too good for League 1. Has a high box-to-box work rate like Ferguson and too can score goals, 14 in League 1 this season with 5 coming from the penalty spot and a solid 0.25XG from midfield. Ranks similarly for passing metrics like Passes to the Final Third (7.41 p/90), Passes to the Penalty Area (3.36 p/90) and Progressive Passes (8.71 p/90). Is capable of similar passing patterns to Grimes and comfortable with a high volume of passes per game as Oxford tend to offer. Defensively sound, engaging in slightly above league average Defensive Duels with 6.84 attempts at 56.36% victory. Brannagan has just one year left on his deal so could be available for a very modest sum, and has the quality to make the jump to top half championship football.
Option 3: Dan Barlaser
Team: Rotherham United, English Championship
Wages: £6k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £1m-£1.5m
Overview: Laser by name, Laser by nature. Not as high energy as other options but similar in the sense he has an eye for goal and can fulfil his attacking and defensive duties. Playing in a very direct Rotherham United side, his passing accuracy numbers are low at 74.71%, largely skewed by the Millers style. He is very good technically. Excels at progressing the ball from deep and was amongst the very best in League 1 for Progressive Passes in which he attempted 8.71 a game, Passes to the Final 1/3 at (9.61 p/90) and Passes to the Penalty Area with (3.36 p/90) Concerns could lie at adapting from two polar opposite styles, especially in the center of midfield but I believe he has the technical capabilities to thrive. Scored 5 non-penalty goals too and created 0.14XA per 90 adding some attacking bonus into his game. Considering he enters the final year of his contract he may be available for a low ball fee.
Conclusion: Three quality technical players. Ferguson would offer something slightly different and offer an attacking threat, as would Brannagan. Barlaser is more similar to grimes in his line breaking balls and excellent passing range. My original number one option Maxime D’Arpino at Oostende in Belgium unfortunately tore his ACL and will be out for 7–8 months but looked an ideal fit for a fee in the region of £1.5m. However, Grimes is nearly definitely staying. Ryan Ledson just missed out.
ATTACKING MIDFIELD: OLIVIER NTCHAM REPLACEMENTS
Overview: Will likely stay but suspect he may attract interest from the likes of France and Germany.
Criteria: Would go for a more attack minded player than Ntcham, who is more comfortable slightly deeper than his current role. A quicker, creative and goal scoring flair player who can excite when in possession and offer differential attributes to current options.
Finances: Oliver Ntcham Sale at £1.5m-£2.5m, £1m-£2m reinvested
Option 1: Oladapo Afolayan
Team: Bolton Wanderers, English League 1.
Wages: £2.5k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: £1.5m
Overview: Linked with the likes of Rangers for a £1.5m switch in recent weeks, would definitely have Afolayan come into consideration if an Ntcham sale occurred. Not as comfortable deeper as Ntcham but far more penetrative and destructive in the opposition third. Would be perfect if 4–3–3 was used. Is quick and skillful and loves to take on defenders 1v1 combining skill and speed to succeed. Was amongst the very highest in League 1 Attacker’s at Dribble attempts, 8.7 per 90 and 53.05% success rate. Combines this with good goal scoring instincts and finishes, 14 goals and 0.24XG per 90 justifying such. Is a capable creator too, 0.17XA per 90 and often looks to either shoot, being the highest volume shooter in his the comparison metrics, create or travel with the ball. Would add some much needed drive, speed and decisive, attacking prowess to the Swansea attack.
Option 2: Ovie Ejaria
Team: Reading FC, English Championship
Wages: £15k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: Given Readings Precarious Financial Position, maybe £1.5m-£2.5m
Overview: A player far more capable than the underlying metrics suggest and has underlying huge talent. Yet another optimistic inclusion especially at the quoted price given Reading paid £3.5m for Ejaria just 12 months ago but with their well documented financial issues he could be poached for cheap. An aesthetically pleasing footballer on the eye who possess wonderful natural skill and flair ability, his Dribble attempts are lower than previous seasons at 4.46 per 90 but could easily be the leading candidate in the dribbling field. His attacking output has been poor in 2021/22 too, just 2 goals and 0.02XA & 0.07XG per 90. However, anyone who watched Ejaria knows with improved decision making these numbers could implode and a Championship side could have a £10m+ player on their hands if they play their cards right. Would be excellent in either attacking midfielder role at Swansea and see himself getting on plenty of the ball. If possible at the fee outlined would be at essence a straight swap for Ntcham for a similarly inconsistent highly talented footballer.
