US Open First Round Preview: American men
The first round of 2017 US Open will feature 19 American men, the country’s highest total since 2008[1]. That number is indicative of the great progress being made by the current crop of American players on tour, and certainly adds to the allure of the season’s final grand slam. Given the dearth of top players in this year’s tournament, fans have an interesting opportunity to focus on the non-superstars playing in the event. In particular, American tennis fans attending the tournament’s opening round will have nineteen different opportunities to watch American men in singles action. As our way of helping those fans out, we at the Great Shot Podcast Network have ranked the matches based on their various degrees of appeal. Rankings of each player, playing styles, match implications, and of course, the potential quality of the tennis, were all used as factors when determining these rankings. These opinions are of course our own, and as always, we are happy to debate them with anyone kind enough to read this article. We’ll start with match #18, and work our way up to our favorite match.
Category 1: Go if front row, otherwise skip
19. Patrick Kypson vs. Adrian Menendez-Maceiras
The USTA always awards a main draw wild card to the winner of the Boys 18’s National Championship at Kalamazoo. The wild card offers the victor an excellent chance to compare his game to that of his peers, and a unique opportunity to jump-start his career. Former champions participating in this year’s draw include Frances Tiafoe, Jack Sock, and Donald Young. This year, 17 year-old Patrick Kypson dropped only two sets on route to securing his first ever ATP main draw appearance. Few highlights exist for either Kypson or his opponent, though fans should expect Kypson to come out nervous, as any 17 year-old making their first slam appearance would. Kypson moves well for someone his age, but we suspect his relatively weak second serves[2] will have him on the defensive quite a bit. As Kypson’s highlights display an affinity for coming to the net, he will need a high first-serve percentage to succeed during this match.
Menendez-Maceiras, a 31 year-old Spanish qualifier at this year’s tournament, is currently ranked #148, and has never cracked the top 100 in his career. He won two challenger titles earlier this year, and only dropped one set in his three qualifying victories. This will be his third career slam appearance, and his first one since 2013. It is unlikely that this match will be placed on a prominent show court, however fans that have time should certainly try to catch a few glimpses of this showdown. Given the lackluster hype around the match, you’ll likely be rewarded for your journey with a front row seat.
18. Tim Smyczek (Q) vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber (update)
After Murray’s withdrawal, Tim Smyczek’s position in the draw was changed. Initially, Smyczek drew fellow American Sam Querrey. He now faces German veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber. Smyczek is as classy as they come, and is certainly a joy to watch. However, it is unlikely that he possesses enough weapons to defeat a player of Kohlschreiber’s caliber.
17. Donald Young vs. Maximillian Marterer
There are multiple reasons why Donald Young’s match falls this low on the list. This may be Young’s 13th straight US Open appearance, but he currently has a 9–12 record at the event. Ranked #57, Young went 2–4 after Wimbledon, and most recently lost to 20-year old American Tommy Paul in straight sets. Given Young’s rough summer results, his draw comes as a major blessing to his end-of-year prospects. Marterer, ranked #124 in the world, is a 22 year-old German playing in his first ever slam main draw. He has not won a main draw ATP match all year long, and most recently lost to Frances Tiafoe in straight sets at Cincinnati. Sufficient to say, neither player enters this match in particularly excellent form.
Both of these players are lefties, and we suppose there’s something to be had from watching such a unique matchup. Nevertheless, given the abundance of excellent first round matches, we will not spend much time watching this one. We expect Young to earn a much-needed first round victory, and hope to watch him play more later on in the week.
Category 2: For nerds who like watching up-and-coming players
16. Ernesto Escobedo vs. Radu Albot
It’s been a disappointing summer for American #NextGen prospect Ernesto Escobedo. Though Escobedo earned his place in the main draw on ranking, he has gone 1–4 on the ATP tour since Wimbledon, and recently lost in the first round of qualifying at Cincinnati. Though he is only 21 years old, Escobedo stock has cooled off relative to his American contemporaries. Given the successes of Jared Donaldson, Tommy Paul, and Taylor Fritz this summer, Escobedo must use this match as an opportunity to gain momentum for the 2018 season.
