Russia has only one real goal in Donbas - frozen conflict
Despite the common stand of Ukraine, the U.S. and other Western countries, the UN peacekeeping mission in Donbas may be realized only with a consent of Moscow. Russia has inherited the status of the UN Security Council permanent member from the USSR. Since then, Moscow successfully applies that status to veto key decisions in conflict regions where it has interests.
In the case of Donbas, Putin will not satisfied with a neutral and influential peacekeeping mission with a strong international mandate. Because it may be the beginning of the end for Kremlin’s swindle in Eastern Ukraine. Therefore, Moscow is seeking an alternative mission with an international status, but under its control.
If you are trying to understand the logic of Russia in the issue of peacekeepers, look at other conflict regions where Moscow has already implemented such practice.
One of the similar examples is the Russian mission in Armenia, whose real purpose is to adjust Azerbaijan’s military policy in the conflict with Armenia. Russia has there a military group with up to 4,000 troops, heavy weapons, including tanks, artillery, “Grad” and “Smerch” systems, anti-aircraft missile systems and many others.
Actually, this Russian “peacekeeping mission” in Armenia is an instrument of military pressure and geopolitical blackmailing in the region. In addition, Russian “peacekeepers” themselves are the cause of conflicts and murders in the region. Russian military shoot, rape, and mock civilians. Many cases were officially recorded in Gyumri in 1999, in Vahramaberd in 2013, again in Gyumri in 2015. Moreover, the Russian military commits other crimes, including killing each other while serving in the mission in Armenia. Therefore, the Russian military base in Armenia is not a guarantor of security, but on the contrary, represents a threat to regional stability.
Russia is not capable to provide other formats of peacekeeping. Obviously, Moscow would like to deploy the same mission in Donbas. Now, Russia and its satellite countries promote the option of mission under the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) control. This issue was repeatedly raised by the President of Belarus Lukashenko.
Now, the CSTO is headed by Armenian General Khachaturov who is convenient for Russia. Its units are actually under the control of Moscow and are ready to carry out only Kremlin’s orders.
Donbas for Russia is an ideal ground for testing its weapons and training of combat units. The Kremlin’s strategic interest is the long-term frozen conflict in the Eastern Ukraine, with the slow ousting of international players.