Option 3: Emre Mor
Team: Faith Karagumruk, Turkish Super Lig. (On Loan from Celta Vigo)
Wages: £6k p/w
Contract: 2022
Est. Cost: £0
Overview: Perhaps another controversial , highly hopeful inclusion to replace Ntcham but stranger things have happened. His natural ability is world wide documented, as is his off field issues but seems to have turned a corner in his recent Turkish expedition and is a soon to be free agent. Could he potentially be lured to South Wales as the likes of Ntcham and Wolf have been & managed with the same level of man management and personal development as we have seen Russell do to the likes of Michael Obafemi? Who knows but if this were to unfold it could prove an unlikely masterstroke. Playing wise, Mor is an outstanding flair dribbler and on his day run the show at Championship level, attempted 8.76 Dribbles at 56.83% this campaign. Is creative too once beating a man, creating 0.20XA per 90. Technically, very very good and would fit with ease receiving the ball 40/50+ times a match at Swansea and capable of maintaining controlled possession in the opposition half. Got into reasonable goal scoring positions at a rate of 0.29XG per 90. In conclusion, his off field problems and personality burden would obviously give high reason for caution as would the feasibility of convincing him to join the club but on a free transfer, reasonable wages, offering something like a year deal with the option of an additional, might just work. Might.
Conclusion: Another unlikely departure. Afoloyan would be my top choice if Ntcham departed and if the finances either side of both deals are around what has been outlined it should be possible. I have opted for two risky inconsistent talents in Ejaria and Mor, who would require further investigation off the field wise, while Ejaria could be poached for a reasonable fee. Other attacking midfielder options mentioned previously in the piece could be considered also.
ATTACKING MIDFIELD: JAMIE PATERSON REPLACEMENTS
Overview: The January contract dispute added uncertainty to Paterson’s long term Swansea prospects, but if the managers words are anything to go by, he should stay with an improved contract. However, wouldn’t completely rule out a departure, given rivals will be alerted and the instant quality he would provide for a modest fee.
Criteria: Like Paterson, Goals and Assists. His 18 combined would dent the attacking ranks, put lightly. A creative smart operator in tight spaces and comfortable at dropping into midfield and in the opposition box. A goal threat appreciated too.
Finances: Jamie Paterson Sale at £500k, similar amount reinvested
Option 1: Emiliano Marcondes
Team: Bournemouth, English Premier League.
Wages: £15k p/w
Contract: 2024
Est. Cost: Season-Long Loan or Bournemouth may consider a low price £750k sale.
Overview: One I wanted Swansea to sign last summer from Brentford, but since it is fair to say that it has not worked out for him at Bournemouth, being limited to just 785 minutes of league football. Given Bournemouth’s promotion to the Premier League, its quite likely he will be leaving and made available. What kind of deal or finances required could be debated. Have an inkling it could be for a low fee. Posted some impressive numbers with his low league minutes. Of note, impressive attacking metrics like 0.32XG and 0.16XA. Capable of getting the ball in the box for his teammates and dropping into deeper positions to get on the ball, as Paterson does. Would be comfortable receiving the ball in Swansea’s build up and retaining possession whilst also replicating that key Paterson forward thinking threat. Marcondes is now 27 and still has not reached his full potential in English football. I do however believe he would flourish at Swansea and be perfectly capable of filling any Paterson gap.
Option 2: Dino Hotic
Team: Cercle Brugge, Belgian Pro League
Wages: £4k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £500k
Overview: Very much a data driven choice and caught my eye at the volume of attacking productivity he gets through on such little ball relative to others compared, 29 Passes per 90. Under Russell, this would increase significantly and makes me wonder what he would be like with even more possession. This does not categorically mean he would excel even further but its a plausible observation. Could be less suited to heavy build up play, have not watched enough to make a distinct call in that regard. What I have seen, I do like. Just 1.68m and not very quick but very agile and sharp with the ball at his feet and loves a long shot goal. Ferrie Bodde? 7 goals and 11 assists is not be sniffed at, with 0.34XA per 90. With his limited ball time he is proficient at progressing the ball and committing positive attacking actions, with some levels of inaccuracy it must be said. Such as 4.66 Passes to the Final 1/3 at a 61.36% success rate. Has just a year remaining at Brugge, low wages and clear attacking ability. Could be worth further investigation.
Option 3: Marcus Harness
Team: Portsmouth, English League 1
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £500k-£750k
Overview: Have been a long-term admirer of Harness’ abilities and has been tipped to make a move to South Wales in recent weeks, and one I had to fit in somewhere. Can play across the front line although plays his best football in central, slightly right role. Comfortable in tight spaces in possession without being overally quick to beat men 1v1, relying more so on his technical skill. Can create and score from withdrawn forward roles, getting himself a return of 11 goals and 6 assist’s alongside underlying data of 0.21XG and 0.13XA per 90. A high volume crosser and penetrative passer too, 4 Crosses, 4.9 Progressive Passes and 4.5 Passes to the Penalty Area on average in each Portsmouth game. Overall a well-rounded forward who won’t tear up the division but a good option alongside others to fill the attacking roles, seemingly available for a low price.
Conclusion: Like Ntcham, will probably be a Swansea City player come September 1st but not guaranteed by any means. Plans to replace him too cross similarities in outlined attacking midfielder selections previously, they could too be added to a drawn up replacement plan. Marcondes could well replace at a high quality, Hotic is more an unknown but looks interesting whilst Harness would be a safer, domestic choice.
Bonus: EFL future investments
Overview: We have seen Swansea invest transfer fee’s in recent years for ranging EFL talents such as Morgan Whittaker and Kyle Joseph. Unlikely to have any expendable cash outside more prominent requirements but will outline very briefly three potential EFL gems that could be signed and either loaned out or developed as squad players and sold for profit in future years.
