Militant threat emanating from the western borders of India from transnational militant groups based in Pakistan (such as Lashka e Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)) is rather well known due to the cyclical violence. Although devoid of such high profile attacks, similar threat emanating from the eastern borders poise a significant and renewed threat to India’s internal security.
The January 19 2018 low intensity explosion in Bodh Gaya in Bihar (which was earlier target of another terrorist attack in July 2013, perpetrated by Indian Mujahedeen) during the visit of the Dalai Lama and subsequent arrest of two militants of Jamaatul Mujahedeen Bangladesh (JMB) militants is a likely indicator that the groups are regrouping, posing further threats to the India.
The recent arrests of three Bangladeshi Nationals on March 16 and arrest of two other Bangladeshi nationals from Pune in Maharashtra highlight the threat of terrorism across the country. A particularly worrying development was the fact that they were working in an Army construction site. The arrested individuals were involved in helped members of the banned Bangladeshi outfit Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) (currently called Ansar al Islam). ABT, a Bangladesh base militant group came into notoriety for its attacks on secular/atheist bloggers who were instrumental in the Shahbagh protests of 2013. The group, initially formed in 2007 was initially called Jama’atul Muslemin and resurfaced later in 2013 as ABT. Since then a series of arrests of ABT militants have been recorded in India throughout 2017 including those in Kolkata, Uttar Pardesh’s Muzaffarnagar District and New Delhi August 10. In case of the latter the militant was allegedly linked to Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), ABT and had visited Kashmir valley.
ABT is not the only radical militant group from Bangladesh which has had its presence in India. Bangladeshi militant groups such as Harkat-ul-Jihad Al-Islami-Bangladesh (HUJI-B) has also been involved in attacks on urban areas in India as highlighted by the groups involvement in attacks in the American Center in 2002, Varanasi in 2006 and suicide bombings in Hyderabad.
Bangladesh Militant Groups & Linkages with Transnational Militant Groups
The Bangladeshi militant groups have long standing linkages with transnational militant groups such as Al Qaeda as well as regional militant groups. The instructors of HUJI-B were also known to have been involved in training militants of United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and Indian insurgent group active in north eastern India, which borders Bangladesh. HUJI-B was also known to have had tie ups with LeT of Pakistan and Indian Mujahideen of India. Although once formidable the operational capabilities of the group is diminished.
The most lethal of Bangladeshi militant groups, Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and senior leadership of the group was known to have established linkages with Al Qaeda. This was possible for him after he established contact with Abdul Karim Tunda (later arrested in 2013) an Indian Islamist militant who in Dhaka looking after LeT operations in Bangladesh.
A splinter faction of the group identified as neo-JMB broke off from JMB also emerged in the subsequent years and pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State (IS). The groups were responsible for the Dhaka attack in July 2016. Later it was reported that many of the leadership of JMB has traveled to India. Moreover, the group had also covertly procured explosives and weapons for attacks in Bangladesh from India. The AK-22 rifle used in the Gulshan attacks was reportedly procured from illegal gun factories in West Bengal.
Although JMB has not been directly involved in attacks in India, they have been using Indian Territory as a logistical base to stage attacks in Bangladesh. This came to light in 2014 Burdwan blast in West Bengal, when accidental explosion resulted in exposure of bomb factory and JMB network in India. The militants have also used the porous Indo-Bangladesh border to escape into India to escape the crackdown of Bangladeshi authorities. In February 2018, JMB launched its India chapter. Although India was being used as recruitment base and hideouts, the opening of India chapter indicates mutating operational intent of the group.
Evolving Nature of Threat
Islamist militants have always been eying the eastern borders of to conduct attacks in India. The leader of neo-JMB Tamim Chaoudhary in an interview to Dabiq (publication of Islamic State), had stated that ‘Having a strong jihad base in Bengal (Bangladesh) will facilitate guerilla attacks inside India simultaneously from both sides [east and west]’. Moreover, in 2016 there were reports of JeM leaders ‘speeches being translated into Bengali and being spread via social media.
Although the Islamist threat is not new, the presence of militant groups and the aforementioned activities has to be seen in the wider spectrum of jihadi activity in South and West Asia. With local militant groups such as splinter group of Hizbul Mujahideen, Ansar Ghazwat-Ul-Hind pledging allegiance to Al Qaeda and splinter faction of Indian Mujahedeen, Ansar ul Tawhid (AuT) pledging allegiance to Islamic State (IS), transnational militant groups can claim its presence in India, despite the fact that their operational foot print in India is insignificant. However, by the infusion of ABT and JMB militants (who has some operational experience as well as likely experience in IED making) into these groups, the splinter group can become lethal on its own. Although Al Qaeda and Islamic state (IS) does not have a direct presence in India, the presence of regional affiliates is likely to result in a heightened operational presence and magnify its global presence. Additionally having lost its physical caliphate in west Asia, IS is likely to look for other geographical areas to expand; and India with its sizable Muslim population is likely to be its top preferred countries.
Additionally, with Rohingya crisis brewing in India’s eastern neighborhood in Myanmar, Islamists have found propaganda material for recruitment and a cause of grievance against Buddhist population. In this scenario, the possibility of targeted attacks in areas which have significant Buddhist population by these militant groups remains a possibility. The bombings in Buddhist holy site of Bodh Gaya in 2013 and 2018 give credence to such a scenario. Moreover, the advent of the renewed Islamist insurgency in Myanmar by Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) also gives further opportunity for transnational militants to gain a foot hold in the vicinity of India’s eastern borders, which may likely cause instability and radicalisation in states such as Assam. The ARSA militant group is reportedly connected with their leaders, across Asia of which some are based in India
There has been no verifiable evidence of Rohingya population in India being radicalized. However, an isolated incident was reported when a Rohingya militant of (LeT) being killed in Jammu and Kashmir. In 2015, an ethnic Rohingya militant identified as Abdur Rehman al Arkani was killed in an encounter at Tral in Pulwama District. However since then there have been no further reports of Rohingya militants operating in Kashmir.
In May 2017, the Union Home Minster had stated that northeastern India was especially vulnerable to religious radicalization. Recently, the Minister of State for Home Affairs (MoS) Kiren Rijiju state in Parliament that there were attempts of radicalization across the border from Bangladesh. He also added that there are reports of some radical outfits trying to expand their network and activities in the region. Incidentally, one of the few instances of suicide bombing with in India was carried out by a Bangladeshi national in Andhra Pradesh on October 12, 2005. The attack was perpetrated by HUJI-B. With the creeping presence of Bangladeshi militants and its network in India, the potential for a plot of suicide bombing cannot be ruled out.
Although instances of urban militancy have come down in India, there continues to be some operational gaps which continue to persist and potentially exploited by militants. With transnational militants attempting to find footing in new areas coupled with the fact that groups such as IS and Al Qaeda (or its affiliates) has managed to conduct high profile attacks in India’s neighborhood, the threat of attacks posed by a plethora of militant groups continues to persist. With porous boundaries in eastern sector resulting in substantial cross border migration coupled with presence of armed militant groups in states of north eastern sector, possibility of militant infiltration from the eastern region continues to remain high and bring along with it the threat of militant attacks over the coming months.
