Fifteen years ago, George W. Bush was handed the family’s presidential baton. Now, it’s Jeb’s turn to run, but to the surprise of many experts, he’s falling behind in the race.
Jeb, 62, has worn many hats in banking, real estate and eventually politics. He helped his father, George H.W. Bush, win the White House in 1988. Twelve years later, H.W.’s eldest, George W., was elected to the same office.
Money and politics make up the bedrock of the Bush family and are also the reason why “Bush” has become a household name. Jeb wanted to try his hand at politics too and run for Congress in the 1980s, his father told him to wait until he made more money, according to the New Yorker. His turn finally came in 1994, when he ran for governor in Florida. Jeb lost that year, but he came back in 1998 to win the election, and again in 2002.
Jeb has become known as a people-person and the “smarter brother” — a nod at his older brother, George W., and his tumultuous second term. Political insiders long predicted Jeb would run to carry on his family legacy, and many speculated he would against former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.
Despite all this, Bush is trailing in the polls behind unexpected risers like the outspoken billionaire Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Bush is a classic Republican with a moderate twist on certain issues, but winning back the spotlight from his competitors will prove to be an uphill battle.
Florida: An educational crusade
Jeb Bush’s tenure in the sunshine state was the training in politics that led up to his long-predicted run for president. It was in Florida that he established his conservative agenda, with a focus on crime and welfare reform.
But his core mission eventually turned to education when he joined the board of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, and started putting his weight behind charter schools. The idea behind this is to allow publicly funded schools to operate independently in hopes of encouraging competition and choice in the education system. As charter schools gained bipartisan traction in the mid-1990s, Bush endorsed legislation allowing for these new schools.
While some believed Bush was trying to better the school system and give parents freedom of school choice, others saw his pro-charter attitude as a sign of a larger agenda to privatize state programs.
Bush considers education reform his biggest accomplishment as governor and touts that student test scores improved during his term. However, critics have contested the claim, pointing to his failed Florida Comprehensive Accountability Test. Since leaving as governor, Jeb has continued to focus on education policy, a reflection of the national trend.
What about foreign policy? Would Jeb follow in his brother’s footsteps?
Jeb Bush might have made an impact in Florida, but nationally, he’s already being haunted by the shadow of his brother’s foreign policy legacy — invading Iraq and turning a blind eye to the CIA’s use of torture.
He initially came out in defense of his older brother’s decision to invade Iraq and got a lot of flack for it from both the left and the right. But he appears to be conscious of how his brother’s policies are perceived and has since called the invasion “a mistake.”
Since then, Bush turned the table to slam current President Barack Obama and former secretary of state HIllary Clinton, who is now the Democratic frontrunner for president. He alleges that his brother’s decision to inject more U.S. troops in Iraq led to a more stable country, and that Obama’s decision to pull troops helped IS seize power in the region. Politifact has disputed this claim, however, noting that IS’ roots go back to 2004.
Overall, Bush likes to play the tough guy on when it comes to the Middle East, at the expense of the Obama administration and Team Clinton. He opposes the president’s nuclear deal with Iran and has called on Congress to reject it. In a speech given Aug. 11, Bush expressed his reluctance to put boots on the ground, but proposed embedding more U.S. troops alongside Iraqi troops to show “that we are determined to help local forces” fight against IS.
Where does he stand on other issues?
Bush has embraced a conservative agenda and attitude, but in a less-polarized way than some of the other Republican candidates. For example, he opposes same-sex marriage, but has described the need for respect of all unions. He has also stood out from the far-right of his party by recognizing the need to address the issue of climate change.
He also distinguished himself from his competitors on immigration. According to The Hill, Bush in 2014 called illegal immigration “an act of love,” and backed creating a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
“I believe that the great majority of people coming here illegally have no other option,” he said, when asked about his position during the first Republican debate in August. “They want to provide for their family, but we need to control our border. It’s our responsibility to pick and choose who comes in.”
What’s next for the Bush campaign?
Bush comes from a powerful political family that has already won the Oval Office three times before. The problem now is that the unpredictable political stage he stands upon differs greatly from the one his father and brother stood upon. And his poll numbers are highlighting that difference, and not in Bush’s favor.
So what’s different this year? He’s considered an “establishment” candidate, which means many people expected for him to run and he already has a lot of party insiders backing him. And among his challengers this year are a lot of newcomers and outsiders — neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and celebrity billionaire Donald Trump.
These candidates successfully gained a lot of traction by painting themselves as people who are not inside the D.C. political class. The mostly less-than-politically-correct rhetoric of Carson and Trump are appealing to a lot of voters who are wary of this so-called political class.
And Bush is not the only established candidate who is overshadowed by outsiders. On the right presumed frontrunners like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.) and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker are also in polling freefall. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is slowly cutting away at Clinton’s support base on the left.
With this in mind, Bush’s family name could potentially work against him, though it’s too early to say there’s no chance for him to bounce back. Jeb Bush has established himself as the “smarter brother.” He has been on a mission to court Latino voters by speaking Spanish and stating his commitment to Latino communities. Given some time and more attention to his campaign, this could be the strategy that puts Bush on the ballot in 2016.
More Info:
- The New Yorker: Testing Time
- New York Times: Jeb Bush on the Issues
- New York Magazine: Bush in the Wilderness
- The Atlantic: Will Latino Voters Support Jeb Bush?
- Los Angeles Times: In Jeb Bush’s Foreign Policy Speech, George W. Bush Goes Missing
- Gistory: Hillary Clinton: The Comeback Candidate
- Gistory: Marco Rubio: The Ambitious Freshman
- Gistory: Scott Walker: The Ideal Traditional Conservative?