Criteria: Under 21 year old EFL players with high ceilings.
Finances: Roughly £500k but less than £1m maximum.
Option 1: Paddy Lane
Team: Fleetwood Town, English League 1
Wages: £3k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £500k-£750k
Option 2: Udoka Godwin-Malife
Team: Forest Green Rovers, English League 1
Wages: £1.5k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £250k-£500k
Option 3: Tyreece Simpson
Team: Ipswich, English League 1
Wages: £1k p/w
Contract: 2023
Est. Cost: £350k-£500k
Final Thoughts:
What happens this summer at Swansea City, very much remains a mystery. Concluding a final look XI is like a jigsaw puzzle with the amount of scenarios and permutations that could unfold. An ideal scenario is an early window Joel Piroe sale for £15m upfront and reinvest £5m of that back into the playing squad whilst simultaneously filling any financial shortcomings. I would probably consider selling Ben Cabango if the right offer came to the table also. Past that, the likes of Downes, Grimes, Paterson, Ntcham and Obafemi could possibly leave but it can be hoped once Joel departs any additional sales, a decent 30%-40% proportion of a fee can be reinvested in a replacement and hedged across other positions. However these are all just assumptions and it could well be a bleaker picture behind the scenes with targets outlined being out of financial reach even with large sales and the free transfers and loan players mentioned the only possibilities. Although we have seen last summer that there is a willingness to invest in moderately expensive players should finances abide and let’s hope that is the case this summer. Here is 4potential squad depths for next season at £10m-£15m profit, £15m-£20m profit and £20m-£25m profit and 0 major sales, although it is fair to say you could probably make 50 combinations and these are just sample concepts created based on the observations described. Also I am aware payments are structured over a number of years and is not as simple as the math’s below describes.
Sample of brief finances of one possible scenario (£10m-£15m profit) :
It must be emphasized these are mere estimates of transfer fees, and the graphic above is a sample one of the many scenarios what could happen this summer. Overall, such a proposition presents £14.50m transfer profit whilst providing the level of playing squad I believe would enable a promotion push, whilst filling any financial holes.
Again, estimated wages used in the visualization but based off the figures provided and displayed, would result in wages out of £6.18m and wages in of £4.34m, representing a total wage cut of around £1.8m.
Potential Concept Squad Depth Chart:
Core Squad: A.Fisher, L.McNally, H.Darling, K.Naughton, R.Manning, J.Latibeaudiere, K.Wilson, B.Norton-Cuffy, R.Giles, T.Corbeanu, M.Grimes, F.Downes, D.Kasumu, J.Paterson, I.Cardona, Y.Maziz, M.Obafemi, Z.Flemming.
An array of indifferent solutions to certain positions could have been used for the above squad plan, but overall I think it represents a play-off competitive squad alongside earning a projected £10m-£15m. Early big sales will be needed to secure some of the names. It is a streamlined, fluid playing squad with players capable of playing multiple positions. The outlined 18 core squad could all receive sufficient playing time, with u23 talents like Abdulai and Congreve adding further depth alongside projected peripheral members Barkas and Walsh. A lovely blend of abilities and profiles to compliment the current playing squad and internal deficiencies. The back line looks more mobile, ball capable and defensively robust through Darling and McNally, whilst the wingbacks chosen, Giles and Wilson add huge levels of speed and attacking output, massive creativity from wide positions. Corbeanu on loan would be able to cover wingback and all three forward positions. Centrally the midfield has added mobility through Kasumu. In forward areas, five fluid, potential multi-changing options have been selected, and despite deviating from some previous ideas, the forwards all offer something different to one another and as a collective, you have speed, power, creativity, ball carrying and most importantly goals. Cardona and Flemming are perfectly capable of filling the striker role if need be and offer differential types of forward threats, with goals very much a key part of their inclusion. Paterson and Maziz would provide central creativity and chip in with goals also. Obafemi will do what Obafemi does. I would rotate this five amongst the three positions across the season, in a similar fashion to what Liverpool do so successfully.
Additional Potential Concept Squad Depth Charts:
Option 2: £15m-20m Transfer Profit
Option 3: £20m-25m Transfer Profit
Option 4: 0 Major Sales. (Highly Unlikely)
Final Thoughts:
Fair play if you have made it all the way to here! Who knows what is going to happen at Swansea City this summer, finances and sales will dictate heavily in what unfolds in the coming months. What can be said, is that through Russell Martin and smart recruitment, whether a £5m,£10m, £15m, £20m financial deficit has to be covered this transfer window, if recruitment is conducted smartly, we can still be a competitive outfit on the pitch and compete in the top half of the table and push on from last season. It must be emphasized further, the later in the window the likes of Joel Piroe depart, the smaller the pool of replacements and recruits available elsewhere will be , less preferred options will be the likely objective should a late window scramble unfold. There will be frustration and anger to come, initially at least, but it can be overcome and I have full faith we will do the right things as a club and are lucky to have the talented coaching staff in place who want to be at Swansea. Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed. Come on you Swans! ForeseeaBall.