Can Cook, Jones and Ekeler Post Big PPR Fantasy Stats Again?

You could call it a win for the little guy. While 6-foot-3, 247-pound Derrick Henry captured the regular season rushing title, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler — each measuring 5 feet 10 inches — stood tall to average better than 19 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues last year.

The trio’s efforts got me to thinking, when an NFL tailback of a relatively smaller stature posts a dream fantasy line of 19+ fantasy points per week, what are the chances they repeat the performance the next season?

For the purpose of this exercise I used Pro Football Reference’s player index and created a custom query focused on:

· Running backs 5 feet 10 inches-or-shorter…

· Who played in 12-or-more games in a single regular season …

· And averaged at least 19 fantasy points per game in PPR between the years 2000–2019

· A nice 20-year sample size.

The search generated 38 results and 19 unique players including Cook, Jones and Ekeler.

Source: Pro Football Reference | *Faulk eclipsed 19+ FPPG 1998–2002 / Note: Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew posted 19+ FPPG multiple years, but not consecutively.

Of those 19 players, six managed to post two-or-more consecutive years of 19+ fantasy points per game. As you may have guessed, Hall of Famers LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk dominated fantasy football during their professional tenures, but perhaps Philadelphia’s Brian Westbrook deserves a little more love from fantasy owners (and Canton?). Kansas City’s Priest Holmes posted an incredible three-year stretch standing 5 feet 9 inches, Tiki Barber’s PPR-PPG improved slightly year-over-year, while the Saints’ dynamic back, Alvin Kamara, hauled in 81 receptions in each of his first two seasons (sidenote: he caught 81 again in 2019, but fell short of 19 FPPG).

So, over the past two decades, we have two Hall of Famers, several legendary fantasy studs and a rising fantasy star as the only six running backs, 5-foot-10-or-shorter, to string together consecutive years of 19+ FPPG in PPR leagues. A betting man would say, Cook’s, Jones’ and Ekeler’s odds to repeat the feat aren’t great.

However, seven other stocky saviors on this list do provide glimmers of hope and reason to believe.

While some of the names in the table above may lead to a chuckle and conjure up “oh I remember him and that season” nostalgia, be sure to focus on the players’ “Year 2” column. Although Charlie Garner’s PPR fantasy production dipped significantly from 2002 to 2003, the other two to experience similar regression, Lamont Jordan and Doug Martin, both missed huge chunks of the following season due to injury. The other four, Ricky Williams, Domanick Williams, DeAngelo Williams and Devonta Freeman, may have slipped below 19 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, but not dramatically.

This bodes well for Cook, Jones and Ekeler, right? Let’s take a closer look at their 2019 production before cementing their 2020 fantasy legacies.

Dalvin Cook — 20.80 FPPG-PPR

Through his first eight games of 2019, Cook averaged 102.9 rush yards per game with nine touchdowns. A nagging shoulder injury down the stretch diluted what could have been an MVP-caliber season for Cook, but he still managed 52 rush yards per game and four more scores during the fantasy playoffs.

While his average yards after contact of 3.06 ranked outside the top 15 running backs with at least 130 carries* last season, it is in line with his 2018 average of 3.02 and just behind Mark Ingram’s 3.08.

For those concerned that former offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski’s departure will negatively impact Cook’s 2020 production, breathe easy. Minnesota hired from within and named veteran coach Gary Kubiak OC for next season. According to various reports, Kubiak mentored Stefanski somewhat in his assistant role last year. Kubiak’s positive track record with running backs date back to his days in Denver with Terrell Davis and, more recently, in 2014 with Baltimore when Justin Forsett rushed for 1,266 within his offensive scheme.

Cook missed most of his rookie season with a torn ACL and was inactive seven more times over the past two seasons due to various injuries. As it stands now, Cook’s body breaking down would be the only thing keeping him from 19+ fantasy points per game next season.

2020 Verdict: maintains-or-eclipses 2019 fantasy points per game average

* The 130 carries was selected to include Austin Ekeler.

Aaron Jones — 19.68 FPPG-PPR

The Packers RB1 kicked some ass during the 2019 fantasy playoffs, Weeks 14–16. He posted 339 rush yards with five touchdowns during the stretch, and chipped in six receptions for 58 yards in Week 14, specifically. His 2019 average yards after contact of 3.19 ranked 12th, just behind Ezekiel Elliott.

As a whole, however, some statistical trends concern me as it pertains to Jones upping the fantasy ante next season.

Seven of his 16 rushing touchdowns (44%) came in two games, both of which were non-conference clashes (vs. DAL, CAR). Additionally, 159 of his 474 receiving yards (33.5%) and two of his three receiving touchdowns came in one game (vs. KC). We’re talking a huge chunk of fantasy production zip-locked into 12 quarters. Jones’ 19.68 fantasy points per game average is at the mercy of these three contests and something to consider before overvaluing him ahead of next year’s draft or making dynasty league rosters decisions.

Of more-recent concern are comments made by Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur during the 2020 NFL scouting combine. He said the Packers would like to get Jamaal Williams more touches and even add a third back into the mix next season. Jones out-touched Williams more than 2:1 last season, 285-to-138. As LaFleur noted, “you need multiple guys to get to the finish line.” This isn’t a great sign for Jones’ fantasy progression year-over-year.

2020 Verdict: more likely than not to regress in fantasy points per game

Austin Ekeler — 19.31 FPPG-PPR

On Friday, the Chargers signed Ekeler to a four-year, $24.5-million contract. According to reports, the front office was trying to come to terms with the dynamic back since early-January.

After they cut ties with long-time quarterback Philip Rivers and with the understanding running back Melvin Gordon will test free agency and is likely to move on following a clunky holdout last season, the Chargers will embrace a new backfield look in 2020, which they believe Ekeler can lead.

Before we go any further, a quick review of his 2019 resume.

His 993 receiving yards are the 11th-most by a running back in NFL history. He caught 92 receptions on 104 targets with only two drops. Ekeler’s 88.5 catch percentage was the second-highest rate of the top 10 leaders of receptions by a running back. However, Le’Veon Bell’s catch rate of 89.2 comes with an asterisk because he caught 66 balls on just 74 targets.

Rivers and Ek got busy in 2019, but a change at quarterback won’t be the worst thing to happen to the fourth-year running back out of Western Colorado. I think Rivers’ sidearm deliver put Ekeler at a disadvantage as evident by his 1.21 ADOT, ranked 21st among RB’s. By comparison, Aaron Jones’ ADOT from AROD was 2.26. Depending on who the Chargers 2020 trigger is, perhaps a more fluid (and aesthetically pleasing) throwing motion will get Ekeler upfield faster. It’s hard to imagine that metric will regress.

Lastly, offensive coordinator Shane Steichen has been retained and will return next season. He was promoted to OC Week 9 of last year after the Chargers canned Ken Whisenhunt. In his final eight games with Steichen calling plays, Ekeler averaged 38 rush yards, five receptions, and 60.7 receiving yards per game with three touchdowns (all rec.). That’s approximately 16–17 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.

2020 Verdict: Could a between-the-tackles back vulture some work? Sure, but I won’t be shy taking a share or five of Ekelker in my fantsy leagues next season.