“The 33" — Charting The 33 Influences of Innovation+ “The Wanings”

(Part 1 of 3 posts) The forces holding back Futureproofing and getting beyond innovation

Author: Sean Moffitt, Founder & Managing Director. Futureproofing

Sometimes what we write is what we care about. Using Google nGram Viewer (which is essentially a Google search engine for book content) as a source for what is and what was top of mind, declining and rising over the last 220 years, we can understand the confluence of forces that lead to forces of change, fresh arguments and new eras.

Like the frog and the boiling water, frequently when we are in the current water of a marketplace, culture or tech cycle, we don’t really know when we are in a transitional phase between what used to be and what’s to come. Some of what follows may be self-evident and serve as a history lesson. Other elements may surprise you.

We’ve mapped 33 of the most important influences that have shaped our current view on innovation (or forward looking, what we are calling futureproofing — read here ) and telegraph where the past has been and where the future may be going.

Here’s our breakdown that we will spread across a series of three posts

• The Wanings — 12 innovation+ forces and influences on the wane
• The Stalwarts — 8 innovation+ forces and influences remaining strong
• The Risings — 13 innovation+ forces and influences on the rise

Come explore what is really headed down in this post, as we will cover off the stalwarts and influences on the rise in future posts.

Forces on The Wane:

Many of the innovation tools we use today were invented during these past and waning eras that may have been foundational for effectiveness in a previous age. The command-and-control, time-exhausting centralized planning systems and methods of innovations have their genesis from these previous environments. Let’s explore.

#1. Imitation : era 1800–1925, peaked pre-1800

Imitation and replicating what we already know has become mainly commodified and strictly a cost game in the 2020s. In the 1800s and early 1900s, it was a much more sophisticated science and dark art to play around enforceable patents and globalize and spread quickly versions of originating industrial products. Quick imitation still plays a role in secondary markets and certain time-sensitive industries like fashion and entertainment but has diminished as a catalyst for innovation.

#2 Invention : era — 1835–1885, peaked 1860

The invention era boldly arrived with a revolutionary introduction of here-to-for never seen products, and was driven by electrification, mass production, cultural revolutions and secularization. It peaked in the 1860s and took on other forms in the 20th century. Think about the leading hero inventors of the 19th century, which still hang around as some company names or icons today : Edison, Tesla, Whitney, Westinghouse, Eastman, Goodyear, Singer, Bell, Morse. Today’s environment has pushed to business models and configuring (vs.inventing) elements which has de-risked innovation (but also could be critiqued for making innovation more incremental and less breakthrough). The march of time has also spawned more collaborative ways of development in the 21st century than the singular toil of a lone inventor from the invention era.

#3 Machines : era — 1880–1960, double peaks 1920, 1950s

The machine/hardware era was ushered in by the automobile and airplane and continued on post-World War consumer era, ceding way to computerization.

#4 Industrialization : era — 1880–1940, peaked 1920s

The heavy industry of production through steel, automobiles and machines had a 60 year fascination on our progressive minds. The invention of the internal combustion engine, the harnessing of electricity, the construction of canals, railways and electric-power lines, rapid urbanization and shifts form agriculture to industry were the biggest factors and results. With heavy investment and exploitation required, many of these industries became monopolized and controlled by robber barons, with their power fizzling out as a pre-occupation in the Western World after WW II and a smaller revival as various parts or the developing and Eastern world as they became industrialized in the later 20th century. It had now petered away as a catalyst and distinctive point of difference for innovation.

#5 The Assembly Line : era — 1905–1975, peaked mid 1940s

What started with Henry Ford and the Model T assembly line and the streamlined efficient flow and specialization of goods and people, sparked incredible wealth, turned the ride of a World War and held court until the mid 1970s as a topic of management interest. Automation, sociological challenges and the shift of modern economies into services has reduced interest in assembly lines as a catalyst for innovation.

#6 The Machine Age : era — 1920–1950, peaked mid 1930s

Before we moved to the atomic and transistor age, we had a 30 year period where our imaginations were sparked by streamlined designs of railcars, aircraft, automobiles and ships, an unbridled enthusiasm for its potential and negatively, its dystopic evolution of what machines might do to us as humans. Rapid exploitation of natural resources, gigantic production facilities, exploitation of labour and new art movements (steampunk, futurism, cubism) ensued. Whereas our fascination with technology continues, it’s become less focused on the hardware, somewhat less idealized and more focused on the software, data, intelligence and things we can’t visibly see in modern times.

