On December 26, a video released by al-Qaeda stated that the key to victory in Kashmir lies in waging war on Indian cities. The head of Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) reportedly stated that “India is already using 600,000 troops just to hold on to Kashmir, if it is attacked in Kolkata, Bangalore and New Delhi, it will come to its senses and release its grip on Kashmir’’. According to security agencies, the video is suspected to have been made near the Jamia Masjid in Srinagar.
The incident closely follows the December 22 appeal by Islamic State (IS) to Al- Qaeda affiliate in Kashmir, Ghazwat-ul-Hind (AGH) leader Zakir Musa & other members to join its ranks. In an online message it appealed ‘We invite soldiers of Ansaar Gazwat ul Hind and their Ameer Zakir Musa to join the caravan of the caliphate, respond to the calls of time, don’t listen to the balmes of balmers’. This comes in the backdrop of Zakir Musa, formerly part of Pakistan backed Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), pledged his allegiance to Al-Qaeda in June 2017 and after preliminary reports of at least some AGH militants pledging allegiance to IS.
IS- linked attacks in India
In a significant incident, on July 12, corpse of a militant, identified as Sajad Gilkar, a resident of downtown Srinagar, was killed along with two other HM militants in an encounter and was wrapped in the flag of the Islamic State (IS). Moreover, in a first of its kind, IS claimed responsibility for November 17 attack in which a Police officer, SI Imran Tak, was killed and another police officer wounded at Zakoora area in Srinagar.
Militancy scenario in Kashmir: A comparative analysis
The year 2017 has seen an increase in militancy related fatalities in Kashmir. At least 347 people (212 militants, 78 security forces and 57 civilians) have been killed in Kashmir this year. In 2016 the fatality count stood at 267 (14 civilians, 88 security forces and 165 militants) and in 2015 the count stood at 174 (20 civilians, 41 security forces and 113 militants).
Of the slain militants whose group affiliations which could be identified, at least 44 militants belonged to HM and 57 militants belong to LeT, while 21 belongs to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).
Transnational militancy in Kashmir
Despite the long standing interest of transnational Islamist militants, IS or AQ has had no operational presence in the Indian subcontinent. All the major Islamist attacks in Jammu Kashmir and Indian hinterland has come from Pakistan based militant groups such as Lashkar e Toiba (LeT), Jeish-e Mohammed (JeM) or from organisations such as Indian Mujahideen (IM). Most notable among these were the July 10 attack by LeT militants which killed eight civilians and wounded 19 others when they attacked a bus carrying Amarnath pilgrims. Separately on the intervening nights of May 9–10, a Kashmiri Army officer was abducted and killed, by suspected HM militants.
Since Al-Qaeda’s announcement of the formation of a new regional affiliate called “Qaedat al-Jihad fi’shibhi al-qarrat al-Hindiya,” or Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) in 2014, the group has failed to conduct any successful attack in India, including Kashmir. However in the recent times, there has been an increasing amount of propaganda from AQIS with reference to Kashmir. Also, the only attack claimed by IS was the rather insignificant March 10 low intensity explosion in Madhya Pradesh in which 10 people were wounded.
Despite the rhetoric and periodic release of statements by AGH, AQ and IS, the operational capacities of these militant groups currently remains unsophisticated and limited. Moreover, the advent of AGH in Kashmir has resulted in further factionalisation of militant groups in Kashmir. Media reports in September stated that streets of Shopian (Shopian District) are splashed with posters bearing HM stamp blaming al Qaeda-appointed ‘head’ of Kashmir jihad, Zakir Musa, for ‘helping Indian forces kill Kashmiris’ and asking people to ‘chase him to death’, while also describing him as an ‘Indian agent’. Written in Urdu, with Musa’s picture displayed prominently, the posters claim that the former HM militant got many ‘innocents in lieu of huge money’.
These aforementioned incidents indicate that although there have been a few instances of IS flags and insignia in the valley, they are superficial indicators of its presence and support in the state.
The increasing references by Al Qaeda and IS on Kashmir is a probable indicator that both are looking for new avenues to secure an operational foothold and are competing with each other to gain more appeal and traction in the South Asian country. Moreover, given that the territorial losses for IS in Syria and Iraq the transnational militant group is attempting to find another venue where they can establish themselves.
These attempted forays are being viewed with hostility by Pakistan backed militant groups such as HM. HM commander (also the ‘chairman’ of United Jihad Council (UJC) , an umbrella group of militant groups) urged Kashmiris not to join any ‘global Jihadi movement’. He stated that ‘Some of our friends are playing into the hands of our enemy and trying to create divide between people and their leadership. Our movement is an indigenous movement’.
Forecast
Given that Islamist attacks in Indian hinterland have seen a sharp dip since 2008, AQ and IS affiliates in India are suspected of planning to conduct a high profile attack to announce its entry in to India. However, with the absence of precedence, the operational capability of these groups is yet to be demonstrated. Additionally in Kashmir, possibility of factional tensions resulting in violence between AQ affililiate and Pakistan based groups remains a possibility with Pakistani militant groups attempting to ‘protect its turf’.
Although the presence of transnational militants is not likely to be significant tactically or militarily in the short term, it indicates the transition of local Islamist aims and ideologies into global ones. Moreover, if the forays by international Islamist groups comes to fruition, the character of insurgent violence will be altered in Kashmir, with sectarianism also creeping in to the conflict ridden state resulting in massive violence.
Contributor: M.A. Athul is a Research Assistant with New Delhi based think tank South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)
