November 8th

Will November be the beginning of the end for cannabis prohibition?

On November 8th American voters will turn out in record numbers to make the much-maligned choice between Hilary and Trump. But those in Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada have another choice to make, whether to legalise cannabis.

Rightly, attention has focused on California, which already holds the lion’s share of the estimated $5.7 billion US industry. The Californian market alone is set to grow to $6.6 billion by 2020 in anticipation of a yes vote on 8th November. Proposition 64 [link] is the last option standing in California after 21 different proposals for various forms of cannabis legalisation have been whittled down to just one. Much has been made of the infighting among the pro-legalisation movement about the wording of the proposition, but most of the dissent now seems sated. Compromises have been made by all parties, and the foundations of good campaign finance and strong polling are in place.

Proposition 64 looks highly likely to succeed, but is this at the expense of the other states?

Proposition 64 is by far the best-financed campaign of any of the five states, as of 16 August 2016, the support campaign had over $11,453,469.31 in funds. Compare that to only $498,591.60 in Massachusetts. California also polls the strongest. A recent poll by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California put support in California for legalising cannabis for recreational use at 63.8%. In Nevada polling consistently puts support below 50%.

The cannabis industry has been conspicuously insignificant in comparison to concerned individuals and wealthy philanthropists in its funding of the five initiatives for legalisation. Many of the thousands of companies currently operating in the fragmented and complicated markets may see widespread reform as a threat to their survival, or simply lack the resources to fund attempts to open new markets. This is sure to change after California, when more funds will be available for later initiatives. But could this be too little too late if the other, poorly-funded, campaigns flounder and fail, as looks likely in Arizona and Massachusetts and possible in Maine and Nevada?

California is the world’s 6th largest economy. Many assume that, once it legalises, big business will move the industry in a way that hasn’t happened yet in the small, fractured and constantly shifting regulatory environment of Alaska, Colorado, Oregon and Washington. Once this happens, the business lobby will be too strong and an inexorable tide of legalisation around the globe will follow. Or so the argument goes…

Is California a case of exceptionalism or normalisation?

The counter argument is that California is just another West Coast state with attitudes to cannabis which are in stark contrast to the rest of the US, and the world. As big business moves into the cannabis space, prices will be driven down, marketing activity will increase and public health concerns exacerbated by rising use levels, or the appearance of rising use levels that legalisation may bring through de-stigmatisation of cannabis use.

Priorities must be set and a focus on the largest market with the highest level of support for legalising cannabis seems a natural and pragmatic approach. Nevertheless, it will be a great shame for reformers everywhere if Arizona, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada all fail to legalise while a state which has near ubiquitous access to medical marijuana and progressive decriminalisation laws marches on with the inevitable success of cannabis reform on the West Coast.