#7 Mass Production : era — 1920–1960, peaked late 1940s

As an outcropping of machine-tooled standardized sizes and advanced techniques of managing production lines, mass production held sway for forty years. Economies of scale, prefabrication, vertical integration and massive increases in improvements in productivity were its features,. Whereas scale is still vitally important in the current innovation age, mass production has ceded way to a consumerism age that provides more choice and variety demanded by a more discriminating, wealthy and finicky marketplace.

#8 Planning : era — 1910–1985, peaked 1970s

Planning ushered in the era of centralization, five year planning cycles, the development of corporate strategy, resource allocation and the rise of management consulting. Integration of all these elements across supply chains and partners advanced until 1980s when technology, systems and more variety with globalized and localized approaches started to appear. Planning has not gone away, but its importance has diminished and has in recent years demanded more iteration, future orientation and decentralization to respond quickly to societal and marketplace needs.

#9 Automation : era — 1950–2000, peaked mid 1960s and early 1990s

Automated control systems such as navigation systems, fire-control systems, and electronics pervaded the 1960s advanced by pioneering space age technologies. Automation became en vogue as an innovation topic again in the 1980s and early 1990s being propelled by information technology systems and personal computers. At the time, automation was mainly at a factory level, moved to a management level and now has become embraced at an end user/customer level. The paradox of automation over the years was the more invested the technology, the more critical the operator. Automation continues as a subject (albeit as a lesser catalyst and often in ethical terms) in close association with AI and IoT.

#10 Marketing : era — 1910–2010, peaked mid 1930s early 1960s and early 1990s

The age of the mass market was propelled by three separate eras:

• The introduction of national markets, mass media and more sophisticated communications to go along with mass production and The New Deal recovery in the 1930s.
• The shift to broadcast media, consumer brands and continental/regional production in 1960s and
• The shift to globalization, long tail product variety, PR, direct marketing & branding and digital media in the 1990s.

Marketing has seen a dropoff in last decade as companies are more strongly correlating direct ties between marketing, sales and customer experience into new arrangements, and are also better positioned to provide and deliver products and messages that are customized, personalized and potentially appealing to markets of even one.

#11 Research & Development (R&D) : era — 1985–2005, peaked mid 1990s

Research & Development became the en vogue term for companies as the correlation between money invested by corporations and governments in leading edge and applied research and growth became clearer, peaking in the mid-1990s. As research, and its associated risk, got outsourced to universities, private-public partnerships and startups, internal R&D has become less of a focus and catalyst for innovation and more the domain of venture capital, accelerators and technology transfers.

#12 Total Quality : era — 1980–2005, peaked mid-to-late 1990s

As consumer scrutiny rose, available choices climbed, global competition expanded and customer experience elevated in standing, companies became more attuned to make defective-free products to ensure greater customer loyalty and less waste/returns. Total Quality Management and getting quality right across the enterprise enjoyed widespread attention through the last part of the 20th century before being overshadowed by ISO 9000, Lean manufacturing and Six Sigma and an overall move to platforms, experiences and services.

We’ll post next about The Stalwarts, the eight forces that have remained steady and continue to play a role as catalyst for innovation+ and futureproofing.

Futureproofing — The Future Beyond Innovation

Futureproofing operates as a hub for the future beyond innovation. We believe to be truly effective, helpful and to get companies, teams and people unstuck, we have built out 11 facets to our business operation:

• The Gallery — a full range of 55 change-related keynotes, briefings & workshops ready to inspire and take the first steps
• The Hangar — delivery of the work, selective or end-to-end sprints, experiments and CoLabs which get teams through key hurdles
• The Hatchery — optimizing for better & bolder organization value via business model, value proposition and ecosystem pivots & expansions
• The Academy — creating a training & learning experience to improve the skills, acumen and certification of futureproofers everywhere
• The Refinery — through over a decade of understanding and mapping the drivers of change, expert audits of org., team & personal future-readiness
• Futureproofing Labs — fresh content and expert intelligence for a fast approaching future — reports and research that navigates what’s ahead
• The Distillery — bridging the distance between unthinkable and possible through corporate ventures, partnerships and incubation
• Futureproofing Forums — open & executive-only conversations with the world’s top change voices through webcasts, events & masterminds
• Futureproofing 66° — our front row of innovation+ & change champions, leading executives, passionate collaborators and practitioner innovators
• The Vault — a comprehensive directory of resources designed to actually help change agents via online resources, tools and enewsletters
• The Futureproofing Awards — global role models for a future-ready change and innovation+ across twenty+ different categories

The organization is led by Sean Moffitt, and is supported by a number of leading change agents from around the world.

Interested? Curious? Get in touch with us here.