Dr Louis Arnoux
Sep 22 · 1 min read


New research presented on 17 Sptember by two French climate research teams shows that the globalised industrial world (GIW) is locked-in an overshoot of the so-called 2ºC warming limit. Even if all GHG emissions stopped right now, magically or as a result of an abrupt crash of the GIW (e.g. à la collapse of USSR in 1991), warming would still overshoot. This invalidates the Paris Agreement and all present policies, strategies, plans and Green New Deals… It also invalidates the notion of a remaining “carbon budget” and the entire mythology about the feasibility of staying below limits. It also puts into question the IPCC SR15 report of last October that requested a 45% cut of all emissions by 2030. This is no longer enough. The GIW can’t survive this (even if we ignore for a moment that it is also in the process of losing its thermodynamic foundations, which it can’t live without). Between now and 2021 when its next report is due, the IPCC has considerable work to do to come to terms with what is emerging — and no doubt we can anticipate considerable debating and political pressure ahead.

    Dr Louis Arnoux

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    Louis is the catalyst and main author for the Cool Planet entrepreneurial collective. Louis and Cool Planet write under the GB collective name (GeeeBee).