Will South Korea Die Out? (Spoiler Alert: Probably Not.)

[This is part of my series on Thomas Malthus’ “Essay on the Principle of Population,” first published in 1798. You can find an overview of all my posts here that I will keep updated: “Synopsis: What’s Wrong with the Malthusian Argument?”]

South Korea currently has one of the lowest fertilities in the world, the estimate is 1.05 for 2017, well below the replacement level that stabilizes a population. It used to be different with very high fertility only half a century ago. A common conclusion from this is that a country will die out over the longer run. Here is scare-mongering from Brookings (via Business Insider):

“A 2014 study commissioned by the national legislature concluded that South Koreans could ‘face natural extinction by 2750 if the birthrate were maintained at 1.19 children per woman — assuming no reunification with North Korea or significant inflow of migrants,” according to the Brookings Institute, citing data from a simulation commissioned by the National Assembly in Seoul.

According to that simulation, South Korea’s current population of 50.2 million could fall to 20 million by the end of the century. The second-largest city, Busan, will “go extinct” by 2413, while the capital, Seoul, will go by 2505.”

I have no idea what the discussion in South Korea is like. But judging from what it has been in France for the past 150 years and in Germany for a century, I would expect sheer panic. However, note that France and Germany are…