Attendees of this match should expect huge serves, incredibly powerful groundstrokes, and disappointingly below-average movement out of Escobedo. His opponent, Radu Albot, is a 27-year-old qualifier from Moldova. This is Albot’s fourth straight US Open appearance, though he has yet to advance past the first round. At 5ft9, Albot excels at grinding down his opponents, and out hustling them to that extra ball. The contrast in styles should make for an excellent match, and the hope is that Escobedo will be able to over power his more experienced opponent. Fans will certainly hear the pop coming off of Escobedo’s racquet echoing throughout the Flushing Meadows grounds. As such, one might as well go check his match out as well.
15. Chris Eubanks vs. Dudi Sela
14. Thai-son Kwiatkowski vs. Mischa Zverev (23)
13. JC Aragone (Q) vs. Kevin Anderson (28)
Who says going to college can’t help your tennis prospects? While Kwiatkowski, a recent Virginia graduate, earned his main draw appearance by winning the NCAA individual singles tournament, both Aragone and Eubanks capitalized on the momentum from their excellent college seasons to earn berths in this year’s tournament. It is truly astounding that Aragone, who played 5 singles for Virginia this past season, was able to come through and qualify for the main draw. Aragone did not learn of his entry into qualifying until the day before the tournament started, and he had never played in an ATP tour event prior to this tournament. To be able to win three straight qualifying matches is a testament to Aragone’s mental strength. Eubanks, a rising senior at Georgia Tech, received a wild card, and he certainly earned it. This summer, he reached the quarterfinals of the BB&T Open, and successfully qualified into his first masters event at Cincinnati. It is fortunate that these three young professionals drew veterans of the tour, as they will each have an excellent opportunity to gauge their games against the tour’s best.
The choices of which match to attend will come down to the style of play you prefer to watch as a fan. The best phrase we can think of to describe Kwiatkowski’s game is a conundrum. He can easily produce 120-mph winners both on his serve and off of the ground, yet he often falls behind and is forced to play defense. Kwiatkowski’s court coverage is quite impressive, however his passing shots can be equally erratic. Given that he is playing Mischa Zverev, it is imperative that Kwiatkowski capitalizes on any opportunities to play offense, and that he not allow himself to consistently fall behind during the point.
Aragone faces a similar challenge in Kevin Anderson. Aragone is an excellent athlete, and he is able to produce tremendous power on all of his groundstrokes. He manufactures excellent kick on his serve, and has tremendously crafty hands at the net[3]. Unfortunately, Kevin Anderson’s power will likely limit the amount of offense Aragone is able to play. Additionally, given Anderson’s height, Aragone’s kick serve will not be as damaging as usual. For Aragone to have any chance in this match, he must do his best to limit the amount of dictating Anderson does. While this may lead to a higher number of unforced errors, it will give Aragone his best chance to succeed.
Chris Eubanks has the most winnable matchup of the three. Eubanks is almost a foot taller than his opponent, world #71 Dudi Sela. Sela is a counterpuncher, and a player who relies on the power of his opponent. As Eubanks prefers to dictate and take aggressive cuts at the ball, he should enjoy this matchup. If Eubanks can make over 55% of his first serves, play aggressively, and keep the unforced error count on the backhand low, he could find success against Sela. However, look for Sela to try to attack Eubanks’s still developing one-handed backhand.
12. Tommy Paul vs. Taro Daniel
11. Jared Donaldson vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili
Two of the biggest winners from this year’s US Open Series were American #NextGen stars Tommy Paul and Jared Donaldson. The duo produced victories at multiple ATP events, and both defeated world #16 Lucas Pouille this summer. Tommy Paul won matches in Atlanta, at the Citi Open, and in Cincinnati, and is currently a career high #157 in the rankings. Donaldson did not lose a first round match this summer, and reached his first ever ATP quarterfinal in Cincinnati. He is on the precipice of cracking the ATP Top 50, and is currently the highest ranked of the nine American #NextGen stars.
