ASU Hockey Week 6

The first game against Penn State was bad, monumentally bad. 7–0 is the worst loss since their 8–0 loss November of last year (also against Penn State). I’m by no means an expert at evaluating hockey, but nothing about that game looked good. Passing seemed off, not too many high quality scoring chances, and poor defensive play. Daccord’s performance being the one exception, as he has been throughout the season.

Game two was great, and Gruber’s goal was probably the most excited I’ve been for a goal in a while. ASU was still outmatched, but it looked like there was a chance this time. This game continued the trend of the Sun Devils doing better on Saturdays whenever they are away from Oceanside.

Sometimes I actually get to watch games.

The prediction of an ASU loss 3.43–3.37 was definitely not met in the first game, but was close the next game. Starting next week I’ll be trying to evaluate how well the projections are doing more quantitatively.

Scoring Still Isn’t There

Only putting up 2 goals over the weekend did not do great things for projected season point totals, with both replacement players and returning players projections declining after the series with Penn State.

Players who were around last year
Players who weren’t

The season totals for the returning and replacement players are now 122 and 30, respectively.

The Brightside

Game 2 against Penn State saw Walker and Garcia on the board for the first time in a long time (Walker’s first point since game 3, Garcia’s first point this season).

Compared to last season, the special teams has improved. The differential between goals scored while up a man and goals allowed while down a man is dramatically better now than it was at this point last season. 5v5 play hasn’t shown the same improvement, tracking last season pretty well.

It will be interesting to see how this year’s team does without an 11–0 victory padding the stats.

Matchup Projection: Holy Cross

The projected score for a matchup against Holy Cross is 3.37–2.15 with the Sun Devils taking the loss. The Penn State series had the lowest projected goal differential but had a 7–0 loss. I am interested to see what this larger projected goal differential turns out to be.

Easy to see why the model chose Holy Cross as the winner.

The matchup of stats above assumes a Daccord vs Berrafato goaltending matchup. Holy Cross wins out in all categories, ASU will have their work cut out for them.

Bonus Graphs

Goal differentials in different scenarios, compared to last season.

Not allowing shorthanded goals is doing good things for the overall goal differential.

Note: in the goal differential graphs, EAGs are treated as power play with 1 man differential, shorthanded goals in all scenarios are treated the same, and empty net goals are ignored.