Bulgaria as a Russian Trojan Horse in the EU and NATO

Bulgaria has been a subject of Russian hybrid aggression a long time, and it may soon become a Kremlin’s “Trojan horse” in the EU and NATO.

Russia has long been pursuing an intended and calculated policy of keeping enough influence in Bulgaria in order to have control over national decisions. Together with the economic, energy, political and information tools used by Russia in its hybrid war against Bulgaria and in its bid to achieve an enduring “state capture,” defense is also a distinct target of Russian subversion now. A list of noticeable subversive actions with tangible effects can be summarized, ranging from fuelling division and manipulating public opinion, preventing the strengthening of the NATO position in the Black Sea, sabotaging defense reform to various options of subverting the modernization of the Bulgarian Armed Forces, and seeking new ways to keep legacy Soviet military equipment in operation as long as possible.

Mihail Naydenov, the Bulgarian Defence & Security expert has described it in details.

This issue must be urgently addressed both nationally and in NATO.

The Russian strategy is aimed at exercising control in Bulgaria to such an extent that Sofia cannot pursue a truly sovereign foreign and security policy as a full-fledged NATO and EU member. The essence of this strategy can be defined as “Bulgaria: Trojan Horse” in NATO and the EU. Under this logic, Sofia would be permitted to formally join the EU and NATO, but on the condition that Moscow would have a sufficient level of control over its policy direction. Consequently, the Bulgarian membership would be seen by Moscow as an asset rather than a threat.

Defense is a distinct and important target of Russian subversion as Moscow acts across the full spectrum of power in its hybrid war against Sofia. A weak national defense means Bulgaria will be a security burden to NATO, rather than a security provider. A Bulgaria that ‘free rides’ off its allies’ defense guarantees perfectly serves Moscow’s aims of weakening, dividing and eventually disrupting the Alliance.

Fueling division in society and among the main political parties and leaders with regard to NATO membership has been a long-lasting element of Russian influence. In this context, the implementation of the national commitments to the Alliance is under attack. Going further, some politicians even float the idea of a referendum on NATO and EU membership. This logic is aimed at subverting the foundations of the Bulgarian foreign, security and defense policy as a member of NATO and the EU. That’s why the Kremlin supports anti-Western, Euroskeptic, pseudo-nationalist and pro-Russian parties hoping that they one day gain a stake in defense decision-making.

To stimulate mistrust of NATO, Moscow has consistently manipulated media and public opinion by using information operations.

Aggressive pro-Russian propaganda targets Bulgarian defense policy, actively carried out by local proxies. Defense-focused web sites and social media are actively used to cultivate nostalgia amongst retired military personnel and its reservist NGOs, and to disseminate pro-Russian propaganda.

Corruption and mismanagement are perfect system debilitating agents. Indeed, this is the hardest to be proven without Court sentences, resulting from the actions of truly independent and trusted Prosecution and Judiciary. Corruption and persistent bad management might not be necessarily orchestrated by Moscow, but they clearly fit in its ambitions. Pervasive local cultures of corruption and bad management practices in the ex-Communist countries are good breeding ground for influencing decisions in Moscow’s favor.

All these negative developments make the defense organization unprepared to face the challenges of the 21st century, one of the greatest of which is the revanchist policy of Vladimir Putin’s Russia. That is why defense subversion must be urgently addressed both at the national and NATO and EU level. A good starting point is to raise awareness among society and the allies about this long-neglected critical problem.

Raising awareness is the first step to start with. Hybrid warfare is first and foremost about perceptions and understanding of the real situation. If leaders and society of any given country under hybrid attack are unable to comprehend they are under such a threat, then the defeat is only a matter of time. Nowadays this is the main challenge to be overcome in the case of Bulgaria. Having a clear vision on the current threats, their nature and their source is the first solid foundation for adopting and implementing a robust national strategy to counter hybrid threats.