As neither player has a particularly enticing opponent, choosing which match to attend comes down to your preferred style of tennis. Tommy Paul is fast as hell, and does not quit on any ball. He is quite consistent, and is occasionally able to produce magnificent winners while on the run. Because Paul’s second serve remains a weakness, he often becomes defensive during rallies. Some people enjoy watching counter punchers. Others prefer the big bangers. If you enjoy the later, Donaldson is the player for you. Though only 6ft2, Donaldson produces tremendous power off of the ground. He consistently dictates to his opponents, and spontaneously goes for winners throughout his matches. When Donaldson is on, it is truly a spectacle to see. Unfortunately, like any big banger, Donaldson suffers from lapses of inconsistency. Given his form of late, we expect Donaldson to perform quite well, and thus we give his match the slight bump over Tommy Paul’s.
Category 3: Former Junior Slam champions
10. Bjorn Fratangelo vs. Ivo Karlovic
9. Jack Sock (13) vs. Jordan Thompson
Matches placed in Categories 3–6 will all feature a high level of tennis, and as such, will likely be better attended then the previous matches. If you hope to attend these matches, we recommend that you get to the court 15 minutes prior to the matches’s start, that way you will be able to secure yourself a comfortable spot.
It is likely that American tennis fans are more familiar with the name Ivo Karlovic than they are with Bjorn Fratangelo. Fratangelo, a former Junior French Open singles champion, is currently ranked #129 in the world. Now 24 years old, he received a wild card into the main draw, and faces an incredibly large[4] challenge in Dr. Ivo. Fratangelo lost at Newport this summer to the other giant on tour, John Isner, and should know what to expect from Karlovic. Like most Karlovic matches, it will likely come down to how well Karlovic serves. Fratangelo must also serve well, as one break of serve is usually a kiss of death against Ivo. Karlovic matches are never too long, so try to get to this match as quickly as possible if you hope to see Fratangelo play.
In their 2017 Davis Cup quarterfinal meeting, Jordan Thompson defeated Jack Sock 63 36 76 64. Since that meeting, Sock has lost in the first round of the French Open, lost in the second round of Wimbledon, and has gone 10–8 overall. Contemporaries Sam Querrey and John Isner have ended the season quite well, meaning Sock must win a few rounds at this tournament if he hopes to end the season as the top ranked American. Half of the ATP top 10 has withdrawn from this tournament. If ever there was a time for Sock to break through, it is now.
Category 4: The College Graduates
8. John Isner (10) vs. Pierre-Hugues Herbert
7. Evan King (Q) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta (12)
Full disclosure, the Great Shot Podcast network is biased towards former college tennis players on tour. Specifically, all three members of the podcast have taken classes at or graduated from the University of Michigan. Thus, while we will watch Isner play, we will be glued to Evan King’s match.
For Isner to be seeded 10th this late in his career is a testament to the constant dedication he shows his craft. In Herbert, Isner faces one of the top doubles players in the world. Herbert is accustomed to playing quick points, and understands the importance of placing the return well. He will also look to come forward on his own serve, and try to force Isner into making as many passing shots as possible. Herbert’s on-court intelligence and game style may give Isner difficulty, but he lacks the power to keep Isner on the defensive. This match will certainly feature moments of brilliant offensive shot making, but expect Isner to advance in a relatively quick match.
Congratulations to Evan King on qualifying for his first ever grand slam main draw. As a result of his first round appearance, King rises to a career high #249 in the rankings. He will likely receive the largest payday of his career, and has a great result to build off of for the 2018 season. Carreno Busta, a top 20 player on tour, is an incredibly tough draw for King. King will have to play his absolute best tennis, and hope that his lefty game throws his opponent off. Having attended a few Evan King matches before, look for him to try and rally the crowd around him. He is an extremely enjoyable player to watch, and we highly recommend you stop by his match.
Category 5: Dark Horse Candidates: The California Kids
6. Steve Johnson vs. Nicolas Almagro
5. Sam Querrey (17) vs. Gilles Simon
4. Taylor Fritz vs. Marcos Baghdatis
The three dark horse American candidates to succeed at this year’s US Open all come from the Sunshine state. American tennis fans are quite familiar with both Querrey and Johnson by now, however they both appear to be sleeper candidates at this tournament. Querrey has had an excellent second half of the season, reaching the Wimbledon semifinals in London, and winning an ATP title in July. He drew into the Alex Zverev quarter of the draw, and should Querrey survive to face Zverev in the quarters, he would enter the match with more grand slam experience. Querrey has never been known for his consistency, but given that he is playing in front of a friendly home crowd, fans should expect to see him in top form. Gilles Simon is a nice player, but he does not have the weapons to hurt Sam.
