Why the Padres going after Joey Gallo again is the right move
During the 2021 trade deadline, the Padres made a push to trade for Rangers All-Star OF Joey Gallo, but missed out on the sweepstakes after he was traded to the Yankees. When the Padres were originally targeting Gallo last deadline, they were also trying to get rid of Eric Hosmers contract, which is part of why the Rangers declined and eventually accepted the Yankees deal. And now, after about a little over half a season, Gallo could possibly be on his way out already.
Enter AJ Preller
In Spring Training, the Padres and Yankees had actually had discussions about a potential trade, but nothing had been agreed on due to the Yankees had “believed to have been seeking a return befitting his ability, not his recent achievements.” But now, through the first 2 months of the season, Gallo has struggled, to the point where he isn’t starting everyday. Some may say that he might need a change of scenery, a fresh start. This is where AJ Preller and the Padres come in — again.
The Padres now have another opportunity to acquire him, and can definitely pull it off this time, especially since they have been reported to be interested in him, again. Preller has often went back and acquired players that he scouted/acquired during his time with the Rangers, and Gallo could be another addition to the already lengthy list. (Alfaro, Martinez, Mazara, Profar)
Potential Overall Resurgence
The Padres are a team that are primarily known for their pitching, their rotation specifically, but have some holes in their outfield, which will allow Gallo to fit right in and likely play everyday which could potentially help him find his stride and return to the All-Star caliber player he was in Texas. If the Padres do end up trading for Gallo, this would likely allow him fully return to his natural position, right field.
Gallo has always been an amazing fielder, however during the majority of time with the Yankees, he has been playing in left field, which he is significantly worse at compared to how he is in right field.
Let’s compare these differences, statistically. Throughout Gallos career, in left field he has put up a total of 3 DRS, -0.7 UZR/150, and -2 OAA which isn’t too bad, but compared to his statistics in right, they aren’t exciting whatsoever. Now, in Gallos career in right field, he has put up 32 DRS, 9.6 UZR/150, and 10 OAA. While a minor change, it makes a massive impact in optimizing his defense value, which improves his overall WAR value.
Why has Gallo struggled offensively lately?
Gallo’s struggles this year can make it hard to see how he can help a middling Padres offense, but Gallo has much more to offer than what he’s shown so far. Gallo has continued his usual style of play, which embodies the three-true outcome play style, but has gotten less results than usual. Why? Well, as you know Gallo strikes out a LOT, and this year his strike out percentage has again gone up. Part of this could be because of a possible change in approach, which has led to his first pitch strike% to go up, by a whopping 10.4% since last season, to a total of 64.5%.
To put the difference in approach into perspective, we can compare how he had been hitting in his best season of his career to now, through these counts. In 2019, through 0–1 counts, Gallo held a wRC+ of 78. Now, in 2022 through 0–1 counts, he holds an even worse 24 wRC+, and with this happening 12.3% more often compared to 2019. Gallo falling behind in counts earlier with an already absurd strikeout rate has caused himself to be easier to take care of from a pitchers perspective and has created a form of regression.
Match Made in Heaven
Now, I could have included this section with Potential Overall Resurgence, but this deserves its own because of how important the potential move could be, for both Gallo, and the Padres.
Again, the Padres offense has had its struggles, but one of the bigger reasons it has struggled has been because of the lack of hitting homeruns. With just 64 currently, that ranks 24th among all teams in the Major Leagues, which coincidentally is the same rank they have for team ISO.
Obviously, Gallo is a huge power threat and usually among the best in league ISO, placing 16th in the entire league in 2021, which would again obviously bolster the “weak” Padres lineup, while also fitting their offensive style of drawing walks, which they currently rank 8th in the league.
Additionally, another way Gallo will help bolster the Padres offense, is through pulled fly balls. Pulled fly balls are very important, especially when it comes to hitting homeruns. Gallo currently ranks 12th among all players with 50 PAs that end in flyballs, with 38.0%. The Padres, rank 13 of all teams, wich 24.1%. Adding Gallo to this, would improve another part of the offense yet again.
The Big Picture
Based off all of these factors, finally acquiring Gallo would not only be worth it, but would also be one of the best possible things the Padres can do to improve their current roster — especially if they hope to go on a potential deep run to the Fall Classic.
