Russell Westbrook’s Final Frontier
Russell Westbrook just averaged a triple double for a full season. He’s the NBA’s reigning MVP, and a nearly unstoppable athletic force on the court. He was the alpha and omega for a good Oklahoma City Thunder team, that completely fell apart without him on the court. Westbrook did everything that could ever be asked of a player, and more. In the end, that may have been detrimental to his teammates and their ultimate collective success, but to suggest that he is capable of “doing more” than he did last year would be, if not utterly insane, entirely unfair.
And yet, that is what we demand of the NBA’s highest caliber players. That Westbrook’s year culminated in a first-round playoff loss is considered a black mark on his record, made all the worse by the incredible play of Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, and Steph Curry- all of whom made far deeper, more impressive postseason runs, despite performing slightly below Westbrook’s level in the regular season.
There are other factors to be considered here. It’s easy to look at the talent surrounding some of those other players, and say they had more of a supporting cast. That’s certainly true for James, Durant, and Curry, and probably applicable to Leonard as well. Still, part of the Thunders’ role players’ inability to have a meaningful impact, or at least to be perceived as doing such, was likely tied to Westbrook’s overemphasis within the team system. Ultimately it doesn’t matter much. OKC’s ceiling wouldn’t have shifted if Steven Adams had a few more touches in the post, or if Victor Oladipo got a couple more opportunities to initiate the team’s offense.
The Thunder were limited by their collective talent, and while maximizing Westbrook’s success may have come at the expense of others’, the final outcome likely wouldn’t have shifted with a more egalitarian approach. OKC will have more firepower this year. They’ve added a superstar in Paul George and a quality stretch four in Patrick Patterson, and retained the services of Andre Roberson, one of the league’s best defenders (and worst shooters). It would be surprising if they’re ready to really challenge the Warriors in a truly meaningful way, but they’ve definitely gotten closer.
They’ll be looking for incremental ways to continue to close that gap. One conceivable way of doing so comes in the form of internal improvement from the team’s star player, specifically his long-range marksmanship. Westbrook has been a bad three-point shooter throughout his career. Not once in his nine years in the NBA has he cracked the league-average mark.
Westbrook’s inefficiency from deep kept him gun shy from downtown for the beginning of his career. He averaged just 1.4 three-point attempts per game in his first three seasons. That number slowly began to increase as his star grew, however, despite not showing much improvement in efficiency. In seasons four through eight, Westbrook jacked an average of 4 triples per game, and last year he upped hist attempts to 7.2. That’s some fairly reckless chucking, but in Westbrook’s most recent campaign there came a glimmer of hope. His .343 three-point shooting percentage was just a hair below the average rate for the league, and more than enough to be defined as respectable.
If Westbrook can continue to hit at that rate, or even if it dips slightly, his game will remain at an MVP level. If he could improve it to an above-average mark, he might see himself competing for titles. It’s not so much that improved three-point shooting would lead to a direct, noticeable jump in Westbrook’s scoring output. Hitting threes at a league average rate would only have upped his scoring average by a tenth of a point last year, and the most he stood to gain from doing so in any season to date was a quarter of a point per game. That’s not totally meaningless, but it pails in comparison to what above-average three-point shooting from Westbrook might mean for the Thunder structurally.
If Westbrook were a truly credible threat from deep, defenses would be forced to re-calibrate their pick and roll coverages. Opponents defending those actions currently have the luxury of simply dropping under the screen and daring Westbrook to shoot. If he were more of a threat, opposing bigs would be forced to either show aggressively, switch, or trap, none of which are likely to end well when Westbrook is orchestrating the offense. Making that point of decision in the pick and roll more challenging increases the pressure for defenses, opening up new cracks to attack, and potentially creating matchups to be exploited in isolation. Those things don’t happen as readily if Westbrook isn’t perceived as dangerous beyond the arc.
A respectable three-point stroke would also allow the Thunder to play Westbrook in an off-ball role more frequently, lessening his burden offensively, and increasing the ease with which he can break down opposing defenses. When Westbrook is attacking the basket, he’s like a bowling boll, with rockets attached to it, all jacked up on caffeine. He’s nearly impossible to stay in front of. Defenders would have no chance of doing so in rotation if his three-point shooting were sufficient enough to force them to close out aggressively.
This, of course, begs the question of just how realistic it is to believe that Westbrook can turn himself into a plus shooter from distance, and the answer is not very. His most recent season gives some reason for hope, and there aren’t any terribly glaring holes in his form (a tendency to fire rushed, off balance bombs notwithstanding), but the majority of available evidence suggests he’s just not a good three-point shooter, and it’s rare for bad shooters to develop substantially before they begin to lose their athleticism. The more likely scenario for next year is a regression to the mean. Then again, maybe this year is Westbrook’s new normal. Perhaps his most recent season was his big jump, from below-average to respectable. That’s significant. It took him all the way to MVP stature.
Dreaming of Westbrook as a good three-point shooter is the most fun scenario though, and it’s the offseason, so why not choose optimism and hope. It may not be realistic to think Westbrook can thump home threes at an above average rate, but if he could he might be the best player on the face of the Earth (paying attention on defense more often would go along way int hat regard too). It’s not a realistic ask of the man. He’s already incredible. The Thunder aren’t a real threat to the Warriors, though, even with Paul George in the fold. If Westbrook could really shoot from deep, they’d at least have a puncher’s chance.
This piece was written by High Off The Glass creator, contributor, and editor in chief Greg Cassoli. He has an unhealthy obsession with NBA basketball.