Another of the #NextGen American stars; Taylor Fritz will soon become a household name for American tennis fans. He was ranked as high as #59 in the world in 2016, but skipped this year’s clay court season and subsequently fell in the rankings. After successfully qualifying at Wimbledon, Fritz received a wild card into this year’s US Open. In Marcos Baghdatis, Fritz faces a tour veteran who loves to pull the trigger and go for winners. Patience is not Fritz’s strong suit, however if he is able to survive the initial Baghdatis onslaught, he will be able to display his powerful groundstrokes and advance into the next round. Fritz’s serve keeps him alive in most matches, but it is his returning ability that distinguishes him from his young American peers. Do not be surprised if you see Taylor Fritz win a few matches here.
Category 6: Brad Gilbert better be in the booth for these
3. Ryan Harrison vs. Tomas Berdych (15)
2. Tennys Sandgren vs. Marin Cilic (5)
1. Frances Tiafoe vs. Roger Federer (3)
If ESPN does not have the prime time team covering these three matches, they will have committed an inexcusable offense. Fans should already be quite familiar with five of these players. In case you have forgotten about Ryan Harrison, we’ll remind you now that last year he had to go through qualifying to make the main draw. Harrison, 25 years old, currently sits at #47 in the world, and has had a resurgent season. His movement remains his greatest strength, and he has become a far more consistent player with age. Berdych no longer remains the force he once was, but he is still heavily favored coming into this match. Should Harrison defeat Berdych, it would be the best victory of his career. However, even if he loses, Harrison has had an excellent season, and he deserves to be placed on a prominent show court for this match.
If you think you have a funny pun about someone named Tennys playing tennis, we encourage you to provide it in the comments below. However, trust us, it isn’t funny. Despite his name, Tennys Sandgren has made sure players on tour now take him seriously. Now 26 years old, Sandgren has recovered from multiple injuries to reach his first two grand slam main draws this year, and received direct entry into the US Open based on his ranking. He originally drew Andy Murray in the first round, but following Murray’s withdrawal, was given a slightly easier first round matchup. He plays Marin Cilic instead. Sandgren’s movement, as well as his handlebar mustache, should help lengthen this match, and will ensure that fans get to see at least an hour and a half of tennis. However, Sandgren’s game lacks the adequate weapons to hurt a player of Cilic’s caliber. Expect this match to be scheduled early on one of the Stadium courts, and do not be surprised if Sandgren steals a set from the former US Open champ.
Finally, our number one match!!!! Yes, it helps that Roger Federer is one half of the match. However, if anyone saw Frances Tiafoe play at last year’s US Open, you know just how exciting it is to watch him play. Tiafoe lost in five close sets to Isner in last year’s first round, and enters this year’s US Open ranked inside the ATP top 75. He recently defeated number four seed Alex Zverev in Cincinnati. If the transitive property means anything to these players, Tiafoe should have plenty of confidence entering this match, as Zverev defeated Federer in Montreal just 3 weeks ago. Tiafoe is a bundle of athleticism, and can produce miraculous shots from anywhere on the court. Tiafoe’s mechanics need refinement, and he lacks the necessary firepower to consistently hamper Federer. However, given Federer’s inauspicious exit in the Montreal final, it is unwise to assume he will steam roll Tiafoe. While we can’t in good consciousness predict a Tiafoe upset, we will happily go out on a limb and say he will win at least one set during this match. This will be a primetime match, if not the opening night match on Arthur Ashe Stadium court. Here’s to hoping there will be cheap tickets on StubHub!!!!
Author: Alex Gruskin, American Tennis Enthusiast, way past his prime, Host of the Great Shot Podcast
Editor: Max Fliegner, Dartmouth tennis player, now pre-med, Producer of the Great Shot Podcast
[1] Thanks for the stat @jokelley
[2] Again, an exceptional serve for someone his age, but not quite ATP level yet.
[3] Shoutout to college doubles. It’ll teach any player how to properly volley
[4] See what I did there….
